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"Ordinary" theme: Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison

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财友3f1737doView TA's forum collection  View TA's recommendation recordPublished date: 2018-11-29 16:32:33

Title: Gold UserPoints: 15340 attentionAdd to friends Reference score Show author

Buffett always said that he was, "85% of Graham +15% Fisher." But from the perspective of a bystander, perhaps most people think that this ratio is just the opposite. The big leap forward in Lao Ba’s investment achievements was after he was 50 years old, that is, in the 1980s. According to Lin Yuan, “I’m not worth 200 million dollars when he was 50 years old.”

A careful analysis of Berkshire's 77-06 portfolio and the realization of a fortune for Pakistani are the following 10 companies: Washington Post, Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, Gillette (now P&G), American Express, Federal Home Loan Company , government employee insurance company, ABC (later merged into Metropolitan/ABC, and acquired by Disney), PetroChina, Moody's Investment Ratings.

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
You can boldly say that these companies, Graham most will not buy, buy and can not take so long, and Fisher may be just the opposite. To be bold, if Buffett only listens to Graham's teachings, he certainly can't be the world's richest. On the contrary, if he only listens to Fisher's teachings, he still has a high chance to achieve today's results.

Graham's method can occupy such a lofty position in the minds of Pharaoh, more from the historical background of the time. After the Great Crisis of 1929, the Dow Jones index took more than 20 years to return to the high position, which is the bear market that has gone through the index for more than 10 years. At that time, Americans’ views on stocks were the ones that our A shares often said – stay away from drugs and stay away from the stock market!

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
At the same time, the US economy gained rapid development around the Second World War and gradually became the number one economic capital. At that time, the stock market was also gold everywhere. The company whose trading price was within the net asset value but continued to grow in earnings per year and the stock interest rate was much higher than the bond interest rate abounded. Until the mid-1960s, the stock market was re-identified by the American public. Enter the "boiling years." Therefore, Buffett’s method of using Ge’s in the private placement has been very smooth (in fact, many retail investors are eager to hunt for low-priced stocks, looking for stocks with profit, undistributed profits and high capital accumulation funds), but By the end of the 1960s, the stock price had soared and it was no longer possible to provide the original "gold". Buffett also lost his way. In the 1970s, Ba Lao invested in the "Washington Post" and still used the method of Gus.

However, in the 1980s, he recalled that Disney and American Express, which had been bought and sold at low prices, had already provided amazing returns due to long-term growth, and gradually adopted Fisher’s method. This change also made him Became today's Buffett.

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
As you can imagine, in the 1950s and 1960s, the US stock market was similar to the A-share market we had a few years ago. For example, in the late 1960s, the success of the moon landing also triggered a frenzy of the concept of speculation in space, a shoe-making enterprise. After being renamed "Cosmos Holdings", it was fired several times. In this context or in the previous period, what Buffett can find and can be used to practice the first bucket of gold is Graham's set of things, so we can understand Ba Lao to Gee That kind of mood is similar to the worship of the top.

It must be said that Fisher, he and Graham are contemporaries, but they use a completely different approach, and his trading performance is far better than that of Gus. In the 1940s, for growth companies such as Motorola and Texas Instruments. Over 30 years of investment has enabled him to create dozens of amazing investment results. Fisher's thinking was largely influenced by John Keynes, the greatest economist of the last century.

    in conclusion:If you just use "Security Analysis" and "The Intelligent Investors", you can hardly find a way to become Buffett, but "Common Stocks and Can be found in Uncommon Profits and Other Writings.

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
In theory. The difference between Fisher and Graham.

Benjamin Graham is a “low risk” quantitative analyst who focuses on fixed assets, current profits and dividend analysis. His interest lies in the formation of a safe investment that is easily accepted by ordinary investors. In order to reduce the risk, he suggested that investors thoroughly diversify and buy low-priced stocks.

Philip Fisher is a "high-risk" quality analyst, and he is exactly the opposite of Benjamin Graham. He focuses on: can increase the analysis of the company's intrinsic value, development prospects, management capabilities. He advises investors to buy stocks with growth expectations. He suggested to vote The investors will conduct in-depth research and visits before investing. He recommends that investors invest in a centralized portfolio and buy only one or a very small variety of stocks. Fisher's investment management consulting firm has an average annual return of more than 20%, published in 1958. The book Stocks and Uncommon Profits is still the designated textbook for all US investment management institutes.

To sum up: Graham's three views: Considering stock investment as a business operation, a margin of safety, and the stupidity of a marketer can be regarded as an investment rule that can be eternal and effective.

However, Mr. Graham did not follow the first article when he was operating. If you really think of investing as your own business, you will not be able to rise to a reasonable level in 2-3 years when you are doing business. Sell ​​it or sell it once it returns to a reasonable level?"

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
Regarding the margin of safety, Buffett is more affected by Fisher. "It is much better to buy a good company at a reasonable price than to buy a mediocre company at a low price." For Coca-Cola, which believes that Laoba earns the most book profits, in the 88 years, when the old bus was bought at 14.5xPE and 5xPB (the annual earnings per share was 0.36 US dollars, the average purchase price was 5.22 US dollars, and the net value per share was 1.07 yuan. If you calculate it purely from a mathematical point of view, it is not cheap at all. You must know that the interest rate of the US government bond at that time was about 10%.

Regarding the stupidity of Mr. Market, it is a technique that Buffett uses most conveniently. The Washington Post, Gillette, Wells Fargo, Government Employee Insurance Company, and American Express are all classic war cases. However, I personally think that the big stupidity of Mr. Market is often impossible to meet. As long as you buy a good company at a reasonable price, the return is still satisfactory. Moreover, more importantly, in the long history of excellent business operations, it will certainly provide countless opportunities, countless good buying points for investors to enter, not to lose because of the fact that it has risen several times. The possibility of return, as long as you can buy, have an accurate grasp of its prospects and real value, and a reasonable assessment of the price.

    in conclusion:Greenham laid the theory of margin of safety, Fisher established the theory of growth stocks, and Buffett solved how to select high-quality stocks efficiently and accurately.

Personally think that Greenham's safety margin, Fisher's growth stocks, Buffett's franchise rights are equally important, all three are the foundation of Buffett's theory, and they are indispensable. The margin of safety solves the problem of survival, while the other two are the most critical factors for long-term steady and high returns.

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
The importance of the margins of different enterprises is slightly different. For high-quality enterprises with high certainty, the margin of safety can be ranked after the position (still important, the latter point is only relative), while for other companies it should always be supreme. position.

Greenham and Fisher used their own theories in practice and did not achieve the best performance, and all had major failures. Only Buffett perfectly combined the three theories and achieved today's brilliant achievements.

    in conclusion:Throughout Buffett’s entire investment career, the early investment in the Washington Post and American Express completely copied the value investment system of Teacher Graham, and then took the essence of Fisher and Charlie Munger before finally forming his own value. Investment system.

(Peanuts Note, 29/11/2018)

Investment notes: Fisher, Graham, Buffett comparison
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