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iPhone replacement cycle extended to 4 years This year only 16% will be replaced by new iPhone
On February 9, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said that the renewal cycle of the iPhone has been extended, which may cause trouble for Apple. He said that the fiscal year 2018 is about every three years, and the upgrade period for the iPhone in the 2019 fiscal year is about every four years. Sacconaghi expects 16% of the 900 million iPhone users to purchase a new iPhone in FY 2019.
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a report to investors on Friday that people are more insistent on using the iPhone than ever before, which may cause trouble for Apple because consumers are not often upgraded to new models. .
The iPhone replacement cycle is growing a lot, and Sacconaghi points out that people are using their iPhones for longer because of APPle's battery replacement program, operator subsidies, and higher prices for new machines.
Apple CEO Tim Cook also confirmed the analysis on the company's earnings conference call last month.
Cook said that customers' holding time on the old iPhone is longer than in the past, and the macroeconomic factors of emerging markets have affected the iPhone revenue by 15% compared to last year.
Sacconaghi said that 16% of iPhone users will buy a new iPhone this year, and Apple's 2020 "provided products are unlikely to stimulate the acceleration of the iPhone replacement cycle."
He wrote, "In our opinion, the most important controversy surrounding Apple today is the iPhone replacement cycle. Although the iPhone installed base grew by 9% last year, we expect iPhone sales to fall 19% in FY 2019, which means iPhone update. The replacement cycle has increased dramatically."
Apple recently stopped reporting the number of iPhones sold each quarter. In its first quarter earnings report, Apple began reporting on the iPhone installation base, including new and second-hand iPhones. There are now 900 million iPhones in use.
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