The proportion of low-rated debt issuance declined in the first quarter

1comment 2019-04-15 10:36:26 source:Wen Tao Macro Bond Research Author:Huang Wentao Zeng Yu Zhang Junrui The second beauty energy comes!

  Investment points

  This week's observation:The proportion of low-rated debt issuance declined in the first quarter

  The proportion of low-grade bond issuance continued to decline in the first quarter.Financial regulation leads to a significant decline in investor risk appetite, making weak qualificationsCorporate bondThe difficulty of issuance has increased, as the proportion of low-rated bond issuance has continued to decline. We observe the non-financial credit bonds (short-term, medium-ticket, corporate bonds, corporate bonds and orientation tools). The low-subject rating (subjective rating is lower than AA, including AA), the proportion of bond issuance, found that the first quarter of this year, low-grade industrial bonds The issuance amounted to 92.575 billion yuan, the total amount of industrial bonds issued was 14012.205 billion yuan, and the amount of low-grade industrial bonds issued accounted for 6.61%, which continued the downward trend in 18 years. In the first quarter of this year, 169 low-grade industrial bonds were issued, and the total issued industrial bonds were 1092. The number of low-grade industrial bonds issued was 15.48%, which was slightly lower than 13.26% in the fourth quarter of last year, continuing the downward trend since 2016.The proportion of low implied rating issuance has dropped significantly.Observing the low implied rating (implicitly lower than AA-, including AA-), the proportion of bond issuance shows that the low implied rating issued in the first quarter of this year was 79.07 billion, accounting for 5.35% of the total industrial bond issuance. Since 2017, the quota has declined and reached its lowest point since 2014.

  Market tracking:This week (4.8-4.14), a total of 177 industrial bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total circulation of 176.72 billion yuan, a change of 105.89 billion yuan from last week. The total repayment amount was 105.418 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 71.302 billion yuan. Weekly changes were 35.942 billion yuan. Secondary market: The short-term and medium-term ticket yields are all up, and the 5Y is the highest. The difference between the historical short-term and the short-term ticket yield is still mainly the rating difference. AA-level 1Y, 3Y is above 55%, and 5Y is above 75%. The medium and high grades are around 30%; the credit spreads are all shrinking, and the credit spreads historical quantile AA- is basically around 90%.real estateIndustry spreads are expanding,coal,SteelwithUtilitiesIndustry spreads shrink,steel industryThe spread shrinks the most. Among the 20 industrial bonds with the highest change in yield, 17 yields fell, and the largest decline was17金洲01.

  Investment Strategy:There is still a long way to go before the profitability is improved, but the market risk appetite is improving, and the risk of default will also fall back. At present, it should be properly subsided on the basis of anti-default.

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First, this week's observation: the proportion of low-grade bond issuance decreased in the first quarter

  The proportion of low-grade bond issuance continued to decline in the first quarter.Financial supervision has led to a significant decline in investor risk appetite, making the issuance of weakly qualified corporate bonds more difficult, as the proportion of low-rated bond issuance has continued to decline. We observe the non-financial credit bonds (short-term, medium-ticket, corporate bonds, corporate bonds and orientation tools). The low-subject rating (subjective rating is lower than AA, including AA), the proportion of bond issuance, found that the first quarter of this year, low-grade industrial bonds The issuance amounted to 92.575 billion yuan, the total amount of industrial bonds issued was 14012.205 billion yuan, and the amount of low-grade industrial bonds issued accounted for 6.61%, which continued the downward trend in 18 years. In the first quarter of this year, 169 low-grade industrial bonds were issued, and the total issued industrial bonds were 1092. The number of low-grade industrial bonds issued was 15.48%, which was slightly lower than 13.26% in the fourth quarter of last year, continuing the downward trend since 2016.The proportion of low implied rating issuance has dropped significantly.Observing the low implied rating (implicitly lower than AA-, including AA-), the proportion of bond issuance shows that the low implied rating issued in the first quarter of this year was 79.07 billion, accounting for 5.35% of the total industrial bond issuance. Since 2017, the quota has declined and reached its lowest point since 2014.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

Second, the market tracking

2.1

Release

This week (4.8-4.14), a total of 177 industrial bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total circulation of 176.72 billion yuan, a change of 105.89 billion yuan from last week. The total repayment amount was 105.418 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 71.302 billion yuan. Weekly changes were 35.942 billion yuan.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

2.2

Yield to maturity and credit spread

  This week (4.8-4.14), the rate of national debt-investment rose, and 3Y rose the most; the historical quantile of yield was about 34.61%, 5Y was slightly higher; the average AA+ yield of commercial banks was 3M and 6M, and 3M was higher. many.Specifically, the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year state-owned bond yields were at 30.97%, 36.51% and 38.24%, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year and 5-year state-owned bond yields changed by 7.05BP, 9.3BP and 7.88BP to 2.66%, 3.36% and 3.68% respectively; the three-month and six-month commercial bank ordinary debt AA+ yields changed respectively. 14.77BP and 7.82BP to 2.95% and 3.05%.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

  This week (4.8-4.14), the short-term ticket yields were all up, and the 5Y upside was the most; the difference between the historical short-term and the short-term ticket yields was still mainly the rating difference, AA-level 1Y, 3Y was above 55%, and 5Y was at 75. Above the %, the medium and high level is around 30%; the credit spreads are all shrinking, and the credit spreads historical quantile AA- is basically around 90%.Specifically: the 1-year short-term ticket yield quintiles AAA, AA+, AA and AA- reached 33.27%, 27.69%, 23.44% and 57.46% respectively; the 5-year short-term yield yield quantiles AAA, AA+, AA and AA- reached 30.22%, 25.02%, 36.47% and 78.82%, respectively. The AAA-level short-term one-year, three-year and five-year yields were changed by 2.3BP, 3.3BP and 5.17BP, respectively; the AA+ short-term one-year, three-year and five-year yields were changed by 0.3BP, 1.3BP and 6.17, respectively. BP; AA-level short-term one-year, three-year and five-year yield changes of 0.3BP, 1.3BP and 5.17BP; AA-class short-term one-year, three-year and five-year yield changes of 2.3BP, 2.3BP and 5.17BP. The 1-year short-term ticket credit difference digits AAA, AA+, AA and AA- reached 50.38%, 26.79%, 15.75% and 84.85% respectively; the 5-year short-term credit benefit difference digits AAA, AA+, AA and AA- They reached 29.46%, 21.33%, 38.43% and 92.99% respectively. The credit spreads of AAA-level short-term tickets for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were changed respectively -4.75BP, -6BP and -2.71BP; the short-term one-year, 3-year and 5-year credit spreads of AA+ grades changed respectively -6.75BP , -8BP and -1.71BP; AA-class short-term ticket 1 year, 3 years and 5 years credit spread change - 6.75BP, -8BP and -2.71BP; AA-class short-term ticket 1 year, 3 years and 5 years Credit spreads vary -4.75BP, -7BP, and -2.71BP.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter [CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

2.3

Major industry spreads

This week (4.8-4.14), the real estate industry spreads widened, the coal, steel and utilities industries contracted, and the steel industry's spread contracted the most.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter [CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

2.4

A voucher with a large change in valuation

Of the 20 industrial bonds with the highest change in yield this week (4.8-4.14), 17 yields fell, and the largest decline was 17 Jinzhou 01.

[CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

 [CITIC Construction Investment Industrial Debt] The decline in the proportion of low-rated bond issuance in the first quarter

Keyword reading:Rating debt issued

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