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    INE crude oil closed up due to the decline of API three major stocks OPEC warned to prepare for the crash

    2019-03-14 08:13:33

    Huitong Net 

    On Wednesday (March 13), Shanghai crude oil prices rose. The main contract SC1904 closed at 445.5 yuan / barrel, up 0.8 yuan, or 0.18%. OPEC warned Wall Street's large banking institutions on the US Congress Hill "N-OPEC" legislation, saying that it would open the faucet of crude oil, causing oil prices to collapse. US March 8 week, API crude oil inventories - 2.58 million barrels, expected +286 million barrels, the previous value of + 7.97 million barrels; API Cushing area crude oil inventory - 1.1 million barrels, the previous value +113 million barrels; API gasoline inventory - 5.8 million barrels, the former value of -391,000 barrels. The short-term market is still tight on crude oil supply expectations, but this positive support for prices is declining marginally. In the absence of new bullish boosts, the oil market rebound is difficult to sustain in the short term.

    Venezuela’s recent crude oil production has dropped by 500,000 barrels per day due to power outages. Venezuelan President Maduro announced in a televised speech on the evening of 12th that Venezuela had won the attack against the power system of the Commission, and the national power supply has basically recovered.

    Transaction summary

    Shanghai crude oil prices have risen. The main contract SC1904 closed at 445.5 yuan / barrel, up 0.8 yuan, or 0.18%. The total contract turnover was 257,518 lots, and the positions decreased by 3,502 lots to 62,884 lots. The main contract traded 240,012 lots, and the positions decreased by 3,982 lots to 32,498 lots.

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    China and overseas news

    [In 2018, natural gas consumption in Guangdong Province increased by 12% year-on-year]

    According to the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, energy consumption in Guangdong Province maintained steady growth in 2018. Among them, natural gas consumption is about 22 billion cubic meters, up 12% year-on-year. It is the fastest growing energy consumption in the province; coal consumption is about 168 million tons, down 2% year-on-year; oil consumption is about 33.415 million tons, up year-on-year. 7.23%; the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 632.3 billion kWh, an increase of 6.11% year-on-year; the highest load for the whole year was adjusted to 109 million kilowatts.

    [This Friday's domestic refined oil price adjustment will usher in the first time in the year]

    At 24 o'clock on March 14th, the refined oil price adjustment window will be opened again, and it is expected that it will be stranded for the first time in the year. Li Yan, an analyst of Longzhong Information Oil, said that as of March 11, the overall rate of change in crude oil was -1.04%, corresponding to a downward adjustment of 40 yuan/ton. According to the regulations, when the price adjustment is less than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made, and it will be added or offset when it is included in the next price adjustment. In terms of international oil prices, during the current round of price adjustment, due to the firmer position of OPEC's production reduction and the fact that US crude oil production hit a record high, the international oil price change rate first dropped and then rose. Therefore, the probability of stranding this round is relatively high. According to the reporter, as of now, the domestic refined oil price adjustment has been carried out 4 times in 2019, totaling 4 times, down 0 times, stranded 0 times, gasoline has been raised by 670 yuan / ton, and diesel has been raised by 645 yuan / ton. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment bureau in 2019 will become "four rises and zeros and one stranded." The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 28, 2019. At present, the favorable factors of the international crude oil market still prevail, and it is expected that there will be an increase in the next round of refined oil price adjustment.

    [PetroChina Executives: China-US Oil and Gas Cooperation is Complementary]

    The prospects for cooperation between China and the US in the energy sector are promising. Under the promotion of trade facilitation measures, China will increase imports of oil and gas from the United States. This will play a positive role in improving the trade structure between the two countries. "It is also an effective choice for China to diversify its energy imports." In the past few years, the Chinese government has combined energy structure adjustment and air pollution control to increase the intensity of coal to gas, promote clean heating, and rapidly increase demand for natural gas. The future market has great potential. In the past 10 years, the US oil and gas industry has undergone revolutionary changes, and the United States has become a major oil and gas producer in the world. Forecasts indicate that by 2025, the United States will become the world's largest exporter of LNG. The development experience and practices of the US energy industry are worth learning from China.

    [Qinghai Oilfield has produced a total of 1.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas and an average daily output of 800,000 cubic meters]

    China PetroleumThe Qinghai Oilfield Company of the Natural Gas Group Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “Qinghai Oilfield”) disclosed on the 12th that Qinghai Oilfield’s winter and spring production “strong momentum” is strong, with an average daily output of 800,000 cubic meters. This year, it has produced 1.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Qinghai Oilfield is located in Haixi Prefecture, Qaidam Basin, Qinghai Province, with an area of ​​about 265,000 square kilometers. It is the world's highest oil and gas field and one of the earliest developed oil fields in China. The oil resources in this area are more than 4 billion tons. The natural gas resources are nearly 100 billion cubic meters. Liu Fenghe, head of the production and operation department of Qinghai Oilfield, said that in order to protect the gas demand in the three provinces of Gansu, Qinghai and Tibet, the daily natural gas volume of Qinghai Oilfield has increased to 18 million cubic meters, and the supply rate has reached 100%. It can be said that natural gas has Become the main clean energy source of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

    Institutional perspective

    Huatai Futures: Saudi Arabia will still reduce crude oil exports

    Recently, Saudi Arabia said that it will continue to cut production in April, and its export volume will drop to less than 7 million barrels per day, making its supply and refinery customers' demand gap 600,000 barrels per day, due to Saudi Arabia’s exports to Europe and the United States. Down to the low level, we expect that the biggest impact of the decline in exports is still the Asia-Pacific market. The recent decline in EFS continues to show that the market's expectations for “East Tisson” have further intensified. We also mentioned in the monthly report that Saudi Arabia’s purpose is hope. By reducing exports, the global imbalance in supply and demand of oil is avoided, but it will increase the imbalance between supply and demand in the region. EFS is still required to maintain a low level to achieve an increase in trade flows to the eastern region of the Western Region.

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    Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei

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