turn on
    Mobile finance
    Open APP registered log in

    Home >Bond channel > text

    The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose.

    2019-03-14 09:49:42

    Qu Qing Bond Forum Wang Wenhuan Jin Kexin

    Interest rate bond investment strategy: The market sentiment changed more obviously on Wednesday. In the case of a stock market crash, the bond market yield did not follow the downward trend, indicating that the upward trend of the bond market interest rate was not entirely driven by the stock market rise, but also supported by the fundamentals themselves. In fact, the factors behind the stock market's rise are also factors that support the rise in bond interest rates. Both the future bond and the stock market are returning to the fundamentals, and as the policy continues to advance, the probability of economic stabilization is increasing, and bond interest rates are generally in the upward direction.

    First, the linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose.The linkage between stocks and debts on Wednesday was significantly weakened. The stock market crash did not push the bond market interest rate down. We think it may reflect two changes: on the one hand, the upward trend of the bond market interest rate itself is driven by fundamental factors, not the complete stock market. The rise is driven. Previously, as the stock market continued to rise, the bond market interest rate continued to rise. The market may think that the risk appetite brought about by the rise of the stock market caused a negative impact on the bond market, and the stock market's surge was not driven by fundamental factors, but now the stock market plummeted. The bond market yield rate did not follow the downward trend, indicating that the stock market rise is not the only factor that pushes the bond market interest rate upward. The upward trend of the bond market interest rate also includes the market's expectation of the economic fundamentals. In fact, the stock market rise is not entirely a valuation repair. It also reflects the market's expectations for economic fundamentals improvement and policy stimulus. The factors behind the stock market's rise are also factors that drive the bond market's interest rate upward. On the other hand, for the stock market crash, the market may be more likely to be a temporary correction, and the future trend is still good. After all, the stock market has risen too fast, the profit margin is more, the relatively high position needs to be greatly fluctuated and digested, and the stock market investors are more dispersed, including retail investors, hot money and institutions, which are easily affected by irrational factors, causing large fluctuations and bond market. Investors are more institutionalized and relatively less affected. In addition, the stock market fell sharply last Friday, the bond market yield rate followed the downward trend, but the stock market rebounded sharply on Monday, the bond market interest rate rose again, the market is also worried about repeating the same mistakes, in the case of uncertain stock market continuous decline, do not dare to rush Chasing up the bonds, and the bond interest rate has been going down a lot last week. At that time, the market was expecting more interest rate cuts. The weekend's speech may also slow down the market's interest rate cuts. Therefore, after last week's interest rate downturn fully responded to favorable factors, the stock market's one-day slump did not push interest rates down. In the future, both bonds and stock markets are returning to fundamentals. With the continuous advancement of policies, the probability of economic stabilization is increasing. The bond interest rate will continue to rise in the general direction, and the stock market will still have room to rise.

    Second, the economic data in January-February only fell slightly, and it is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the later period.The January-February economic data will be released on Thursday, forecasting this, and tracking the high-frequency data since March: We estimate that the industrial added value and the zero growth rate in January-February will fall back to 5.5% from December last year. And 8.0%, the fixed assets investment decreased slightly to 5.8% year-on-year, the economic data in January and February did not show a significant decline, the economic fundamentals remained relatively stable, and the impact on the market was estimated relative to the situation without exceeding expectations. limited. Since March, with the start of the construction season, the coal consumption of power plants has rebounded remarkably. The operating rate of blast furnaces has been relatively stable. The economic data is expected to rebound in the later period. At the same time, pork prices have risen sharply since March, and vegetable prices have not fallen seasonally. Will increase significantly.

    Second, the credit bond market concerns: to resolve the impact of local government implicit debt on urban investment bonds

    On Tuesday, the credit bond market was light, and most of the yields rose slightly. Today's market uploads said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has relaxed the conditions for the issuance of corporate bonds by local financing platforms. For the application for new and old debt issuance, it can be free from the upper limit of 50% of government revenue and is issued in a rolling manner. The exchange also requires the use of raised funds to be used only to repay the exchange corporate bonds. If the relevant policies are released, it is expected to alleviate the government's implicit debt pressure to some extent.

