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The two associations will mention the real estate tax. What is the signal for this mention? (Legislative progress)
Securities Times NetworkZhang Da
Every official statement of real estate tax can trigger people's sensitive nerves.
Following the clearing of the “steady promotion of real estate tax legislation” in the government work report on March 5, the real estate tax law was again mentioned at the second meeting of the 13th National People’s Congress on March 8 and immediately attracted wide attention.
The formulation of this time is "concentrating the efforts to implement the major legislative issues established by the Party Central Committee, including deliberation of the Civil Code, the formulation of ... real estate tax laws and other legislative investigations and drafting, and we must step up our work to ensure that they are completed on time."
Coincidentally, on March 8, many Hong Kong property stocks fell sharply in the end. Someone immediately linked it to the news of the real estate tax.
So, what is the new meaning of this real estate tax? Is the fall of China property stocks related to it? What is the impact of the real estate tax? When will it be introduced?
Re-raising real estate tax ▲▲▲
Following the clearing of the “steady promotion of real estate tax legislation” in the government work report on March 5, the real estate tax law was again mentioned at the second meeting of the 13th National People’s Congress on March 8.
To understand this formulation correctly, it is still necessary to look at the complete expression in light of the language environment at the time:
"This year we must promptly formulate laws to deepen market-oriented reforms, expand high-level openness and urgently needed laws, accelerate the promotion of legislation in the areas of people's livelihood, national security, intellectual property protection, social governance, and ecological civilization construction, implement the statutory principles of taxation, and improve the state institutions. Legal system. Concentrate on the implementation of major legislative issues determined by the Party Central Committee, including reviewing the Civil Code, enacting the Criminal Law Amendment (11), the Basic Health and Health Promotion Law, the Real Estate Tax Law, the Export Control Law, the Community Correction Law, and the Civil-Military Integration. Development Law, Retired Military Security Law, Administrative Disciplinary Law, Amendment to Securities Law, Active Military Officer Law, Military Service Law, People's Armed Police Law, Organic Law of the National People's Congress, Rules of Procedure of the National People's Congress, Biosafety Law, Yangtze River Protection Law, etc. Investigating and drafting, we must step up our work to ensure that it is completed on schedule.
What's new in this formulation? ▲▲▲
From this complete statement, the real estate tax law has not been separately stated, but is included in many legislative matters.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the laws followed by the text will be subject to legislative investigation and drafting, and work must be stepped up to ensure that it is completed on time, and there is no legislative completion in terms of grammar. "The real estate tax law has clearly stated in the Prime Minister's work report that it is 'steadily advancing'. Steady means that it is carried out in a certain step with certainty. Compared with the previous meaning of 'stable', that is, stable and reliable, the real estate tax gradually enters the formulation process. Among them, the speed of real estate tax landing is expected to accelerate."
Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, told the Securities Times reporter that the development of the real estate tax law in 2019 refers to the formation of a text, but it does not necessarily enter the first-instance. The above-mentioned pile of legislation has entered the current (13th) People's Congress legislation in the past year. From this statement, there is no change in the caliber.
A real estate tax law expert also told the Securities Times reporter: "This statement did not see a new formulation."
However, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, believes that the legislation on real estate tax has a positive signal. This work was obviously disturbed in 2018, especially the Sino-US trade friction, but the idea of advancement remains unchanged. By 2019, this work will accelerate, especially in combination with long-term mechanisms.
What is the impact of real estate tax on home buyers? ▲▲▲
Real estate tax is a comprehensive concept, and all taxes that are directly related to the real estate economic operation process are real estate taxes. In China, including real estate business tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, real estate tax, urban land use tax, urban real estate tax, stamp duty, land value-added tax, deed tax, farmland occupation tax.
Real estate tax andCommon peopleClose relationship, many people have concerns about this.
However, Yan Yuejin believes that ordinary people do not need to worry too much about real estate taxes. There are three main considerations:
First, the legislation and promotion of real estate tax is the reform content of the fiscal and taxation system, and it cannot be simply understood that the real estate market should be pressured to be taxed. This is the establishment of a favorable fiscal and taxation system. In particular, from the perspective of real estate, the transaction link will be tax-deducted in the future, similar to the recent VAT surcharge and stamp duty, and the holding link will increase taxes. This is a structural change.
Second, even if the real estate tax is levied, it does not have much to do with the buyers themselves. For example, Shanghai's per capita housing below 60 square meters is not taxed. The area is basically considering the need and improvement demand, so it has little effect on this part of people. Even if it is taxation, it is roughly estimated that the tax amount is estimated to be 0.1% of the house price, and it is not a big cost, or the taxation will be more cautious, and many concepts of tax reduction and tax exemption will be considered.
Third, for real estate taxes, ordinary people will ask two questions, that is, do not want to buy a house? Will house prices fall? For whether to buy a house, from the point of view of self-occupation, it should be sooner rather than later; and from the housing price itself, if the real estate tax is actually implemented, it will force some landlords to rent the house, which is good for housing prices and encourage leasing. Market development.
What is the impact of real estate tax on the real estate market? ▲▲▲
At the end of the day, Hong Kong stocks fell sharply across the board. At the close, Hang Seng China's mainland property index fell 5.17%, Sunac China fell 10.89%, Longhu Group fell 5.35%, and Country Garden fell 5.18%.
For today's Hong Kong property stocks fell sharply, some people linked it to the new news of real estate tax. In this regard, Yan Yuejin believes that real estate tax legislation has a slight negative impact on the property market. This time, real estate stocks fell, which is related to the lack of confidence in the market after the recent market high. It also reflects that the macroeconomic fundamentals have not completely improved. The market is difficult to continue to be strong, and the news of real estate tax appears to more easily aggravate the decline in real estate stocks.
