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In the first two months, the land market has cooled significantly. The third-tier cities have opened up the volume and price drop mode.
Securities dailyDu Yumeng
Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute recently published the "40-year land market report in February 2019", showing that in February, 40 typical urban land transfer income was 137.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.6% from the previous month and a decrease of 27.5%.
Wang Ruochen, a researcher at Yiju Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that since the second half of 2018, the phenomenon of land circulation has increased in the country, and the land market of some hot cities has shown a significant cooling trend. In 2019, the land transfer fee fell for the second consecutive month, but the current policy and economic environment have not changed significantly. It is expected that this downward trend will continue in the future.
The data shows that in the first two months of this year, the accumulated income of 40 typical urban land transfer fees was 355.35 billion yuan, a sharp drop of 20.9% year-on-year, continuing the year-on-year decline in 2018. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth rate of accumulated land transfer income at the beginning of 40 cities, it is basically the same as the accumulated land transaction area at the beginning of 40 cities. The downward trend since June 2018 is more obvious, and it began to turn negative in December last year.
In February of this year, the average transaction price of 40 typical cities was 4,194 yuan / square meter, up 1.7% from the previous month and down 11.3% year-on-year. The land price fell significantly compared with the same period in 2018. Since April 2018, the average transaction price of 40 cities has stabilized at around 4,200 yuan / square meter.
Wang Ruochen said that the average annual price increase of the 40-city land transaction has fluctuated all the way since it peaked in September 2016. It entered the negative range in March 2018. Since October, the land transaction area of the first-tier cities has increased, and the transaction structure has changed. The decline in the land price of 40 cities has narrowed. It is expected that in the first half of 2019, the average price increase of 40 cities in the first half of 2019 will continue to be in the negative range.
Wang Ruochen believes that from the perspective of sub-cities, first-tier cities are implementing strict control measures. In the case of the total land supply and core land supply in some cities, the transaction area and transaction average price have increased, but overall The premium rate remains at a low level. Some hot-spot second-tier cities are also continuing to implement more stringent regulatory measures. The land market in second-tier cities has shown a trend of falling in both volume and price. After the third-tier cities entered 2019, they reopened the mode of price and price decline. The real estate market in this kind of city has already been in the stage of adjustment since the end of the plate rotation, and it is expected that the land price will continue to adjust in the future.
Wang Ruochen said that in this year's "Government Work Report", the government's keynote is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and steadily promote real estate tax legislation. The policy on the real estate market has not been relaxed, and it is still based on “stable”. It is expected that there will be no change in a short period of time. As the financial pressure on housing enterprises gradually intensifies and the market expectation changes, the national land market will continue. Cool down.
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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