    Resolving the implicit debts of local governments on urban investment bonds will help to ease the marginal mitigation. The government's implicit debts may be piloted earlier, which will help alleviate the default risk of urban investment in relevant regions and enhance the local city. The investment value of the investment.

    I. Interest rate bond market outlook: the linkage of stocks and bonds is weakening, and the bottom of interest rates is gradually rising.

    On Wednesday, the bond market was more active, the central bank suspended open market operations, the funds were relatively loose, the treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly throughout the day, and the spot yield also fluctuated slightly. The 10-year country-opening yield was about 1 bp lower than the previous trading day. For the later stage, we need to pay attention to:

    First, the linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose.There was a more obvious change in the market on Wednesday, that is, the stock fell sharply, but the bond market yield did not fall significantly, only a small fluctuation, and the intraday bond market yield did not follow the stock market volatility, the seesaw effect between the stock bonds disappeared. . Looking back at the trend of the interest rate bond yield and the Shanghai Composite Index since the beginning of the year, we can see that there is a clear seesaw effect between the two. After the stock market continues to rise, the interest rate bond yield is also gradually rising. The callback, the bond market interest rate will also have a downward trend, but the general direction is oscillating upward, and the bottom of the interest rate is rising. The linkage between stocks and debts on Wednesday was significantly weakened. The stock market crash did not push the bond market interest rate down. We think it may reflect two changes:

    On the one hand, the upward trend of the previous bond market interest rate is driven by fundamental factors, not the full stock market rise.Previously, as the stock market continued to rise, the bond market interest rate continued to rise. The market may think that the risk appetite brought about by the rise of the stock market caused a negative impact on the bond market, and the stock market's surge was not driven by fundamental factors, but now the stock market plummeted. The bond market yield rate did not follow the downward trend, indicating that the stock market rise is not the only factor that pushes the bond market interest rate upward. The upward trend of the bond market interest rate also includes the market's expectation of the economic fundamentals. In fact, the stock market rise is not entirely a valuation repair. It also reflects the market's expectations for economic and economic fundamentals improvement and policy stimulus. The factors behind the stock market's rise are also factors that drive the bond market's interest rate upward.

    On the other hand, for the stock market crash, the market may be more likely to be a temporary correction, and the future trend is still good.After all, the stock market has risen too fast, the profit margin is more, the relatively high position needs to be greatly fluctuated and digested, and the stock market investors are more dispersed, including retail investors, hot money and institutions, which are easily affected by irrational factors, causing large fluctuations and bond market. Investors are more institutionalized and relatively less affected. In addition, the stock market fell sharply last Friday, the bond market yield rate followed the downward trend, but the stock market rebounded sharply on Monday, the bond market interest rate rose again, the market is also worried about repeating the same mistakes, in the case of uncertain stock market continuous decline, do not dare to rush Chasing up the bonds, and the bond interest rate has been going down a lot last week. At that time, the market was expecting more interest rate cuts. The weekend's speech may also slow down the market's interest rate cuts. Therefore, after last week's interest rate downturn fully responded to favorable factors, the stock market's one-day slump did not push interest rates down. In the future, both bonds and stock markets are returning to fundamentals. With the continuous advancement of policies, the probability of economic stabilization is increasing. The bond interest rate will continue to rise in the general direction, and the stock market will still have room to rise.