For real estate enterprises, real estate tax policies are likely to affect sales, which in turn affects land acquisition. Yan Yuejin believes that the impact of real estate tax on the market in the short term will not be too great, and they are still in the discussion stage. Housing enterprises should still have their own investment routes.
However, Zhang Dawei believes that real estate tax is a comprehensive concept, but a tool, not a panacea. Real estate tax only includes a comprehensive concept of real estate links such as stock trading. What is the future impact, or the policy content of the landing, including exemptions, Tax rate, tax base, etc.
When will the real estate tax be introduced? ▲▲▲
Everyone is most concerned about the introduction of real estate tax. A top ten real estate executives told the Securities Times that the real estate tax law legislation, as part of the fiscal and taxation system reform, has nothing to do with the real estate market regulation. The essence is to solve the local government taxation problem. In the case of economic downturn and unstable property market, the possibility of landing this year is very small. Perhaps it is only the draft and the deliberation.
Yang Hongxu also believes that the real estate market began to fall in August last year. The property market is not suitable for real estate tax during the downturn. It is estimated that it is difficult to complete real estate tax legislation this year.
Zhang Dawei also believes that the steadily advancing property tax will take a certain period of time, and the legislative process is long. At present, it is actively preparing for the draft stage. It is unlikely that the implementation will be implemented within three years. It will follow the “legislative advance, full authorization, and step-by-step promotion”. The principle of promoting real estate tax legislation and implementation.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that from the perspective of legislation, at least five core links must be taken: First, the project and the legislators are established, that is, the organizational structure needs to be built. Second, investigations and studies do not rule out that Shanghai and Chongqing will be the focus of research, and that hot issues such as the recent pool area will also be included in the survey, as well as research on international historical experience. Third, the issuance of the Exposure Draft, it is estimated that this draft of the Exposure will take at least one year and will be more cautious than other laws. Fourth, the review, that is, the assessment of the market impact after the real estate tax is levied, should be carried out in conjunction with the concept of the analog rights law. Fifth, the release, this process is not expected to appear until 2022, that is, in the past few years will be carried out in the basic work of legislation.
Real estate tax legislation progress ▲▲▲
Since 2018, the real estate tax legislation process has begun to accelerate, and the Securities Times reporter has sorted out the relevant real estate tax statements for a year:
1 On March 4, 2018, Zhang Yesui, deputy secretary-general and spokesperson of the 13th National People's Congress, said in a reporter's question that the real estate tax legislation was drafted by the National People's Congress Standing Committee's Budget Working Committee and the Ministry of Finance. Accelerate the work of drafting and perfecting the draft law, arguments on important issues, and internal consultations, and strive to complete the preparatory work for the initial review of the Standing Committee.
2 On March 5, 2018, the "Government Work Report" clearly stated that the local tax system should be improved and the real estate tax legislation should be steadily promoted.
3 On March 7, 2018, Vice Minister of Finance Shi Yaobin said that the National People's Congress Standing Committee Budget Working Committee, the Ministry of Finance and other relevant parties are currently drafting and improving the draft real estate tax law. The general idea of real estate tax is to advance legislation, fully authorize, and promote step by step. Follow this general idea. At present, we are designing, perfecting, and at the same time conducting argumentation and listening to opinions.
4 On March 11, 2018, the National People's Congress Standing Committee's work report stated that in 2018, it will continue to strengthen legislative work, implement the statutory principle of taxation, and study and formulate real estate tax laws.
5 On March 25, 2018, Minister of Finance Liu Kun said that this year, according to the principle of “legislation first, full authorization, and step-by-step promotion”, the real estate tax legislation and implementation will be promoted.
6 On April 27, 2018, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress announced the 2018 legislative work plan, and the real estate tax law was included in the preliminary review project. The investigation and drafting work should be carried out by relevant parties, and the review should be arranged in 2018 or later.
7 On July 16, 2018, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics Mao Shengyong said that from the perspective of the next step of development, the issue of housing prices should be further strengthened and improved on the one hand, and further exerted from the supply side, including Accelerate the implementation of real estate tax-related policy measures, achieve multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee, accelerate the implementation of a series of supporting policies such as renting and selling rights, accelerate the construction of long-term mechanism, better promote the stable and healthy development of real estate, and better realize "The house is used to live instead of being used for speculation."
8 On September 7, 2018, the Legislative Affairs Working Conference of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress was held. The real estate tax law was included in the legislative plan of the 13th National People's Congress Standing Committee and was included in the first-category project, that is, the conditions are relatively mature, and it is proposed to be deliberated during the term of office. The draft law is the responsibility of the Budget Working Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and the Ministry of Finance.
9 On March 5, 2019, the "Government Work Report" clearly stated that the local tax system should be improved and the real estate tax legislation should be steadily promoted.
10 On March 8, 2019, the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress proposed to concentrate on implementing major legislative issues determined by the Party Central Committee, including reviewing the Civil Code, enacting amendments to the Criminal Law (XI), and basic medical health and health. Promotion Law, Real Estate Tax Law, Export Control Law, Community Correction Law, Civil-Military Integration Development Law, Retired Military Security Law, Administrative Disciplinary Law, Amending Securities Law, Active Military Officer Law, Military Service Law, People's Armed Police Law, National People's Congress Organization Law, The rules of procedure of the National People's Congress, the Biosafety Law, the Yangtze River Protection Law and other legislative investigations and drafting must be stepped up to ensure that they are completed on schedule.
Editor in charge: Robot RF13015
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