What are the new wordings of the Central Bank's regular meeting that Yihui will participate for the first time?

1comment 2019-04-15 19:17:33 source:Financial association Just do it next week! Steady!

Earlier this month, the central bank's monetary policy committee, known as the “best brain” in China's monetary policy, welcomed the new member, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman. In addition to fiscal tax cuts, what will happen to the central bank in the future to further stimulate the vitality of the micro-subjects is also worth looking forward to.

The Financial News Agency reported on April 15 that at the beginning of this month, it was called the "most powerful brain" in China's monetary policy formulation.Central bankThe Monetary Policy Committee welcomed a new member, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman.

Soon, the Monetary Policy Committee held its first quarterly meeting in 2019 in Beijing on April 12. It is worth noting that when studying the economic and financial situation, this meeting rarely said:First Quarter "Financial Market Expected Improvement".

Coincidentally, according to Xinhua News Agency, the deputy governor of the central bank Chen Yulu also said on the 13th.Chinese stock marketIt is showing signs of bottoming and recovery.The central bank gave positive comments to the market for two consecutive days. This may be for the first quarterSSEThe KLCI rose 24% and the CSI Total Bond Index rose 2.14%.

The Financial Association combed the draft of this regular meeting and tried to find a different expression from the previous regular meeting.


  Main points of the central bank's first quarter monetary policy committee meeting

  Steadily push forward reforms in key areas such as interest rates, “two tracks and one track” or accelerate

At present, China still has a "dual track system" for interest rates. On the one hand, there are still benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans; on the other hand, money market interest rates are entirely determined by the market.

Yi Gang said at the Boao Forum for Asia last year that the best strategy should be to gradually unify the interest rates of these two tracks. This is the interest rate marketization reform to be done.People's Bank of ChinaAt the beginning of the 2019 New Year's work conference, the goal of "advanced two-track and one track" has been clearly incorporated into the 2019 work goal.

Sun Guofeng, director of the central bank's monetary policy department, also said on January 25 that the interest rate "dual track system" actually formed a certain obstacle to market-oriented interest rate regulation and transmission. In the next step, the central bank will further promote the reform of interest rate marketization and push interest rates into a "two-track integration." This regular session will revisit the interest rate reform, and the pace of reform is accelerating.

For the two tracks, Dong Xizhen, vice president of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that 2019 may see the first release.Deposit interest rate. It is possible to increase the upper limit of the deposit interest rate from the current 50% to 80% or even 100%. However, he also believes that this may have an impact on bank management, especially earnings, and the spread will narrow in the medium to long term.

  Stimulating the vitality of microscopic subjects is still an important "hand"

When talking about the next stage of work, the central bank increased this sentence from the previous period:"Efforts to stimulate the vitality of microscopic subjects". The regular meeting stated that it will "adhere to the overall tone of the work, strive to stimulate the vitality of the micro-subjects, innovate and improve macro-control, further stabilize employment, stabilize finance, stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign investment, stabilize investment, and stabilize expectations."

“Efforts to stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects” are emphasized in the 2018 Central Economic Work Conference and the 2019 Government Work Report. Hua Ji's fixed-income analyst Zhang Jiqiang believes that the micro-main body mainly includes local governments,real estateEnterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.To stimulate the vitality of the microscopic subject, the following points must be achieved:

1. Local debt “opens the main entrance” to increase the amount of issuance; encourage social capital to regulate participationPPP project.

2. The real estate market may appropriately relax financing restrictions on the premise that risks are controllable.

3. As an important support for the bottom of the economy, state-owned enterprises should adjust their de-leveraging process.

4. To stimulate the vitality of private enterprises, what is needed is a stable expectation, a fair market competition environment, confidence in the economy, and practical measures such as tax cuts and fee reductions.

In terms of tax reduction and fee reduction, the government work report proposes that the current 16% tax rate for industries such as manufacturing will fall to 13%, and the current 10% tax rate for transportation, construction and other industries will fall to 9%, and the tax rate will continue to be promoted to the third level. files. enterpriseSocial securityThe burden of payment has also dropped.

This year, it is expected to reduce the burden of corporate taxation and social security contributions by nearly 2 trillion yuan, far higher than the target of 1.1 trillion corporate tax reductions last year.

“Water is clear without fish”, and strict supervision is often one of the important factors that limit microscopic subjects. In addition to fiscal tax cuts, what will happen to the central bank in the future to further stimulate the vitality of the micro-subjects is also worth looking forward to.

Keyword reading:Central bank currency

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