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

    Second, the economic data in January-February only fell slightly, and it is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the later period.We will release economic data for January-February on Thursday, and we will forecast this and track the high-frequency data since March:

    In terms of industry, the average daily coal consumption of the 6 largest power generation groups in January-February was around 600,000 tons, down 10.9% year-on-year. The decline was significantly larger than that in December last year, but since March, it has increased to 5% year-on-year. After the company gradually resumed work, production resumed; the average operating rate of blast furnaces in January-February was 65.2%, up 2.3% year-on-year, and fell slightly to 2.0% year-on-year since March. The overall operating rate of blast furnaces was relatively stable; The average daily output of crude steel in China is 2.423 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year. According to data from China Automobile Association, automobile production in January and February fell by 12.1% and 17.4% respectively, a decrease from January to February. The PMI production index continued to decline in January-February, especially in February, affected by the Spring Festival, falling below the glory line to 49.5%. The new order index returned to the line of glory in February after a decline in January. on. In general, due to the influence of the Spring Festival factor, it is estimated that the industrial added value will drop slightly to around 5.5% in January and February. Industrial production is expected to rebound with the start of construction in March.

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

    In terms of investment, real estate investment, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities in January 30 fell sharply by 11.2% year-on-year, but it rebounded to 8.3% in February, and fell by 4.7% year-on-year in January-February, including the cumulative transaction area of ​​first- and third-tier cities. The rebound in the second-tier cities has fallen sharply year-on-year, and has dropped slightly to 2.2% year-on-year since March. In January, the land transaction area of ​​large and medium-sized cities fell by 7% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in February further expanded to 22%. Among them, first-tier cities rebounded year-on-year, mainly due to the significant year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities. Last year, due to the impact of land acquisition fees, real estate investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.5% year-on-year. This year, with the weakening of the purchase fee effect, real estate investment may face certain downward pressure. But the magnitude is relatively limited. Previously, the NDRC also mentioned in the 2019 investment form outlook that the real estate investment in the first quarter of 2019 will continue to grow rapidly in the first quarter of the real estate project. Therefore, the decline in the first quarter will be relatively limited.

    In infrastructure investment, local debts in January and February were issued 418 billion and 364.2 billion respectively. The issuance of local bonds in advance this year will be conducive to the recovery of infrastructure investment. At the same time, the project approval, the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission at the end of last year increased significantly. In February, despite the large-scale rain and snow weather and the Spring Festival in the southern region, the sales volume of excavators dropped sharply year-on-year due to the high base of last year. However, the cumulative sales in January-February still increased by 14.3% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively high growth rate. Since the fourth quarter of last year, infrastructure investment has gradually recovered. It is estimated that infrastructure investment will continue to rise in January and February. However, considering the Spring Festival and weather factors, the estimated rebound rate is relatively limited, and the recovery rate is expected to increase in the later period. The NDRC also mentioned 2019. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth. On the whole, we estimate that the fixed assets investment in February fell slightly to around 5.8%.

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

    In terms of consumption, according to the data of the China Automobile Association, car sales in January and February fell by 15.8% and 13.8%, respectively. The decline was larger than that at the end of last year. However, in February, it was narrowed compared with January, and the sales volume of the car is expected to bottom out. Pick up. Consumption during the Spring Festival this year was 8.5% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year, but still higher than the zero-year comparison at the end of last year. Real estate sales fell in January-February, which may affect real estate-related consumption. In addition, oil prices are continuing to rise in January and February, and it is expected to increase oil and product consumption. Therefore, it is estimated that the social zero in January and February will fall slightly to around 8.0%.

    On the whole, we estimate that the industrial added value and the zero growth rate of the government in January and February will fall back to 5.5% and 8.0% respectively compared with last December. The fixed assets investment will fall back to 5.8%, and the economic data in January and February will not be There has been a significant decline, and the economic fundamentals have remained relatively stable. Without over-expectation, the estimated data has little impact on the market. In March, with the start of the construction season, economic data is expected to rebound.

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

    In terms of inflation, the Statistics Bureau released the inflation data for February, and the CPI fell to 1.5% due to the high base. Since March, the impact of the sharp decline in pig production capacity has gradually emerged. The reduction in supply has led to a sharp rise in pork prices. Vegetable prices have not fallen as much as in previous years after the Spring Festival, mainly due to the rainy weather in the south this year. More, it affects the growth of vegetables, but as the weather gets warmer in the near future, prices may gradually decline in the later period. In commodity prices, steel prices rose slightly, cement prices continued to fall, and international crude oil prices rose. Considering the disappearance of high base effects and the rise in food prices, we estimate that the March CPI is expected to rebound to more than 2% year-on-year.

