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    Visiting the second-tier city property market: the real estate is not "snoring"

    2019-02-11 04:01:07

    China Securities Journal Peng Yang Liu Lizhen Wang Kaiwen

    “We arranged the duty during the Spring Festival, which is normal business, but basically two or three groups of customers will see the house one day.” The salesperson of a real estate in Beijing’s South Third Ring Road told China Securities Journal, during the Spring Festival and after the holiday, There are no promotions for the property.

    In Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, and Fuyang City, Hubei Province, China Securities Journal also found that the property that was known as “the Spring Festival is not fighting” did not appear to be selling well during the Spring Festival, and the sales office was very popular. The overall stability.

    The second-tier city property market is obviously cooling

    "I have been working since the New Year's Eve. There are not many people who come to see the house during the holiday. We can sell two sets of real estate every day." A sales manager in a property in Nansanhuan, Xi'an told reporters. The property has a high rate of de-conversion in the early stage. At present, except for a building that has not been sold, the rest of the floor has been basically sold out.

    From the price point of view, the property has not changed significantly. The sales manager said: "We opened in August last year, and there has been no price increase until now. Part of the reason is that there is a requirement that the first sale opening should not exceed 3% in three months."

    Among the buyers in twos and threes, some buyers said frankly: "Before a while ago, the house prices are indeed stable, not as crazy as before."

    In Nanjing, many real estates are also open during the Spring Festival, such as the Blu-ray Black Diamond Mansion in Chengdong and the Gaoke Ziwei Hall in Xianlin. Some of the normally operating properties are planned to attract customers during the Spring Festival to prepare for post-holiday sales.

    "The customers who come to see the house during the Spring Festival are mostly locals in Nanjing." The sales staff of a real estate in Nanjing told reporters that the number of customers received every day is basically a single digit, and it is mainly based on wait and see.

    A home buyer said: "There are few new buildings opened before the Spring Festival, and many real estate projects have been pushed to the opening of the festival. I am taking advantage of the Spring Festival to have a look, and then carefully compare and start later."

    Third-tier cities, property market prices are shrinking

    In Fuyang City, Hubei Province, the reporter visited Shanshui Tanxi, Minfa Hanjiang Yipin, Hanjiang Dream and other sales offices. In addition to the Hanjiang Yipin new building opened in January, other properties have not yet launched a new one.

    “During the Spring Festival, the sales office was on holiday.” Mr. Zhao, the marketing director of Shanshui Tanxi Project, told reporters that the rate of decontamination was relatively high last year, and few new ones can be pushed.

    Fuyang is a third-tier city, and the biggest feature at present is to improve the concentrated release of sexual demand. For example, the newly opened Hanjiang Yipin is a typical high-end real estate, and the newly launched 300 houses have already sold 90%. The third-tier city is a regional center. There are also some counties and cities and some developed towns and towns. Due to the development of urbanization, the residents of these areas actually regard the third-tier cities as one of the preferred targets for living. In addition, first- and second-tier cities are limited in purchases, and migrant workers are less likely to purchase houses because of restrictions on purchases. They may also come to third-tier cities to buy houses. Benefiting from these factors, the third-tier cities as a whole showed a steady trend of bidding and improved demand.

    From the perspective of housing prices, Mr. Zhao said that housing prices will stabilize this year. The main reason is that the scale of monetization of the shed has been reduced and the way of construction has also changed. The monetization compensation has been changed to the real estate and the monetary compensation. The way, therefore, the demand generated by the shed has been greatly reduced, and the overall market turnover will also shrink.

    According to the report of the China Index Academy, the decline in the scale of the sheds will weaken the demand for third- and fourth-tier cities, and there will be greater adjustment pressure on the sales of commercial housing. From the perspective of price, the market in the third- and fourth-tier cities has experienced excessive prosperity in the past two years, and there has been an overdraft in the room for housing price increases.

    The transaction is expected to fall

    The flatness of the property market during the Spring Festival may be a microcosm of the whole year. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said: “The current market is in the expectation of cooling. From the real estate sales office, blind sales promotion may not bring the transaction volume up, so the rhythm will also Slightly slower."

    “Policy determines short-term demand, and real estate sales are mainly affected by mortgage loan and provident fund loan conditions.”Everbright Securities(Hong Kong stocks 06178) macro analyst Zhang Wenlang said that the central bank's depositor survey showed that from June 2018, the proportion of home buyers expecting house prices to rise began to decline, reflecting the wait-and-see attitude in the market began to increase. Mortgage and provident fund loans in 2019 may only be marginalized.

    Shen Yi, a researcher at the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that as the effects of regulation continue to appear, it is expected that the overall property market turnover will fall back and the market will return to rationality.

    According to Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the primary goal of developing the real estate market is to continuously improve the housing level of residents. One of the key points is to support the demand for first-time home purchases by residents. Through the establishment of a sound policy housing financing system and ease the relationship between short-term money supply and demand, the phenomenon of high interest rates in the first-home loan market will be improved, and the repayment burden of residents' first-time home purchases will be effectively reduced.

    Zou Linhua said that people should reasonably support the needs of residents to improve their housing and moderately guide the upgrading of housing consumption. For residents who need to “sell one buy one” for a certain period of time, they should create transaction convenience and tax deductions from the system. Through the role of the market filtering mechanism, the housing conditions of more residents will be improved.

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    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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