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The rebound comes from economic data (15th early comment)

  [2019-04-15 08:08:28] 

Good morning!Economic data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, exceptCPI rises, another point worthy of attention is the ex-factory price index of Chinese industrial producers (PPI)9For the first time in months, it has risen and has stepped out of the tightening zone. This indicates that China's "economic bottom" has gradually approached. In addition, the first quarter economic data will be released this week. Judging from some of the published data, production activities have recovered more than expected, and signs of economic bottoming have begun to show up. Specifically,3National manufacturing industryPMIRise to50.5%, returning to the top of the line of glory and hitting a new high in the past six months. Due to the peak season of construction, the demand rebounded,3monthPPIYear-on-year increase0.4%, the increase is larger than last month0.3Percentage points. Forecast first quarterGDPSpeed ​​increase6.4%Left and right, the economic growth rate shows a trend from low to high.PPIThe data is better than the ring, and maintaining positive growth for some time in the future will be a high probability event. The superimposed tax reduction and fee reduction policy will be implemented in a large area in the second quarter. In the future, the profitability of the enterprise will be stable, and may even make the profit bottom appear before the economic bottom. Reflected in the capital market, in the future, the denominator (liquidity and risk appetite) will continue to maintain a loose environment with great probability, and the molecular end (performance factor) will add new help. After the short-term suspension of the capital market, the long-term shock upward trend will remain unchanged.The main factors affecting the follow-up market are the level of policy and liquidity, and the direction of future policies may affect the adjustment of the market. The market's recent discussion on whether the central bank is downgraded has not yet been finalized, but the market has basically digested the expectation of RRR cuts, so even if the RRR cut is not expected, it will not have too much trend impact on the market.

Today's financial news:1The deputy governor of the central bank said that China's stock market is showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. Foreign securities investment inflows reached record levels last year.At $120 billion, the inflow potential is rising.2,4month12Day, the central bank released2019year3Financial data for the month and the first quarter, the credit society has fully exceeded expectations, and the scale of social financing has increased.8.18One trillion yuan, more than the same period last year2.34One trillion yuan.3,4month7Japan, the People's Bank of China data show: the realization of foreign exchange reserves5Even rise,3Increased month-on-month85.8One hundred million U.S. dollars.4, General Administration of Customs:3Monthly export growth21.3%Import decline1.8%,First quarter trade surplus5296.7Billion,expand75.2%.5Bureau of Statistics:3Monthly consumer price (CPIYear-on-year increase2.3%return2era;3Industrial producer's ex-factory price in the month (PPIYear-on-year increase0.4%.6Overnight, the US road refers to a big rise269.3Point26412.3Point, FranceCACFTSE100,GermanyDAXEuropean stock markets are rising, SingaporeA50Index futures rose sharply.7International crude oil prices have maintained a rebound trend in five months.8The Baltic Shipping Index maintains an upward trend.

Market review: The stock index showed a downward trend throughout the week. Among them, the GEM fell the most, falling throughout the week.4.59%; Shanghai Composite Index fell for one week1.78%Deep penetration2.72%,weekKLine termination13Lianyang. At the same time, the volume of transactions in the two cities continued to shrink, and the market entered a phased adjustment. The performance of the disk is still active, but the main theme is speculation, such as nuclear power, state-owned enterprise reform, fuel cell and other reforms. The market lacks a clear main line, leading core assets such as White Horse, especially the liquor stocks rose more than expected in the previous few days, but there was a big adjustment on Thursday. Under the market atmosphere of price decline and contraction, the defensive sector has become more active. The industries with the highest growth rate are mainly household appliances, food and beverages, etc. Computers and electronic components with large gains in the previous period have become the leading losers.

technical analysis:Currently enteredAt the beginning of 2018, in the chip-intensive area, the high stagflation was inevitable, and the long and short game became more and more fierce. The main fund also entered the stage of trading in the stock exchange, which may require repeated shocks before it can continue to rise. The good news is that it was announced last Friday.3Monthly social welfare, credit andM2The macro data performance is much better than expected, which is expected to boost the market sentiment. The improvement of economic data is expected to push this round of adjustment to enter the final stage. Looking ahead to the market this week, the main focus is on three aspects: First,3Monthly economic data continues to be disclosed, and the first quarterGDPThe growth rate is also announced simultaneously. Whether the data exceeds expectations will become a key factor affecting the market trend this week. Secondly, the annual report and the first quarter report will continue to be intensively disclosed. Landmine stocks with sharp growth in performance, exceeding expectations and stocks are worthy of attention; In addition, this week's ten liquidity pressures, coupled with the central bank's recent no reversal repurchase operations, it is necessary to pay close attention to central bank regulation and control measures.Comprehensive analysis:The growth rate of social welfare has stabilized, indicating that the future economy is expected to stabilize and improve. Recently, pig prices have raised inflation, although monetary policy is not tightened, but consideringMarch manufacturing boom improved,PMIAfter picking up above the line of prosperity and stagnation, the long-term loans of enterprises have improved, the growth rate of social welfare has stabilized, and the monetary policy has not been relaxed in the short term. The probability of recent RRR cuts has fallen sharply.PMIRecovered in recent months to50Above, though3,4Seasonal factors for the month, but the overall rebound was better than expected. In terms of liquidity, from the perspective of capital needs,3,4The credit data for the month is more critical, or further verify whether the credit union continues the passive contraction situation. From the perspective of interest rates, the recent long-term and short-term interest rates have further declined, but the downward trend has slowed down. Overall, the valuation of the equity market has a supporting effect.

Hot spot analysis:Short-term marketMarchCPIAfter the announcement, it will follow the trend and step back, but the undertaking is still strong, and the overall space for exploration is limited, and there may be a rebound in the short term. From a holistic point of view, with the continuous recovery of the market since the beginning of the year, the role of fundamental support in the market outlook is more important. The market is mainly based on structural differentiation. Combined with the annual and quarterly reports of listed companies, it is advisable to grasp the underestimation and the potential for performance growth. Stable targets: First, the big financial sector, especially the banking sector to drive the market to attack again; second, the low-priced, improved performance of the white horse, as well as real estate leaders, machinery and other large-cap blue-chip; in the annual report disclosure period Within, give up the hype about hotspot concepts and event-driven stocks.


                               Desert Eagle (Li Desheng)20194month15Early morning In Shenzhen

 Disclaimer:writeBoPurelypeopleXinginterestLoveOk, blog postGenustoOnepeopleEssay,ViewpointonlyFor investmentCapitalByReferencetest,andDo notStructureChengtouCapitalbuildDiscussion. castCapitalAccording to this operation,riskfromnegative.



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