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58 city, Anjuke: "stable" is still the main tone of the real estate market this year
Shanghai Securities News Yu Xiangming
On April 12, 58 Tongcheng and Anjuke released the “Summary Report of the First Quarter of 2019”, which concluded that “stable” is still the main tone of the real estate market this year. The sales prices of commercial housing in January and February this year were generally stable, first- and second-tier cities. The sales price of new commercial residential buildings increased slightly, and the sales price of second-hand residential houses declined. The growth rate of third-tier cities fell. Influenced by seasonal and Chinese New Year factors, users in the first quarter rose hot, but the increase was less than last year, and the future mentality of buyers will also stabilize.
According to statistics, the average transaction price of new homes in first-tier cities has risen steadily, and the confidence index of buyers has risen. Among them, in the first quarter of 2019, the volume of commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by about 30% year-on-year, and the transaction area in Beijing rose more than doubled year-on-year. In terms of average transaction price, the monthly transaction price of Shenzhen is in a steady and slow downward trend, and the price of Beishangguang is fluctuating, but it is still rising year by year.
Corresponding to the increase in volume, the home buyer confidence index is also in a rising trend.
According to the data of 58 Anju Housing Research Institute, the confidence index of buyers has gradually increased since November 2018. The confidence index of home buyers in February 2019 was 107.6, up 5.0% from the previous month. It is believed that first- and second-tier cities will have stable housing prices in the short term. Users who will rise will account for 67.7%.
In addition, the purchase of housing just needs to spread to surrounding cities, showing a satellite city pattern.
According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2019, the heat of finding houses in first-tier cities and surrounding cities increased year-on-year, and the heat of finding houses around Beijing and Shenzhen city groups rose by more than 20% year-on-year. In the first quarter, cities such as Baoding, Langfang, Zhuhai and Zhaoqing, which have a more prominent housing heat increase, have increased by over 60% year-on-year.
However, Zhang Bo, the chief analyst of the 58 Housing Research Institute, believes that from a fundamental point of view, some cities have seen a rebound in transactions in the first quarter, especially the increase in the volume of second-hand housing in the first-tier property market has boosted the market's heat, but in 2019. There will be no big increase in the volume of the transaction volume in the country. In other words, the overall market does not have the foundation of “Dayangchun”.
Editor in charge: Zhang Zhenjiang
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