Guosheng Xiongyuan: The basic tone of the economy is not enough to make the policy tone loose

1comment 2019-04-15 08:21:00 source:Bear Park Observation Author:Bear park Just do it next week! Steady!

  The latest data from the People's Bank of China shows that it was added in March this year.RenminbiThe scale of loans and the scale of new social financing have risen sharply, significantly higher than market expectations, and the credit structure has also improved.On the whole, the financial data has improved since the beginning of the year, indicating that the effect of the counter-cyclical adjustment of China's monetary policy has gradually emerged, and the currency transmission mechanism is expected to be further dredged.

  In terms of credit, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan in March, which was higher than the market consensus, and was significantly higher than the same period of last year (1.12 trillion yuan); new loans increased by 5.8 trillion yuan in January-March, a significant year-on-year It increased by 946.5 billion yuan, and the average value of the past five years increased by 1.2 trillion yuan. In terms of structure, whether it is the month of March or the accumulation of January-March, the new corporate loans are better than the same period last year, which is better than the average of the past five years. At the same time, the scale of bill financing in March also narrowed significantly. The data indicates that the credit structure has been optimized and financing support for the real economy has begun to increase.

  Social financing, in July and September 2018Central bankAfter adjusting the social and economic calibre twice, the growth rate of the social and new stocks under the new and old calibre will decline for 12 consecutive months in 2018. By 2019, the scale of social welfare has begun to stabilize. The data shows that the growth rate of the stocks in the new 1-3 months is 10.4%, 10.1%, and 10.7%, respectively, which is higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 for three consecutive months. In terms of structure, it can be said that there are both joys and sorrows but happiness is greater than worry. Among them, the loan of “Hi” in the real economy in March has increased.Corporate bondAnd the increase in local government special debts is higher; the worry is that the off-balance sheet financing has not stabilized significantly, and the on-balance sheet loans still play an absolute main role.

  In addition, the M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates rebounded significantly in March. In particular, although the “M1-M2 scissors difference” has been negative for 14 consecutive months, the gap has narrowed for two consecutive months, which means that the investment vitality of enterprises has also improved. Looking back, it is expected that the M1-M2 scissors gap will continue to narrow, and the transmission of “wide currency” to “wide credit” will be further dredged.

  Financial data has always been a forward-looking indicator of economic data, which indicates that China's economy will also stabilize. Statistics show that the growth rate of social financing stocks is about half a year ahead of real GDP, and the leading nominal GDP is about 1-3 quarters; the difference of M1-M2 scissors leads the nominal GDP growth rate of 3-8 months. From this point of view, the social welfare has stabilized for three consecutive months, and the probability of China's economy stabilizing in the second and third quarters is very high.

  It is worth noting thatDue to the recent micro-data including social welfare, manufacturing PMI and coal consumption for power generation, all of them point to signs that the economy is promising, so the expectation that the policy is likely to tighten will start to heat up. However, considering multiple factors in a comprehensive way, from the current point of view, it is indeed optimistic about the economic side, but the economic fundamentals are not enough to make the general tone of policy loosening "step on the brakes."

  On the one hand, China’s economic downturn is still relatively large. For example, in March, China's manufacturing PMI index was 50.5%. Although it was once again standing on the line of stagnation in three months, the index of each sub-item rebounded to varying degrees, but the demand index indicators such as the PMI new order index were still weak; The monthly export rebounded sharply, but more was the Spring Festival factor and the low base effect. The import growth rate continued to decline, indicating that domestic demand was relatively weak. This year's government work report emphasizes that "the environment facing China's development this year is more complicated and more severe. The risks and risks that can be expected and unpredictable are more and more serious, and we must fully prepare for hard work." In other words,The overall tone of the policy will still be to strengthen the bottom line thinking and counter-cyclical control thinking.

  On the other hand, we must also see that China’s policy has always emphasized the choice of cameras and will fine-tune the pre-adjustment in due course. therefore,In view of the signs of stabilization in the economy, it means that there will be no more lenient measures in the short term, but the various easing policies that have been formulated since the beginning of the year are likely to be implemented.For example, this year's government work report has clearly stated that “increase the targeted reduction of small and medium-sized banks, and all the funds released will be used for private and small and micro enterprise loans.” In the second quarter, the liquidity gap of the banking system is still relatively large.Subsequent RRR cuts will still be a policy option for monetary authorities.

Keyword reading:Monetary Policy

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