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    Bureau of Statistics: The overall economic operation in January and February was stable.

    2019-03-14 10:10:34

    Financial sector website 

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics on March 14th, in January-February, under the guidance of Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, all departments in various regions conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and adhered to the general tone of steady progress. Adhere to the new development concept, persist in promoting high-quality development, adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, increase employment stability, stabilize finance, stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign investment, stabilize investment, stabilize the implementation of expected policies, and continue to operate the economy rationally. The interval is maintained in a stable, stable and progressive development trend, and the trend toward a good trend is gradually emerging.

    First, the service industry is growing steadily, and the modern service industry is developing rapidly.

    In January-February, the national service industry production index increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of December of the previous year. Among them, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services industries increased by 26.5% and 7.9% respectively. The growth rate was faster than the national service industry production index by 19.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively; the financial industry grew by 5.9%, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of December of last year. In February, the service industry business activity index was 53.5%, which continued to remain above the glory line and continued its good development. The business activity index of the railway transportation industry, air transportation industry, telecommunication radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, leasing and business services industries is located at a higher economic range of 55.0%. The service industry new order index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 60.6%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.

    Second, industrial production is generally stable, new industries and new products are growing rapidly

    In January-February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from December of last year. According to estimates, in addition to the Spring Festival factor, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months of the year increased by 6.1%. From the ring comparison, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in February increased by 0.43% from the previous month. In January-February, according to the economic type, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 4.4% year-on-year, joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.4%, and foreign-invested enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan fell by 0.3%. In terms of three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 0.3% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.6%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 6.8%. The added value of strategic emerging industries increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than that of all industries above designated size by 4.8 percentage points. The output of new energy vehicles increased by 53.3% year-on-year, an increase of 37.8 percentage points from December of last year;Solar energyBattery production increased by 13.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. In January and February, power generation increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and in February it increased by 6.8%. In February, the new orders index in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 50.6%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The market is expected to show a good trend.

     Industrial added value

    Third, investment growth has accelerated, and tertiary industry and high-tech industry investment have grown faster.

    In January-February, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 4,444.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year. Among them, private investment was 2,696.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5%. In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry increased by 3.7% year-on-year; investment in the secondary industry increased by 5.5%, of which manufacturing investment increased by 5.9%; investment in the tertiary industry increased by 6.5%, and the growth rate was 1.0 percentage point higher than that of the previous year. Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3%. Investment in high-tech industry investment and industrial technology transformation increased by 8.6% and 19.5% respectively, and the growth rate was faster than the total investment of 2.5 and 13.4 percentage points respectively. In January-February, the national real estate development investment was 120.9 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year; the national commercial housing sales area was 141.02 million square meters, down 3.6%; the national commercial housing sales was 1,280.3 billion yuan, up 2.8%. From a ring comparison, fixed asset investment in February increased by 0.43% from the previous month.

     Solid investment

     Real estate investment

    Fourth, the market sales growth rate is stable, and the growth rate of upgraded commodity consumption is faster.

    In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 660.64 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was the same as that of December of last year. According to the location of the business unit, the retail sales of urban consumer goods was 562 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year; the retail sales of rural consumer goods was 985.4 billion yuan, up 9.1%. According to the type of consumption, catering revenue was 725.1 billion yuan, up 9.7%; retail sales of goods were 588.13 billion yuan, up 8.0%. The consumption of upgraded products is growing faster. In the first two months of this year, among the retail sales of units above designated size, books, magazines, cosmetics, and cultural office supplies increased by 33.9%, 8.9%, and 8.8%, respectively, and the growth rate was 25.7, 0.7, respectively, faster than the total retail sales of social consumer goods. 0.6 percentage points. In the first two months of this year, the national online retail sales amounted to 1,398.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 1,090.1 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5%, accounting for 16.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. From a ring comparison, the total retail sales of consumer goods in February increased by 0.81% from the previous month.

     Zero

    5. The employment situation is generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate is lower than the expected target.

    In January-February, there were 1.74 million new jobs in urban areas across the country. In February, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, which was lower than the expected target of 5.5%; the urban unemployment rate in 31 large cities was 5.0%. Among them, the unemployment rate of the population of the main employment group of 25-59 years old is 4.9%, which is lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. The average weekly working hours of national enterprise employees is 44.9 hours.

    6. Consumer prices rose moderately, and industrial producers’ prices rose.

    In January-February, the national consumer price rose by 1.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from December of last year. In terms of categories, food and tobacco prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year, clothing rose by 1.8%, housing rose by 2.1%, household goods and services rose by 1.4%, transportation and communications fell by 1.2%, education, culture and entertainment rose by 2.6%, and health care rose by 2.7. %, other supplies and services rose 2.1%. In the price of food, tobacco and alcohol, food prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, pork prices fell by 4.1%, and fresh vegetables prices rose by 2.6%. Looking at the month, the national consumer prices in January and February rose by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, up 0.5% and 1.0% respectively.

     CPI

    In January and February, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points from December of last year. Looking at the month, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers in China and China increased by 0.1% year-on-year in January and February, down by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. In January-February, the purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.1% year-on-year, down 1.5 percentage points from December of last year.

