Financial data picks up structural monetary policy or melody

1comment 2019-04-15 07:19:00 source:Financial Times - China Financial News The second beauty energy comes!

The central bank’s “Financial Times” quoted the deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute as saying that the need to further ease liquidity has declined in the context of the recovery of social welfare data, but the problem of financing difficult financing for small and micro enterprises still exists. Structural monetary policy may still be the main theme of the near future.

  Central bankAccording to data released recently, the number of new social financing in March reached 2.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.16 trillion yuan from the previous month, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth of social welfare in the month was strong. With the increase in new social financing in March, at the end of March, the growth rate of stocks and social welfare increased significantly to 10.7%, a record high in the past 10 months. At the same time, the data shows that new financial institutions in the first quarterRenminbiThe loan was 5.8 trillion yuan, about 950 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. In March, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, an increase of 577.7 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of the month, RMB loans increased by 13.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 33 months. In the case of higher-than-expected credit growth, M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year at the end of March, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.6 percentage points from the end of last month, the highest level in 13 months.

The increase in volume exceeded expectations – this is a visual impression of the latest release of financial statistics. So what is the structural change?

From the perspective of loan structure, credits in both the residential sector and the corporate sector have increased. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of the residents' departments in March increased by 80 billion yuan year-on-year, and the total amount in the first quarter was weaker than the historical period. In corporate loans, bill financing fell, while medium and long-term loans increased by nearly 200 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that with the recovery of market confidence, the promotion of real economy financing policies continued to increase, and the real financing needs of enterprises gradually recovered.PPThe improvement in profitability brought about by the increase in I growth rate matches.

However, from the overall perspective of the first quarter, the growth of RMB loans of new financial institutions accelerated, mainly due to the “impulse” of bill financing and short-term loans for enterprises, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises only increased by 120 billion yuan. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that this shows that the current corporate investment confidence and bank risk appetite repair need a process. Chen Jianheng, managing director of the fixed income department of CICC, believes that overall, although the loans in March and the first quarter were higher than expected, there are still traces of “early lending, early return” and artificial “rushing loans”.

  Industrial Bank(Quotes601166,Medical stock)chiefeconomistLu political commissarIt is said that the growth of bank loans in the table is more reflected in the characteristics of short-term loans. The performance of money supply and bank debt is that corporate demand deposits are more, and M1 growth is faster than M2. In the first quarter of this year, corporate deposits increased by 1.54 trillion yuan year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 1.44 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2018. In the first quarter of this year, M1 increased by 1.62 trillion yuan year-on-year, while M2 increased by only 1.3 trillion yuan.

At the end of March, M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year. Wang Qing believes that on the one hand, the loans to the real economy increased sharply in the month, and the ability to make loans for loans increased accordingly. On the other hand, in March, at the end of the quarter, fiscal expenditures increased the financial deposits by about 700 billion yuan, compared with the previous year. In the same period, the reduction of more than 200 billion yuan, the decline in fiscal deposits will drive the growth rate of M2. In terms of social welfare, in the first quarter, the cumulative increase in social financing was 8.18 trillion yuan, 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. The political commissar of Lu believes that the reasons behind the surge in social financing in the first quarter may be that the regulatory level encourages micro-financing and the expected reduction in financing costs, leading to a surge in short-term loans, as well as first- and second-tier cities.real estateThe market rebounded to support residents' long-term loans, and the infrastructure rebounded to support long-term loans; non-standard financing margins improved; local special bonds were issued early. As of the end of March, the balance of local government special bonds was 7.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%.

Will these factors continue to push the social rebound in the future? Chen Jianheng believes that the pre-release of local bonds will indeed support social welfare and fiscal expenditures in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, local bond issuance will begin to decrease, which will drag down social growth.

Overall, the growth rate of social welfare, credit and M2 both improved significantly in March. Wang Qing believes that this shows that the effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the early stage is obvious, and the superposition effect of various types of supporting entity economic financing policies is being reflected. Considering that the Sino-US trade negotiations have made positive progress, market confidence has continued to recover, and various micro-indicators such as power generation and railway traffic have also shown recentMacroeconomicsDownside pressures have eased, and the sharp rebound in financial data in March prompted regulators to adjust the marginal pace of monetary policy.

In terms of the open market, as of April 12, the central bank has not carried out the reverse for 17 consecutive working days.Repooperating. At present, ROO7 rebounds slightly and the currency margin slightly converges. On April 17th, there will be 367.5 billion yuan of medium-term loan convenience (MLF) due, due to the impact of the overlapping tax period, liquidity began to tighten compared with the first half of April.China Merchants Securities(Quotes600999,Medical stock)Macro research reportIt is believed that by then, it is necessary to observe the way the central bank adopts hedging and further judge the marginal changes of the central bank's monetary policy.

In the case that the social data is getting warmer,CITIC Securities(Quotes600030,Medical stockThe deputy director of the Institute, Ming Ming, believes that the need to further ease liquidity declines, but considering that the problem of financing difficult financing for small and micro enterprises still exists, structural monetary policy may still be the main theme in the near future.

Keyword reading:Financial data Structural monetary policy

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