The central bank's monetary policy committee will open a regular meeting to further relax the space narrowing?

1comment 2019-04-15 22:00:58 source:Securities Times Network Just do it next week! Steady!

As a "wind vane" to speculate on the direction of the next phase of the central bank's monetary policy, the quarterly monetary policy committee's regular meetings have been widely concerned, and the latest changes in the official monetary policy orientation have often indicated that the next monetary policy will also be adjusted accordingly.

As a peekCentral bankThe “wind vane” of the next phase of monetary policy, the quarterly monetary policy committee meeting has always been widely concerned, and the official monetary policy orientation has changed significantly, which often indicates that the next monetary policy will also be adjusted accordingly.

On April 15, the official website of the central bank announced that on April 12, the central bank's monetary policy committee held its first quarter of 2019 (the 84th) regular meeting.

According to the conventions and conventions, the meeting will analyze the current domestic and international economic and financial situation, and make a forward-looking perspective on the monetary policy trend in the next quarter. These two parts are also the most concerned part of the market. They usually compare the differences in the previous quarter's regular meeting word by word and predict the future direction of monetary policy.

The Securities Times reporter compared the contents of the first quarter of this year's regular meeting with the fourth quarter of last year's regular meeting and found that the official judgment on the current domestic and international economic and financial situation is more optimistic than the end of last year, and the pressure is less; correspondingly, the next quarter's monetary policy The orientation has also undergone a subtle change. The “money supply gate” reappears, and the prudent monetary policy is only to be moderately but not “more focused”. The subtle differences between the lines in the words can be judged, with one The quarterly economic and financial data exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy has stabilized and recovered, and the space for further monetary policy relaxation is narrowing.

Change 1: Economic development has gone from "stable" to "healthy" and "severe challenges"

Compared with the end of last year, this year, the economic and financial situation at home and abroad has undergone great changes. on the one hand,Federal ReserveThe monetary policy orientation has fully turned to the pigeons. If the market is still speculating whether the Fed will adjust the pace of currency normalization at the end of last year, then this year's answer shows yes. The Fed made it clear that it stopped shrinking at the end of September this year, and most Fed officials believe that it will suspend interest rate hike this year. These “sounds of pigeons” not only made the global financial market breathe a sigh of relief, but also reduced the external constraints of China’s monetary policy.

More importantly, the steady growth series of policy initiatives launched in the second half of last year are continuing to be effective. The recently released data on import and export, CPI, PMI, credit and social welfare in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, and the economy is showing signs of stabilization.

Therefore, for the current domestic and international economic and financial situation, the first quarter of the monetary policy committee meeting is more optimistic. The following points have changed significantly:

1. China's economy has developed from “stable” to “healthy”:

The meeting held that China's current economy is developing healthily (previous quarter is "stable" development), economic growth remains resilient, (deleting the "basic balance of total supply and demand"), and the growth momentum is accelerating.

2. Put forward a higher evaluation of the economic effects of financial services entities – quality and efficiency are gradually improved:

The meeting believed thatRenminbiexchange rateOverall stability, improved financial market expectations (new expressions), and increased ability to respond to external shocks. Steady monetary policy reflects the requirement of counter-cyclical adjustment (the last quarter was “stable and neutral monetary policy has achieved good results”), the macro leverage ratio has stabilized, the effectiveness of financial risk prevention and control has emerged, and the quality of financial services real economy And the efficiency has gradually increased (only last quarter mentioned "financial support for the real economy is further enhanced").

3. No longer mention “face to more serious challenges”:

  Domestic economyThere have been positive changes in the structural adjustment of the financial sector, but there are still some deep-seated problems and prominent contradictions.International economicThe financial situation is complex and there is still a lot of uncertainty (the last quarter was “face to more severe challenges”).

Change 2: "The main gate of money supply" reproduces the probability of further relaxation of monetary policy

Thanks to market expectations and economic performance since the end of this year, the monetary policy needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. Judging from the position of this regular meeting, the probability of further monetary policy relaxation is decreasing.

Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the first quarter of this year has the following changes in monetary policy:

1 Emphasis on maintaining strategic strength and policy coordination

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continue to pay close attention to the marginal changes in the international and domestic economic and financial situation, enhance the sense of urgency, maintain strategic strength (additional expression), and adhere to counter-cyclical adjustment (the last quarter was "strengthen the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustment"). Further strengthen the coordination between monetary, fiscal and other policies (new expressions), timely pre-adjust and fine-tune, and focus on preventing risks on the basis of steady growth (new expressions, consistent with General Secretary Xi Jinping's statement at the end of February).

The comparison found that although this meeting also raised the cycle adjustment, it only said that it should be “persistent”, and the formulation of the last meeting was “to increase the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustment”, from “increase the intensity” to “persistence”. Explain that while the sound monetary policy reflects the requirements of counter-cyclical adjustment, the next step is to continue to maintain the current level in terms of strength, without further “increase”.

2 "Money supply main gate" reappears

The meeting pointed out that a sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate (in the last quarter, “more emphasis on tightness”), good money supply to the main gate (new expression), no “big water flooding” (new expression), while maintaining mobility Reasonably sufficient, the broad money M2 and the growth rate of social financing should match the nominal growth rate of GDP (the last quarter was “maintaining a reasonable growth in the scale of money and credit and social financing”).

The regular meeting in the fourth quarter of last year just deleted the statement of “managing the main gate of money supply” from the previous quarter. After a quarter, the “money supply gate” reappeared and emphasized “not engaging in “big water flooding””. However, the above-mentioned new expression is not the first time it appears, but it is mentioned in this year's government work report, and it is also in line with the formulation of the government work report.

The government report pointed out that a sound monetary policy should be moderately appropriate. The growth rate of broad money M2 and social financing should match the nominal growth rate of GDP to better meet the needs of the economic operation to maintain a reasonable range. In actual implementation, it is necessary to supply good money to the general gate, not to engage in "big flood irrigation", but also to flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools to clear the channels of monetary policy transmission and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

However, combined with the more optimistic statement on the economic and financial situation at home and abroad and the slightly conservative outlook on monetary policy, the probability of further monetary policy relaxation is expected to decline. The recent call for RRR cuts has cooled down a lot. The market generally expects that despite the large-scale MLF expiration and centralized tax payment this week, there will be a large gap in funds, but the central bank will not hedge by means of RRR cuts.

Former Director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics, Central EuropeLujiazui(Quotes600663,Medical stock)International financeExecutive Vice President of the InstituteSheng SongchengRecently, in an interview with the First Financial News, the need for RRR reduction has declined in terms of current economic data. When the economy stabilizes, it will be lowered, it will easily push up inflation, and it will easily lead to a large flow of funds.real estate.

Wall Street Seeing ChiefeconomistDeng Haiqing also said that since March, monetary policy seems to have marginal changes, mainly including the central bank’s continuous pause for a long time.RepoThe stability of money market funds has declined, and temporary funds have been slightly strained. The central bank’s expectation of rate cuts has begun to weaken significantly.

"From the perspective of marginal changes, the market expects that the monetary easing in 2019 will be lower than that in 2018. The economy has stabilized in stages. The central bank should not loosen the easing when the economy stabilizes, but should reserve monetary policy space for possible risks. Deng Haiqing said.

ICBC International Chief EconomistCheng ShiIt indicates that the current central bank is in a more comfortable policy environment. On the one hand, the value of the renminbi continued to stabilize, weakening the external constraints of monetary policy. On the other hand, after the short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, the money market interest rate fell again in early April, and the private lending rate remained stable, indicating that market liquidity remained at a reasonable and sufficient level. As a result, the policy space for RRR cuts has expanded, but policy urgency has declined. Thanks to the above-mentioned environment, the central bank is expected to be cautious and cautious, and more calmly balance short-term “steady growth” and long-term “promotion of reform”.

