Producer: Wu Yunfeng
Producer: Hu Wen
Master pen: Bao Fang
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Chief Researcher of Bank of China, Deputy General Manager of Strategic Development Department of Bank of China, Secretary General of Academic Committee of 50 People Forum of Cross-border Finance. He has hosted or participated in more than 10 major issues in the National Natural Science Foundation, the National Social Science Foundation, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Asian Foundation, and the SAFE.
Blockchain has certain prospects, but it cannot be hoped that it will solve the problem of financing in financial markets. Because the financing system itself has many problems, it cannot be solved through a simple technological change.
The current computing power required for the entire chain is indeed huge, and with the expansion of the blockchain in the future, this demand will only increase geometrically. There are many occasions when the blockchain solves the ever-increasing ceiling of computing power without new breakthroughs.
The capital flows completed through “decentralization” technology are faced with certain international regulatory issues. How to manage risk well so that national regulatory support can further improve efficiency is the most important initial step for this technology.
Efficiency and risk issues must be broken in the application of blockchain scenarios
financial:Is financial activity (especially financing) likely to increase efficiency or confidence due to the application of blockchain technology?
Zong Liang:This can be done locally, especially confidence. However, it is necessary to emphasize the technical efficiency problem here. All application problems are scale problems, as long as the efficiency can achieve scale effect, it can be practically applied. However, by demonstrating the following two aspects, we can basically confirm that it is difficult to use the technology on a large scale in the short-term financing field. First, the financing itself involves fewer confidence issues because of strict regulation. Second, the financing market is very large, and the efficiency of blockchain technology is insufficient, and it still cannot satisfy the entire market. For the scenario application of the future blockchain, it needs to start from the local, gradually improve efficiency and security and then penetrate into the overall industry. A single discussion on the issue of financial market financing. Blockchain has certain prospects, but it cannot be hoped that it will solve the problem of financing in financial markets. Because the financing system itself has many problems, it cannot be solved through a simple technological change. In the future, there may be many application scenarios in the blockchain. Whether it can become a viable application, you need to look at two key indicators:
Efficiency is not only the time required to complete a transaction, but also the upper limit of the power that can be raised in the entire blockchain system. For example, the current computing power required for the entire chain is indeed very large, and with the expansion of the future blockchain, this demand will only increase geometrically. There are many occasions when the blockchain solves the ever-increasing ceiling of computing power without new breakthroughs. As for the idea of blockchain helping financial transactions, it is currently completely in the trading demand, indicating the efficiency required for other scenarios, and the blockchain technology has not yet been reached.
The risk of blockchain application is more typical of illegal use. A new technology, especially when it comes to cross-border applications, has a high probability of unforeseen risks. For example, bitcoin is a decentralized concept that is quickly applied to illegal cross-border payments. Let illegal activities such as money laundering be successfully implemented through this technology. The capital flows completed through “decentralization” technology are faced with certain international regulatory issues. How to manage risk well so that national regulatory support can further improve efficiency is the most important initial step for this technology.
The chilling of cryptocurrencies is a secondary review of society. It will usher in more rational funds and research.
financial:The cryptocurrency thing has experienced a big cooling, how do you think about it?
Zong Liang:The cooling of the cryptocurrency is a rational return. Dialectically, although the cryptocurrency here takes Bitcoin as an example, it has experienced a decline of more than 60%. However, since its birth, it has maintained a very high growth rate, and even experienced a price increase of 20 million times at the peak. This is a miracle in itself, because no assets in human history have such a proportion of value added, and such a large Price increases are a manifestation of risk agglomeration for any asset, and a certain magnitude of decline does not prove to be worthless. Perhaps it is just a good time for the society to review it twice and may usher in more rational funding and attention. The question of whether Bitcoin is valuable has been widely discussed. I think that if you must use currency thinking to look at Bitcoin, then its value is very limited. One of the monetary functions of the value scale does not exist here in Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin itself fluctuates severely. In addition, as a means of storage, Bitcoin has also presented its potential security issues due to the theft of exchanges. Even the most important means of payment, bitcoin's purchase and sale of goods is less pitiful than the actual amount of money paid. Even the most widely used cryptocurrency field in blockchain technology is only stuck in trading demand. However, from the perspective of the potential of Bitcoin, if the efficiency and risk considerations can be completed, its two characteristics will make the value of blockchain technology stand out, including:
1. Irreversible transaction records
As a double-entry bookkeeping technique, every ten minutes on the blockchain is completely recorded, and any modification to any previous transaction record will result in changes to all subsequent transaction records, thus ensuring its traceability. Moreover, it is open and transparent throughout the network, which is beneficial to many inquiries.
2. Decentralized transaction records
The blockchain technology with improved efficiency allows everyone to share the technology sharing of the whole network and avoid the accounting rights falling into the centralized personal, so the transaction records can be stored all over the world, ensuring the authenticity and traceability of the bookkeeping effect. .
There is a "center" at a certain point in the blockchain, but it does not affect the decentralized core.
financial:Can the biggest breakthrough in the application of blockchain scenarios be “decentralized” operations?
Zong Liang:What attracts investors the most bitcoin is the “de-centered” chain concept. The reason for decentralization is that the centralization trend of some systems and systems tends to be serious, and there is no checks and balances and supervision. People are forced to succumb to a centralized system design. For example, the modern financial system is very central, and some of the drawbacks of the modern financial system stem from its centralized institutional structure. The emergence of Bitcoin seems to give people a complete solution to the problem. But the fact is that there is no center on the surface of the blockchain, but there is a so-called "center" under certain circumstances.
For each kind of "chain", it is possible to have a center in itself, which is the center of computing power. For Bitcoin, if the power of any node in this blockchain exceeds 50% of the total network computing power at that time, it becomes the "center" of the chain, and the information on the chain can be to modify. And this phenomenon has happened in some other "chains". For example, in the past Ethereum, in the early days, some large miners team mastered the computing power of Ethereum more than 50%. At this time, they are essentially "chains". center". The bitcoin blockchain is difficult to have a node power of more than 50% because of the huge global computing power. The decentralized nature of the feature has been a misunderstanding of many people in the blockchain, because the center may exist due to the accumulation of a large number of resources.