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Post-holiday market environment is relatively safe (early comment on February 11)

  [2019-02-11 08:08:23] 

    Good morning! During the Spring Festival holiday, the external market environment was stable and there was no significant fluctuation. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose during the week.0.06%, the US Dow Jones index weekly gains0.17%, Nasdaq index weekly gains0.47%. Taking into account the week before the festival, the landmines are everywhere, the goodwill impairment and the performance mines are all blown up. After the holiday, the market environment will be relatively safe.AThe impact of the valuation of the stocks (especially the GEM) and the trade talks held in Beijing on Thursday and Friday.Today is after the holidayAThe first trading day of the stock, there will be this week5Stock announcement only2018Annual report performance. Many investors have expressed their expectations for the annual report market that will appear after the Spring Festival.in2018In the year, financial deleveraging was one of the important factors in suppressing the stock market, but after the middle of last year, this pressure has begun to ease. And the tax cuts that began this year, both for companies and individuals, are expected to beAReconstruction of the stock brings new capital flows. PlusAForeign shares that the stock will join the FTSE Russell Index will also beAThe rise of the stock has laid a solid foundation.

technical analysis:On the technical side, after the Shanghai and Shenzhen main stock index weekly lines formed a divergence, despite the repeated shocks, the platform climbed higher and the stock index was closed before the holiday.20Near the weekly moving average, the signal is obvious. Although European stock markets and international oil prices in the Spring FestivalAThe stock fell during the market, givingAThe trend in the stock market is bringing variables, but in terms of its own rhythm trend, it is expected that the volatility will continue to be a high probability event. but,In the future, there will be only half a year line and the above trend energy line (2635~2650Point) Effective breakthrough, or to confirm the formation of the market bottom, while the weekly and monthly technical indicators are now at a low level, which is conducive to supporting the market to further expand the upside after the Spring Festival holiday. Currently60The daily average has been flat, and it is gradually moving closer to the half-year line that moves down. This is the signal that the market is stable.The current fundamentals are not conducive to a rapid shift from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, but positive factors are accumulating.AAfter the stock valuation has been fully repaired, according to historical statistics,2019The first half of the year is expected to usher in the bottom of the marketThe situation of continuous outflow of funds will gradually reverse.

      Comprehensive analysis:2019In the first half of the year, the continuous adjustment of risk assets will trigger the resurgence of safe-haven assets. With the shift of the Fed's monetary policy and the downward trend of the US dollar cycle, the market will again play the elasticity of the rebound of risk assets in emerging market countries in the second half of the year.2019YearAThe stock market is expected to come out of the irregular yearNThe traditional spring market, in which the fundamentals and external markets are in a relatively vacuum phase, is worth looking forward to.AThe revaluation of the listed companies has laid the foundation for the rise of the market. The performance of listed companies before the holiday changed their face, which is the main reason for the frequent occurrence of stocks, and the main reason for the change in performance is the most common depreciation of goodwill. In the short term, the impairment of goodwill is like a mine, but after the bombing, it is equivalent to releasing a long-term negative in a short period of time. When the stock price of most listed companies is lower than their actual value, it will definitely Attract more funds to enterAIn this way, the impact of the impairment of goodwill is actually a process of “not breaking”.In addition, the current advancement speed of the science and technology board will be possible in the first half of the year. The many institutional innovations of Kechuang Board will bring huge changes to the investment concept of the market. Although we have been calling for the establishment of a value investment concept for many years, the existing system has not made investors have a painful experience. Therefore, its evolution is very slow. After the registration system and delisting system of Science and Technology Board are clear, the market ecology will gradually shift to the "good money to expel bad money", which will be an undoubted trend, so investors should Prepare for the rainy day.

Hot spot analysis:Affected by the interaction between economic fundamentals, such as economic growth, further consolidation, and policy gradual bottoming, from current to2019End of yearAThe stock may experience the stage of risk release and opportunity emergence. The timing is more critical.2019"Industry allocation and theme selection should focus on reverse thinking. The current market may be in the second half of the risk release. Based on the increasingly institutionalized, internationalized, multi-level capital market construction and expansion factors, the fundamentals of individual stocks are required. Improvements, sectors with strong fundamentals and low valuations may have relative returns; at the same time, growth declines, policy bottoming may gradually change from anticipation to reality, focusing on reversible opportunities that are sensitive to policy or extremely pessimistic.It is worth noting that there are a total of pre-holiday47Listed company announced2018First quarter results forecast, including41Home pre-increase,6Home pre-profit. Among the companies that have doubled their prepaymentstwenty fourFamily. Investors can pay attention to the stocks that have a good transcript for the rich transfer plan, annual report and one season report.

                     Desert Eagle (Li Desheng)2019year2month11Early morning In Shenzhen

 Disclaimer:writeBoPurelypeopleXinginterestLoveOk, blog postGenustoOnepeopleEssay,ViewpointonlyFor investmentCapitalByReferencetest,andDo notStructureChengtouCapitalbuildDiscussion. castCapitalAccording to this operation,riskfromnegative.

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