Change 3: Focusing on the adjustment and optimization of the financial system structure, deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side

This meeting still refers to deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side, but this meeting will be compared to the financial meeting of the fourth quarter of last year.Supply side reformThe content of the content has a more specific introduction.

The meeting pointed out that in accordance with the requirements of deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side, focusing on the adjustment and optimization of the financial system structure (adding new expressions), optimizing the financing structure and credit structure, striving to achieve financial support for private enterprises and private enterprises for economic society. The contribution of development is adapted. Comprehensive measures to improve the quality and efficiency of the financial services real economy (new expression), improve small and micro enterprises and “three rural” financial services, (new expression) to promote sound monetary policy, enhance the vitality of micro-subjects and playcapital marketA virtuous circle of functions is formed between the functions to promote a virtuous cycle of the national economy.

It can be seen that the current focus of deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side, on the one hand, still lies in the restructuring of the financial system, mainly to increase the proportion of direct financing and reduce excessive dependence on indirect financing. On the other hand, in the financial service object, the focus is still on the integration of small and micro, “three rural” and other inclusive financial objects.

In addition, in terms of deepening the reform of the financial system, compared with the fourth quarter of last year, this regular meeting added “key reforms in key areas such as steadily pushing interest rates”. The reform in the interest rate field mainly refers to deepening the interest rate marketization reform, and merging the "two tracks" where the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate coexist into "one track." At the beginning of this year, Sun Guofeng, the director of the central bank's monetary policy department, revealed that from the current situation of bail-outs and private enterprises' financing difficulties, the consolidation of the benchmark interest rate of loans is now more urgent. The central bank will take measures to actively promote and further develop the existing The loan reference interest rate is closely linked to the central bank's policy interest rate to ensure a coordinated and orderly advancement.

  Guosen Securities(Quotes002736,Medical stockEconomic Research InstitutebankingChief analyst Wang Jian believes that under ideal conditions, the central bank determines the policy interest rate, which is used to influence the interest rate of the money market, and thus affectDeposit interest rateThen, the overall debt cost of the banking industry is roughly determined, and then the pricing of the loan interest rate is completed through mechanisms such as FTP, which affects the investment and consumption of the entity. However, in China's reality, there are at least a few blocking points, which leads to the above-mentioned transmission is not smooth, such as the deposit interest rate rigidity caused by savings habits and regulatory requirements, the loan pricing is not completely scientific and reasonable, and there are still some quantity control. In the end, the interest rate is consolidated. Not only is the central bank simply announcing the cancellation of the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans. The core task of this stage is to temper the “internal strength” of the bank in order to break through the blockage of the bank’s internal monetary policy and to raise the interest rate risk of the bank. , liquidity risk management capabilities, and the transformation of its own strategic positioning after the completion of interest rate reform.

Change 4: The financial industry is open, from "external" to "two-way"

It is worth noting that after the regular meetings in the past few quarters have emphasized "further expansion of financial opening up", the financial industry of this regular meeting has been opened up, from "external" to "two-way".

The meeting pointed out that it will further expand the high-level two-way financial opening (previously “further expansion of financial opening up”), improve economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention and control capabilities under open conditions (additional expressions), and improve participation in international financial governance capabilities (new Express, delete “enhance the vitality and resilience of the financial industry”

Opening to the outside world is more about introducing foreign investment. In the past year, China’s financial industry has made many substantive measures to expand its opening up to the outside world, such as relaxing foreign investment banks.Broker,Insurance institutionEqual shareholding ratio, expand the business scope of foreign financial institutions in China, and attract more foreign investmentNational debtCity, stock market, etc.

The change of this meeting to "two-way opening" means that in addition to continuing to expand the opening of foreign investment in this year, it may indicate that there will be some action in promoting the "going out" of China's financial industry.

  

Keyword reading:Money supply

Editor in charge: Zhang Zhenjiang
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