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    A-share company's performance ice and fire: double the number of small and medium-sized housing enterprises

    2019-05-07 05:19:59

    Times Weekly Yang Jing

    The differentiation and reshuffle of the real estate industry continues.

    With the release of 2018 annual results and the 2019 quarterly report, subtle changes are emerging in the real estate industry.

    One side is a new high in sales in 2018. 600 billion yuan, 550 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan, Vanke (000002.SZ), Evergrande (03333.HK), Country Garden (Hong Kong stocks 02007) (02007.HK) once again broke through the past. The camp of 100 billion housing companies has also expanded to 30.

    On the other hand, the total sales volume of the three leading real estate companies in the first quarter fell by an average of nearly 13% year-on-year. According to statistics from Kerry, in the first quarter, Vanke fell 1.76% year-on-year, Country Garden fell 9.25%, and Evergrande fell 26.21%. At the same time, the overall sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 1%. Moreover, according to the incomplete statistics of the Times Weekly reporters, nearly 70% of the target enterprises in the first quarter have a target completion rate of less than 20%.

    It was recognized as a small year of real estate sales in 2019, and the market pattern of each city's differentiation will continue. Remittance, financing, deleveraging, and profit increase are still high-frequency vocabulary and difficult issues for housing companies.

    Housing enterprise ceiling

    The discussion of the industry ceiling has not stopped.

    In the reasons why real estate enterprises are turning to new businesses, they often see the expression “developing ceilings due to the real estate industry”. Earlier a few years ago, there was a case in the industry that the size of a housing company would reach 400% of the ceiling, but it was broken only one year apart.

    Since 2016, China's real estate has experienced the fastest growth for three years. Through the high turnover and high leverage path, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises maintained a compound annual growth rate of more than 40%.

    The big environment is the national statistical office sales of nearly 15 trillion yuan in 2018, which is a year-on-year increase of 12%, a record high, far exceeding the 8 trillion yuan in 2015 and 11 trillion yuan in 2016. .

    At the moment, the questioning continues: Can the market maintain sufficient momentum? Does the turning point come here?

    Zhu Zhongyi, former vice president of the China Real Estate Association, gave the view that China’s real estate industry still has a development period of at least 10 years. The first reason is that the urbanization continues to advance and the central cities lead the development of urban agglomerations; the second is the promotion of urban renewal and transformation; the third is the development of new economic formats and the growing demand for a better life of the people.

    "For the real estate market in 2019, the forecast may have a 10% decline, but the entire market will still reach 13 trillion yuan." Xu Shitan, vice chairman of the board of directors of Shimao Group, told the Times Weekly at the March results conference. The media inside said.

    It is not difficult to find that giants such as Country Garden, Vanke, Evergrande, etc. have not given a positive attitude to the growth of the subsequent scale.

    Vanke's 2019 return is rated at 600 billion yuan, less than last year's sales target of 6,300 yuan; Country Garden did not even publicly give this year's sales target, the keyword is "quality control speed"; Evergrande for this year's Sales target growth has also decreased by nearly 2%.

    One thing that can be determined is that high-leverage operations and high-growth models are doomed to be unsustainable. According to incomplete statistics, the growth rate of performance of most large-scale real estate enterprises in 2019 is lower than that of 2018.

    According to analysts from Cree, it is expected that the growth in the performance of real estate companies in 2019 will mainly depend on supply growth. It is expected that the overall expected rate of this year will be basically the same as the level of 60% in 2018, which is lower than that in 2017.

    Net profit decline

    The net profit situation of housing enterprises has shown a clear differentiation.

    According to statistics from the Wind Real Estate Industry Classification, Time Weekly reporter found that 60 of the 146 real estate companies in the A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a decline in net profit, accounting for 41% of the total.

    Since 2016, the number of real estate companies with negative net profit has risen, from the original 13 and 11 to 25, nearly doubled.

    Many of them are small and medium-sized housing companies, such asHNA Innovation(600555.SH),Zhongfang shares(600890.SH),Dagang shares(002077.SZ),Jiakai City(000918.SZ) and*ST Huaye(600240.SH) and so on.

    Large-scale housing enterprises are still the head of net profit, like Vanke (000002SZ), Poly (600048.SZ),Merchants Shekou(001979.SZ) andGreenland Holdings(600606.SH) Four real estate companies have been in the top four of net profit for the past three years.

    However, the gap between the first and last net profit is increasing. For example, Vanke’s 2018 net profit (consolidated statement) is 49.2 billion yuan, and *ST Huaye, which is at the end, is -64.67 billion yuan. The difference is nearly 55 billion yuan. And in 2017, Vanke and the end of the lineNingbo FidelityThe difference between (600724.SH) is only 38 billion yuan.

    The price limit and market downturn have become the key factors affecting the performance of housing companies. For example, in the annual report, Vanke made a purchase price cut of 2.31 billion yuan for the 2018 project, an increase of 43.4%. This affects the net profit after tax of 780 million yuan, affecting the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 600 million yuan.

    "The decline in profits is an inevitable trend." Jiang Yan, a special researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, believes that under the general tone of not being speculated, the downward pressure on the market is obvious, and the profit margin of housing enterprises is squeezed.

    Cash is king

    Cash is king and is being placed in an important position by the housing companies.

    In the 2018 Vanke performance meeting, Sun Jia, the company's chief financial officer, said that Vanke's operating model is cash-based, cash flow-based management model, the company hopes to maintain a stable debt level from beginning to end.

    According to the Times Weekly reporter, many housing companies have begun to develop and implement various cash flow-based sales-oriented sales plans after the start of this year. The push strategy of "small step fast run" is often the choice of many small and medium-sized housing enterprises.

    Market de-conservation is another layer of consideration. Although the sales of first- and second-tier cities have improved after the Spring Festival, most of the third- and fourth-tier cities continue to have a sluggish sales situation, and the sales rate is lower than expected.

    According to data released by the Krui Real Estate Research Center, although the overall performance of the market in March was significantly better than the previous two months, the overall sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies in the first quarter still fell by about 1%.

    In fact, housing companies need more money than ever. The reliance on debt issuance has exploded this year.

    According to Cree's data, in March of this year, the total financing of 85 typical housing enterprises was 120.47 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5% from the previous month and an increase of 13.7%.

    According to statistics from CICC (Hong Kong stock market 03908), in the first quarter of 2019, the total issuance of Chinese-funded real estate dollar bonds reached 26.9 billion US dollars, accounting for 53% of the total circulation, equivalent to 2018 Chinese property real estate debt in 2018. 56.99%. CombineCITIC Construction InvestmentAccording to the research report, the maturity of Chinese real estate dollar debt in 2019 was 22.58 billion US dollars.

    This means that the size of the Chinese real estate dollar financing in the first quarter of 2019 has greatly exceeded the amount required to be repaid.

    However, the cost of offshore financing in the first quarter is still low. Times Weekly reporters found that the current offshore financing costs of mainstream housing companies are between 6% and 8%, far lower than the cost of 8% or more in 2018.

    "In the case that a large number of short-term debts are about to expire, the main purpose of many housing companies to issue bonds is to borrow new ones. However, the larger the size of debt issuance, the greater the scale of repayment in the future." People analyzed the Times Weekly reporter and said, "In the event of a tightening of the financing side, there will be certain risks."

    Hot searchHousing enterprise A share Double

    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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