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    The price of pork for fruits and vegetables has increased by more than 10% year-on-year.

    2019-05-15 07:48:53

    Big cat finance

    01

    If you often go to the vegetable market, have you recently felt that the price of fruits and vegetables is a bit high?

    Many people don't keep accounts, so how much is not felt. We can refer to the CPI (Consumer Consumer Price Index). After the April data, the fruits, vegetables and pork have increased significantly, more than 10% year-on-year.

     This is still the data for April. If you look at the increase in the past three months, many fruits have risen by 70%.

    There are fewer fruits in the north, and the performance is more obvious.

    The data of Beijing Xinfadi is relatively authoritative. The market statistics show that the current fruit price in the new market is about 6.15 yuan per kilogram, which is 78% higher than the same period of last year. The main varieties that rise include kiwi, pear, apple and citrus. .

     Now, kiwifruit has been 7.9 yuan.

     Pork prices have been rising for some time, and the recent increase in vegetables is also quite amazing.

    The price increase trend started from the second half of last year. Before the Spring Festival this year, it rose a wave. According to the practice in previous years, the price will fall after the holiday, but this year basically did not fall back. Some vegetables even increased the price to be more expensive than before the festival:

     The eggplant is almost 10 pounds.

    A family of three makes a meal of two vegetables and two meats, add some onion, ginger and garlic peppers. At this time last year, maybe four or fifty pieces can be fixed, but now it is easy to go to the market or supermarket to buy vegetables and buy fruits. It’s over 100 pieces, and it’s a rough one. The cost of food can be one or two thousand dollars a month.

    02

    what is the reason? Almost all of this price increase comes from the supply side.

    ● Like pork, last year's pig slashes were very large and the yield was very large. After that, the Ministry of Agriculture also said that the supply of pigs is tight, and pork prices may rise by 70% in the second half of the year. It is unrealistic to resume production in the short term, so the price will not fall quickly.

    ● The price increase of vegetables is also due to the reduction in production.

    Shandong Shouguang was hit by disaster last year, letting this vegetable town stand in the spotlight. Shouguang vegetables not only have many varieties, but also have a high total output. The supply of vegetables in North China is highly dependent on Shouguang.

    After the disaster, the parsley once soared to nearly 40 yuan a pound, beyond everyone's imagination.

    Vegetables do not grow as slowly as fruit trees, but agricultural facilities are destroyed too much, and recovery is slower. In particular, many farmers have collapsed and cannot recover quickly. The previous investment has been squandered and needs to be refinanced or loaned. A lot of time.

    In the south, it is subject to frost and continuous rainy weather, which reduces the production of vegetables in South China and East China. The trend of price increase of cabbage, lettuce and rape has continued until now. Special varieties of citron are sold for nearly 200 pounds instead of cherries. , redefining the local standards: "to be free."

     03

    The situation of fruits is similar.

    In the second half of last year and last month, the whole country suffered from a wide range of frosts. The south does not have such cold weather every year. Many fruit trees have died many times, and several varieties have reduced production.

    ● The typical variety is apple. As one of the larger categories of fruit, the fluctuation of apple price affects other fruits around. Since the Spring Festival this year, Apple's price has risen strongly, and the prices of the first and second-tier wholesale markets have entered the “8” range.

    Since the listing of Apple Futures last year, the price has hit a new high, and the main contract price once broke through 12,000 yuan / ton, and then gradually fell back. Since May, the 1910 contract has risen by more than 8.5%.

    The price is not optimistic. The young fruit that has just been bagged in some producing areas has been directly knocked down under the tree, which has increased the expectation of reducing production last year. At the same time, the proportion of various fruits and sub-fruits has increased significantly, resulting in a sharp drop in production. The decline in quality has caused Apple's warehousing volume to hit a new low in recent years, and it has directly caused the "Golden Apple" that appeared on the market this year.

    The yield of apples in many producing areas has been reduced by at least 40%, and even in some areas, production has been reduced by half. The recovery of production recovery prices may fall to the end of the year or next year.

    ● The second typical variety is citrus. The orange trees of different varieties in Hunan, Yunnan, Sichuan and other producing areas have reduced production. In Beijing's new land, last year's five pounds of ugly orange, the Chinese New Year came back soon. Ten pounds a pound, after going up, it has not been down.

    ● There are also popular lychees, Guangdong and Guangxi production areas have significantly reduced production, this year's price has doubled compared to last year, and the subsequent guarantees will continue to increase prices.

     04

    When this situation can be improved, it is predictable, but there are two unknown x factors.

    ● The first is pests and diseases.

    Typical is the grasshopper moth. At the end of last year, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned the whole world that this "snake moth" may invade Asia, omnivorous and almost no natural enemies, and it breeds quickly and is very harmful.

    In December 2018, Myanmar first discovered the grasshopper moth, which swept across Myanmar in less than two months, causing heavy losses. After the discovery of the grasshopper moth in some areas of Yunnan near Yunnan earlier this year, the Ministry of Agriculture issued prevention and control technology. Later, the moth spread from Yunnan to Guangxi, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Hunan, and began to cause losses. How can the insects of corn and wheat be worthy of attention.

     ● The second x factor is the import change.

    For example, soybeans and corn, soybeans affect oil and soybean meal, so the import situation has a greater impact on the price of subsequent pork and oil products. Yesterday, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a plan for emergency control of grain and oil supply and price fluctuations. This is a special emergency control plan for Beijing's life necessities after pigs and vegetables. It is also a plan for import changes.

    05

    The price increase of the vegetable basket is a major event for the people. However, from the perspective of investment, there is no need for an opportunity. The price increase of the product has a great impact on the performance of the listed company. The investment master Peter Lynch is looking for investment opportunities from his life and spending a little energy. If you pay attention, you may also make a small profit.

    This wave of this yearAgricultural productsThe price increase, from the recovery rate to see the fastest vegetables, followed by pork, you can delay the price increase through chicken replacement, and then slowly resume the amount of cultivation after the epidemic control. The fruit trees are the slowest, and many fruit trees die in the frost. Now many local governments are subsidizing farmers to encourage replanting. However, it will take several years for the new fruit trees to bear fruit, and the price reduction process will be slow.

    So at present, there are several sectors that will benefit from a high probability:

    Hot searchvegetables pork fruit

    Editor in charge: Zhao Lu RF13155

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