     The linkage of stocks and debts weakened, and the bottom of interest rates gradually rose. Jianghai Securities and Asset Management Bond Daily Report 20190313

    Interest rate bond investment strategy: The market sentiment changed more obviously on Wednesday. In the case of a stock market crash, the bond market yield did not follow the downward trend, indicating that the upward trend of the bond market interest rate was not entirely driven by the stock market rise, but also supported by the fundamentals themselves. In fact, the factors behind the stock market's rise are also factors that support the rise in bond interest rates. In the future, both the bond and the stock market are returning to the fundamentals. As the policy continues to advance, the probability of economic stabilization is increasing, and the bond interest rate is generally upward or upward, and the stock market still has room to rise.

    Second, the credit bond market concerns: to resolve the impact of local government implicit debt on urban investment bonds

    On Tuesday, the credit bond market was light, and most of the yields rose slightly. Today's market uploads said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has relaxed the conditions for the issuance of corporate bonds by local financing platforms. For the application for new and old debt issuance, it can be free from the upper limit of 50% of government revenue and is issued in a rolling manner. The exchange also requires the use of raised funds to be used only to repay the exchange corporate bonds. If the relevant policies are released, it is expected to alleviate the government's implicit debt pressure to some extent.

    By the end of 2018, the ratio of China's local government debt balance to comprehensive financial resources was 76.6%, and the internationally popular warning line was 100% to 120%. However, how many hidden debts have been paid attention to under the icebergs on the surface of the sea, implicit debt or The financial risks caused by the people are worrying. Before the two sessions, the Ministry of Finance stated that the new local government implicit debts will not be allowed to show up, indicating that the state is determined to eliminate new implicit debts and resolve stock debts.

    The implicit debt of local governments, that is, the debts formed by local governments in the legal limits of illegal financing or disguised borrowing by the financing platform companies, the current local government implicit debt mainly faces the following risks: 1. Local government financing demand is strong, financial institutions The existence of “government credit illusion” has a strong supply willingness, which leads to a high scale of local government debt driven by supply and demand. 2. On the one hand, the financing model is diverse and the scale is growing rapidly, some of which involve real stock bonds, drawer agreements, and commitments to buy back. On the other hand, local government implicit debt lacks unified identification standards and statistical caliber; 3. Debt investment is mostly medium- and long-term infrastructure, with long cycle and slow return, compared with the source of funds. Shorter, through the borrowing of new and old rolling debt to maintain the flow of funds, in addition, mutual insurance between platform companies is more serious, if liquidity risk is easy to pass; 4, from the data released by the central bank, the ratio of county-level implicit debt Far above the provincial level, the risk is greater. 5. In the process of regulating local implicit debt, the risk exposure of financial institutions may be increased, and the financial risks are finally passed on to the financial sector.

    How to resolve the hidden debts of local governments, on the one hand, we must do a good job of resolving the stocks. So we have piloted in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, to replace non-standard debts through borrowing, and many banks such as CDB will provide long-term low-interest loans to solve the short-term funding period. The problem of high financing costs, the relevant policies of the Shanghai Stock Exchange are basically the same as the principle of the pilot. It is expected that more banks will participate in the settlement of hidden debts of local governments in the future, and the risks can be transferred through the transfer of related rights; On the one hand, to control incremental growth, it is necessary to strengthen the management of financial institutions, control the inflow of funds from the source, and strengthen the monitoring of government implicit debts, rationalize the central local fiscal and taxation authority system, and improve local government revenue and expenditure. The degree of matching.

    Resolving the implicit debts of local governments on urban investment bonds will help to ease the marginal mitigation. The government's implicit debts may be piloted earlier, which will help alleviate the default risk of urban investment in relevant regions and enhance the local city. The investment value of the investment.

    Hot searchStock bond linkage

    Editor in charge: Robot RF13015

                    Must not look

                    Top Comments

           
    comment share it