     PPI

    7. Import and export maintained growth, and the structure of foreign trade continued to optimize.

    In the first two months of this year, the total volume of imports and exports was 454.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In December of last year, it was down by 1.2%. According to calculations by relevant departments, in addition to the Spring Festival factor, total imports, exports, and imports in February increased by 10.2%, 7.8%, and 12.9%, respectively. In January-February, exports were 2,246.4 billion yuan, up 0.1%; imports were 2,717.7 billion yuan, up 1.5%. The import and export offset, the trade surplus was 308.7 billion yuan. General trade import and export increased by 3.9%,

    The proportion of total imports and exports was 60.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 4.4%, accounting for 40.6% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In January-February, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,725.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in December of last year.

    In general, the national economic operation in January and February continued to maintain an overall stable, steady and progressive development trend. At the same time, we must also see that the external environment is unstable and uncertain, and the domestic structural contradictions are prominent, and the downward pressure on the economy still exists. In the next stage, we should take Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the guide, conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of government work reports, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, fully mobilize the polarity of all parties, and pay close attention to various policies. Implementation, ensuring a stable economic operation, actively expanding the trend toward good development, and promoting economic development to start a good start.

    The spokesman of the Bureau of Statistics, Mao Shengyong, said that the performance of most indicators in January and February was relatively stable, and some indicators were still improving. The main economic operations show several major characteristics:

    First, domestic demand has risen steadily. From the perspective of investment, in January and February, fixed asset investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. Since September last year, the growth rate of investment has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. In terms of consumption, in January and February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of December last year. If the price factor was deducted, the actual growth rate was 7.1%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in December. Therefore, investment and consumption generally show a steady increase in domestic demand. Let's look at some leading indicators. For example, the consumer confidence index increased by 2.3 points in February compared with January. The new order index in the PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) also increased by 1.0 percentage points in February compared with January. Reflects the improvement in demand. Judging from the leading indicators of investment, the total investment of newly started projects is expected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in January-February. This figure was down 17.7% last year, and the funds for new construction projects also maintained a small increase. From these indicators, it can be expected that domestic demand will continue to grow steadily.

    Second, the structural optimization situation continues. From the production side, in January and February, if the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size exceeds the influence of the Spring Festival, the actual growth is slightly faster than that of December last year; the growth rate of the strategic emerging industries within the industry is 10.1%; private enterprises It grew by 8.3%, 0.5 percentage points faster than last December. From the service industry perspective, the modern service industry has a relatively good growth momentum, such as information transmission, software and information technology services, maintaining a relatively high growth rate of 26.5%. From the demand side, private investment grew at a faster rate, up 7.5%. Investment in the tertiary industry, social sector and industrial technology transformation has accelerated or maintained relatively high growth. Therefore, regardless of the production side or the demand side, the trend of structural optimization continues. The structure of foreign trade is also constantly optimized. While the export maintains growth, the structure is also optimized, and the proportion of general trade is increasing.

    Third, employment and prices are generally stable. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in February was 5.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from January. The main reason for the increase in the unemployment rate in February was the influence of the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, a large number of migrant workers concentrated back to the city to find work, which brought frictional unemployment and pushed up the unemployment rate. In addition, we conducted a special survey on the employment situation in 22 provinces across the country. About 80% of the enterprises returned to the post rate of more than 90%, and the employment situation was generally stable. From the price point of view, the consumer price CPI rose by 1.6% on average in January and February, including 1.7% in January and 1.5% in February, which continued the trend of moderate increase. If the energy and food prices are excluded, the core CPI will basically stabilize at a reasonable level of 1.8%-1.9% for more than half a year. From the perspective of the industrial producers' PPI, January and February both rose by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining a small increase.

    Fourth, the market is expected to be on the trend. In February, the consumer confidence index increased by 2.3 points from January, and the PMI new order index increased by 1.0 percentage points from January. The stock market transactions were relatively active, which is also a reflection of market confidence. The RMB exchange rate remained generally stable, and foreign exchange reserves increased for four consecutive months. These are comprehensive reflections of increased market confidence. In addition, from the current situation, the average daily power generation in the first 10 days of March is a double-digit growth year-on-year. The General Administration of Customs issued the import and export situation from March 1st to 9th, import and export, and The export growth rate is above 20%. From the data of the first 10 days of March, the trend is clear.

    Based on these conditions, China's economic operation remained at a reasonable level in January and February, continuing the overall stable, stable and progressive development trend. At present, the external environment is unbalanced and there are many uncertainties. In particular, the world economic growth and international trade growth have slowed down. The long-term structural contradictions accumulated in China are still quite prominent, including areas such as automobiles, and the economy is still There is some downward pressure. However, in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference and the government work report, the policies of counter-cyclical adjustment have been put in place well, and the Chinese economy can maintain a stable and healthy operation.

    Bureau of Statistics interpretation:

    Statistics Bureau: Spring Festival holiday movement sometimes affects March indicator

    Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong: Don't be too deliberate to look at some indicators for short-term fluctuations

    The Bureau of Statistics responded to the decline in the sales area of ​​commercial housing: two reasons

    Mao Shengyong: Domestic demand is stable and rising, structural optimization continues

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