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The Year of the Pig is a good start

  [2019-02-11 06:59:01] 

The Year of the Pig is a good start

On the last day before the holiday, the volume of the contraction rose. During the period of the stock market, the stock market rose slightly and the news was calm.

  Today, the market should be slightly open or flat. When it comes down, it will focus on the support near 2607. Strong support will be around 2600. When pumping back, pay attention to the pressure near 2630, and the strong pressure is around 2635.

In the news, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism: 2019 Spring Festival tourism revenue of 513.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%; this year's Spring Festival movie total box office more than 5.8 billion It has surpassed last year; China's manufacturing PMI index in January has ended in a six-month downtrend; in the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, the capital market will have 680 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, and on March 13, 393 billion yuan MLF expires, therefore, A total of 106.3 billion yuan of funds expired; Audi sales in China increased by 5.1% in January A record high; Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: launching new energy vehicle planning for 2035; 3 new IPOs are expected to raise 1.347 billion yuan this week; international iron ore futures prices soared 5.8% The crisis in the Vale has intensified supply concerns; the local debt has spurred the issuance of interest rates; the Baltic Dry Index has plummeted by more than 40% in half a month; and the company has acquired US$49.22 million to acquire 26.05% of UTS. Became its first major shareholder; Hagrid Communications: signed a supply contract of 258 million yuan; Shangwei shares: signed a framework agreement and the project won the bid of 461 million yuan Accounted for 50% of revenue in the most recent year; Dongfang Jinyu: Request for change due to control Request to explain the relationship between China Lantian and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; US stocks 6 trading days (February 1 - February 8), the Dow Jones index closed up 0.43%, the Nasdaq index closed up 0.23%; US stocks listed in the middle The stocks mostly fell during the Spring Festival. Alibaba fell 0.67%, Baidu fell 1.58%; Hong Kong stocks from February 4 to February 8 totaled 2 trading days, Hang Seng Index rose 0.06%, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.97%; gold rose 1.1% to 1318 US dollars / ounce WTI crude oil fell 1.8% to $52.7/barrel due to the increase in crude oil inventories.

  During the holiday period, the overall performance of the external index was stable. US stocks and Hong Kong stocks were slightly up and down. Gold futures rose slightly. Crude oil futures fell slightly. The overall impact on the broader market was not large. Only international iron ore futures rose sharply. The crisis in the Vale of a large iron ore supplier has intensified the impact of supply concerns. International iron ore futures rose by nearly 8% during the holiday season, which has a certain impact on the corresponding steel sector. The main advantage is the listing of iron ore. Companies such as Xining Special Steel, Xingye Mining, Hualian Mining, Jiugang Hongxing, Guangdong Pearl.

  Today is the first trading day after the holiday. Historical data found that the Shanghai stock index rose 7 times and fell 8 times on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, with a rising probability of 46.67%. However, from a longer period of time, the probability of the Shanghai stock index rising to 86.67% on the 5 trading days after the Spring Festival, the probability of rising in 10 trading days reached 80%, and the rising probability in 20 trading days reached 86.67%. In other words, within one month after the Spring Festival, the overall market is rising.

  Before the holiday, the market has the SFC's intention to cancel the "closed line" not less than 130% of the unified limit and the CSRC intends to relax the securities company investment constituents, ETF and other equity securities risk capital preparation ratio, etc., leading to the pre-market festival Receiving the shrinkage of the Yangxian line, this Zhongyang line is expected to open the door after the holiday, so the extra-currency funds will enter the market before the holiday. This expectation may induce a good start today, but because the market has no capacity, so everyone Don't expect too much for the opening. The high point may be around 2635. The probability of the market's rise in the 5 trading days after the holiday is as high as 86.67%, but the high point should not be higher than 2665. Then the market will step back. Mainly, the low point is still around 2550 points. The nearby market is expected to stabilize and rebound again. The whole market should be based on the bottom of the whole market in early February. The surge should be carried out until the end of February, because the market will be important at that time. The expectations of the meeting, coupled with the looser funds after the holiday, the overall market trend should be better than last year.

  In operation, the trend cruise is still recommended to be cautious as a whole. The position is still recommended to reduce the position on the rallies, waiting for the opportunity to stabilize after the market is stable. The stocks are still dominated by oversold chips, software, 5G and other theme stocks. For more analysis, please pay attention to "Trend Cruise".

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