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    Huatai Macro Li Chao: The policy tone is stable, and continue to see more RMB assets

    2019-03-14 11:04:46

    Financial sector website 

    The policy tone is based on stability and continues to see more RMB assets (Huatai Macro Li Chao team's February economic data quick review)

    [1] The economic short-term rapid downward pressure is not big, continue to see more RMB assets

    In January-February, infrastructure investment rebounded slightly, and real estate investment continued to rise higher than expected. The government work report lowered the economic growth target to 6.0%-6.5% this year. We expect the economy to have downward pressure, but the probability of completing the growth target is high. The "Report" continues the general tone of the policy based on stability. We believe that the policy in the first half of the year will focus on improving the operating environment of small and micro enterprises and coping with the possible upward trend of unemployment. PPI center down, corporate earnings growth slowed down, and the short-term is difficult to see a significant improvement. We believe that the recent stock market increase is mainly due to the boost of foreign capital inflows. The retail market entry effect of retail investors may further push up the market and continue to see more RMB assets. .

    In the annual strategy report, we propose that the offensive logic should be optimistic about the growth of leading stocks, such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, Internet of Things and other innovative infrastructure; defensive logic phased by more CPI and PPI scissorsAgricultural products, food and beverage, commercial retail and other consumer industries profit-making repair market. Since we proposed this optimistic logic, from the beginning of 2019 to the present (2019.1.2~3.13), the communications industry has increased by 33.8%, and the agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry industry has increased by 49.6% (SW first-class industry classification). We judge that the central bank may cut the policy interest rate in the second quarter. As the central bank cuts interest rates, the 10-year bond yield may reappear.

    [2] Industrial value added in January-February fell slightly year-on-year, industrial production is still weak

    The quarterly average values ​​of industrial added value of 2018Q1~Q4 were 6.6%, 6.6%, 6.0% and 5.7% respectively. In the first two months of this year, the industrial added value was +5.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous value. Excluding the Spring Festival factor was +6.1%, which was still weaker than the same period last year (+7.2%). Judging from the recent earnings of industrial enterprises and the weak performance of PMI, we believe that it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to recover sharply in the future. We believe that this year's infrastructure investment is expected to rebound from 2018; if the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, there will be a possibility to relax the first-line and some second-tier cities in the third quarter of 2019, and these demand side stimulus measures may be related to the manufacturing production side. The industry (engineering machinery, general equipment, etc.) has formed a certain hedging pull, and the future industrial value-added center may be a stable and moderate decline. However, before the overall profitability of industrial enterprises has not improved, it is expected that there will still be downward pressure on the industrial production side.

    [3] January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2%

    The total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February was 8.2%, which was in full agreement with our forecast. It was down 0.8% from last year's 9%. It is expected that the probability of consumption will remain low this year, and it is difficult to act strong. The structural data differentiation was obvious. After the real estate market in January and February, the cyclical consumption dropped the most. The growth rate of building decoration, furniture and home appliances dropped by 2, 12, 10.6 percentage points from December last year to 6.6%, 0.7% and 3.3%, respectively. Real estate sales were sluggish; the car growth rate in January-February was 5.7 percentage points higher, but still negative, in line with expectations; cultural office supplies and communication equipment were higher due to the base. The future consumption trend mainly depends on the economic situation and residents' expectations. It is expected that the downward pressure on the economy will still be large, and the large probability of the monetization rate of the shed will continue to drag down consumption.

    [4] Manufacturing investment growth rate fell as expected in January-February, and infrastructure investment rebounded slightly as scheduled

    Manufacturing investment in January-February was +5.9% year-on-year; infrastructure investment (statistical bureau) was +4.3% year-on-year; real estate investment was +11.6% year-on-year, and total fixed asset investment was +6.1% year-on-year. The earnings growth rate of industrial enterprises has been adjusted, and the performance of PMI has been sluggish. The problem of financing difficulties for SMEs has not been fundamentally alleviated, which has constrained the investment in manufacturing. The government work report emphasizes the overall reduction of corporate costs. We believe that the relevant policies are strong, which will help reduce the burden on enterprises, increase corporate profits, and help stabilize employment and stabilize growth. However, overall, the downward trend of the manufacturing investment center this year is still relatively clear.

    Infrastructure investment rebounded slightly as scheduled, and the growth rate of railway investment in January and February rebounded to +22.5%, which was in line with the pre-judgment of the “first railway and post-road” relaxation infrastructure. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that China's investment potential at this stage is still relatively large. It is necessary to accelerate the pace of new infrastructure construction such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and Internet of Things. We believe that the above direction will be an important development direction for medium and long-term infrastructure construction. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of various types of industrial products have rebounded from the previous month, which may reflect the expectation of signs of recovery in infrastructure demand. Local government special bonds have been issued since the beginning of the year, which guarantees the source of infrastructure investment funds. As the weather gets warmer, we expect the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of this year is expected to rise further.

    [5]Different real estate investment and sales growth in January-February

    In the first two months of 2019, the investment in real estate development increased by 11.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the whole year of 2018. The cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales was 2.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 9.4 percentage points. The strong investment was mainly driven by the increase in construction area. The cumulative growth rate of the construction area of ​​the house was 6.8%, which was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. This is the main factor that drove real estate investment last year was that the land purchase cost was significantly different. In January and February, the land acquisition area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 15.45 million square meters, down 34.1% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate was 14.2% in 2018. Our annual strategy This structural change was proposed in the report. However, data on sales and in-place funds are not optimistic, and the downward pressure on the follow-up of real estate is large. We expect that the real estate policy in the third quarter of 2019 may have a marginal turn, but the shift will also focus on protecting the need and relaxing the control measures of the first-line and some second-tier cities under the big logic of “staying and not speculating” to achieve stable growth and protection. The effect of people's livelihood.

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