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Can you pull out the Zhongyang line today?

  [2019-04-15 06:41:40] 

Can you pull out the Zhongyang line today?

Last Friday's broad market, the last hour of heavy volume rose, the peripheral stock market generally rose, the weekend news is biased.

Today, the broader market should be higher. When it is attacking, it will focus on the pressure near 3220. The strong pressure is around 3250. When it falls back, it pays attention to the support near 3174. Strong support is near 3168.

  After the market fell back last Monday, the whole week was basically in the process of adjustment. There were two main views on the trend in the later stage of the market. One is that the market will continue to pull back. Later, it will step back down to around 3000 points and sing down. There are also a lot of people at 3,000. This group of people are generally friends who are vacant, expecting the market to fall every day, and even cursing the market plunging! Another point of view is that the broader market will start to stabilize and rise. It is expected to break through the previous high of 3,288 points and attack to 3,300 points. This is generally the view of brokers. Most of the opinions of brokers are wrong, but this time we agree with this. The point of view, therefore, last Friday, the market back to step around 3170 points, we shouted everyone to increase the position, then the market began to stabilize and rise.

  The main reason for the weekend news was that the central bank announced the March loan and financing data exceeded expectations.At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance was 188.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year. The net cash for the first quarter was 173.3 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2019, the increase in social financing scale was 8.18 trillion yuan, 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. The scale of social financing in March was 2.86 trillion yuan, estimated at 1.85 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 703 billion yuan. In March, M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year, with an expected value of 8.2% and a previous value of 8%. New RMB loans in March were 1.69 trillion yuan, estimated at 1.25 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 885.8 billion yuan. After the data was released, the Hong Kong stocks that were still trading rose linearly. The Singapore A50 index rose more than 1%, and the colored futures such as copper and zinc rose more than 2%. This situation has many similarities compared with the economic data released on February 15 (Friday). When it opened on Monday, February 18, the A-share market opened higher and hit high, eventually closing at 2.68%.

  On Wednesday, we will also release various data such as GDP for the first quarter. If there is no accident, this data will also exceed expectations, and it will constitute a positive for the broader market. Therefore, it is worth looking forward to the upward selection of the broader market. Later, we will pay attention to the pressure around 3250 points. As long as the market can break through 3,250 points, the market is expected to rise to 3,300 points. But everyone still needs to pay attention to several phenomena:

First, the economic data released this time exceeded market expectations, but compared with the data released on February 15, the market has risen to around 3,200 points. The market was only around 2,700 points, and the market was not the same.

Second, the current size of non-lifting pressure is relatively large. Year-to-date major shareholder reduction has exceeded 100 billion assets. Some listed companies that have announced reductions are straight down or even down. This week, the market value of the ban is over 150 billion, which is the market value of this year. A big cycle, the pressure on the market can not be underestimated;

Third, starting this week, the annual report and the quarterly report will be released intensively. The stocks with violent performance will increase sharply. The new mine will burst out last night. The new continent A will be suspended due to the capital occupied by the major shareholder, and will be ST after the resumption of trading. There is no doubt that the stock market will continue to fall, so everyone still needs to pay attention to the risks.

  Therefore, we feel that after the market's upswing this week, the late market will once again bottom out. The high point of the upside is to look around 3250 points. The limit should be up to 3300 points. Then there will be a callback in the broader market. The probability of post-suppression is relatively large. This is exactly the opposite of our pre-suppression and post-release analysis on Friday. This is also normal. When we went out on Friday, the market did not show any positive data, technically. There is also a step back to the low point near Friday, but we firmly believe that the market is expected to start to rebound, so the introduction of the idea of ​​first suppression and then Yang, but the news of the weekend may change? Going, this is the stock market, the market is ever-changing Friends who like to vomit, please seize the opportunity of this spit!

  In the sector, considering the release of mines in the performance, it is recommended that you avoid the stocks that have risen continuously in the previous period. The overall situation is mainly based on oversold blue chips, such as banks, real estate, engineering infrastructure, etc. For more analysis, please pay attention to “trend cruise”.

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