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    The effect of abandoning debts and buying stocks

    2019-03-14 10:44:03

    Shanghai Securities News Lu Haiqing

    Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the A-share market has been outstanding. As of March 11, the average increase of the equity fund's net value during the year exceeded 20%, and the purchase amount also increased significantly. Last year, the best-selling bond fund has been eclipsed this year. According to industry insiders, as market risk appetite continues to rise, the bond-selling effect of stocks is expected to increase, but the bond market still has fundamental support, and the market outlook is not pessimistic.

    Debt baseWeakened attraction

    Choice data shows that in January this year, the average yield of pure debt funds (including long-term pure bond funds, short-term and pure-term bonds) was 0.42%; since February, the yield of pure debt funds has dropped significantly, as of March 11 On the day, the average net increase in the net debt of pure debt funds was only 0.14%.

    The Tianhui Fund researcher from the third-party sales channel revealed that the recent rise in the equity market has led to a significant decline in bond fund purchases. Many investors have chosen to redeem bond funds to buy equity funds.

    Bluestone Asset Management said that from the emotional level, the current equity market is still relatively hot. With the creation of the board and the registration system, investors' preference for equity assets has increased significantly. “The cargo base and the debt base are still facing greater redemption pressure. The fund’s “debt investment” may be one of the factors that lead to the current stock market.” They analyzed.

    From the data point of view, the increase in risk appetite has formed a significant suppression of interest rate bonds. Since February, both the short-term and medium-term interest rate bond yields have risen. As of March 11, the 1-year bond yield was 2.39%, up from 4BP on February 1, and the 10-year bond yield. Reported 3.16%, up 5BP; 1-year state-owned bond yield was 2.51%, up 2BP, 10-year state-owned bond yield was 3.67%, up 5.75BP.

    In contrast, the A-share market is booming. From February 1 to March 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 17.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.75%, and the GEM Index rose 40.7%. In the view of Chen Ruojin, director of the fixed income department of the Red Earth Innovation Fund, since the beginning of 2019, the equity market has experienced a wave of rapid growth. The long-end interest rate represented by the 10-year government bond is reflected in the trend of twists and turns and range fluctuations. Stocks and long-end interest rates have shown a strait market, which is an important feature of large-scale asset rotation since the beginning of the year.

    The bond market will still have fundamental support

    In the face of the adjustment of the bond market since the Spring Festival, both the seller analyst and the fund manager who holds the chips have emphasized that the fundamental basis of the bond market has not been shaken, and it is not pessimistic about the bond market.

    Northeast SecuritiesIt is believed that the bond bull market pattern is expected to continue in the first half of the year due to weaker fundamentals and looser funds.

    According to Zhao Wei, director of the fixed income department of Nord Fund, the current bond market adjustment is more because the expectations of market participants have changed. He believes that when the price of the bond market and the equity market fully reflects the staged expectations, the market will return to the path of fundamentals to determine the market trend. Therefore, he is not pessimistic about the bond market and expects the investment value of bond assets to be more obvious in the short-term adjustment.

    Chen Ruojin agrees with this: "The bond market still has fundamental support, and there are many structural investment opportunities worthy of grasping."

    As for the specific opportunities, Chen Ruojin said that the credit bonds with good qualifications in the real estate and urban investment industries, some of the real-time performance, the prospects of the industry, the convertible bonds that have not been overvalued, and the staged trading opportunities of long-term interest rate bonds It is worth exploring and grasping.

    Hot searchStock debt Seesaw effect Fundamental

    Editor in charge: Lu Shan RF10057

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