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    Financial breakfast: the dollar was hit hard. Sterling soared 300 points to a nine-month high

    2019-03-14 08:25:47

    Huitong Net 

    On Wednesday (March 13), the US dollar fell sharply. The US dollar index hit a low of 96.37 since March 4, after the new inflation data increased the possibility that the US will not raise interest rates in the short term; the British pound has soared nearly 300 points against the US dollar. It hit a new high of 1.3381 since June 14 last year, after the British Parliament vetoed the possibility of no agreement to leave the European Union under any circumstances.

    The gold price hit a two-week high, and the spot gold once broke through $1310. The US economic data is tepid, strengthening the view that the Fed will be patient with monetary policy, and the uncertainty of the Brexit agreement before the key vote. It also boosted the attractiveness of gold prices. US oil rose more than 2% due to an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories last week, and the official estimate of US crude oil supply growth, the world's largest oil producer, was lowered.

    Commodities closed, COMEX April gold futures closed up $11.2, up 0.86% to $1309.30 per ounce. WTI April crude oil futures closed up 1.39 US dollars, or 2.44%, to 58.26 US dollars / barrel; Brent May crude oil futures closed up 0.88 US dollars, or 1.32%, to 67.55 US dollars / barrel.

    The US stock market rose, the Dow Jones index closed up 148.20 points, or 0.58%, to 25,702.89 points; the S&P 500 index closed up 19.41 points, or 0.70%, to 2810.93 points; the Nasdaq index closed up 52.40 points, or 0.69%. Reported at 7643.41 points.

    Thursday Preview

    time country Indicator name The former value
    10:00 China Annual average retail sales of consumer goods in February (%) 8.2
    10:00 China Monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in February (%) 0.55
    10:00 China Annual average retail sales of consumer goods in January-February-YTD (%) 9
    10:00 China Annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in January-February-YTD (%) 6.2
    10:00 China Annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in February (%) 5.7
    10:00 China Annual rate of urban fixed assets investment in January-February-YTD (%) 5.9
    15:00 Germany February CPI annual rate final value (%) 1.6
    15:45 France February CPI annual rate final value (%) 1.3
    17:30 South Africa January gold production annual rate (%) -31
    20:30 United States The number of jobless claims for the week ending March 9 (10,000) 22.3
    20:30 United States The average weekly value of the number of people claiming unemployment benefits as of the end of March 9 (10,000) 22.63
    20:30 United States February monthly import price index (%) -0.5
    22:00 United States Annualized sales of new homes in January after the adjustment (10,000 households) 62.1

    10:00 China National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference on the national economy in January-February

    OPEC announces monthly crude oil market report (the specific announcement time of the monthly report is to be determined, generally announced around 18-20 pm Beijing time)

    The discussion on the extension of the Brexit is likely to end at 17:00 local time on Thursday (1:00 am on Friday, Beijing time)

    List of major global market conditions

    name Latest price Ups and downs Quote change
    The Shanghai Composite Index 3026.95 -33.36 -1.09%
    Shenzhen Stock Exchange 9592.05 -249.18 -2.53%
    Nikkei 225 21290.24 -213.45 -0.99%
    NASDAQ Index 7643.41 52.38 0.69%
    Dow Jones Industrial 25702.89 148.23 0.58%
    British FTSE 7159.19 8.04 0.11%
    De DAX 11572.41 48.24 0.42%
    Method CAC40 5306.38 36.13 0.69%

    The US stock market rose, and the data showed that the US economy is recovering and inflationary pressures are moderate. The S&P 500 index rose for the third consecutive day, regaining lost ground last week. The stock index held 2,800 points, hitting a four-month high. Only 2 of the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell.

    Goods

    name Latest price Ups and downs Quote change
    Spot gold 1309.12 7.54 0.58%
    Spot palladium 1554.34 15.43 1%
    Spot silver 15.454 0.014 0.09%
    Spot platinum 843.67 8.32 1%
    Hong Kong Gold 12110.00 67.00 0.56%
    US crude oil continuously 58.34 1.47 2.58%

    Gold prices hit a two-week high on Wednesday, as US economic data is tepid, reinforcing the Fed’s view that it will be patient with monetary policy, and the uncertainty of the Brexit agreement before the key vote also boosted the attractiveness of gold prices. . Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said the US PPI data was weaker than expected; this, coupled with news of Brexit, is helping gold prices.

    In February of this year, the US domestic producer price index rose by 1.9% year-on-year, the smallest annual increase since June 2017; this week's moderate inflation and disappointing producer price index supported the Fed's position of keeping interest rates unchanged. Weigh on the dollar and boost demand for interest-free gold; the Fed’s interest rate setting committee will issue the next policy statement after the March 19-20 meeting; the gold price broke through the psychological barrier of $1,300 on Tuesday, helped by the dollar’s ​​weakness US demand for US dollar was weakened due to weaker-than-expected inflation data in February, and demand for US dollar was hit; the second attempt by British Prime Minister Teresa Meito failed, leaving Britain ahead of the EU on March 29 Plunging into a deeper political crisis and reducing risk appetite.

    Crude oil futures rose about 2%, due to an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories last week, and the official estimate of US crude oil supply growth, the world's largest oil producer, was lowered; a large-scale power outage in Venezuela caused the country's crude oil exports to come to a standstill, helping to tighten The market; US sanctions against Venezuela have reduced crude oil exports to the country.

    EIA said that US crude oil inventories fell last week due to refinery production; EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, analysts estimated an increase of 2.7 million barrels; Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said that The refinery maintenance period is gradually over. Under the influence of the OPEC production cuts and the supply problems in Venezuela, it may be seen that the inventory will fall further in the next few weeks. The maintenance of the refinery is over, which seems to provide a good support for crude oil. .

    Other EIA data showed that US crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day last week. EIA said on Tuesday that US crude oil production growth in 2019 is expected to be slower than previous forecasts, with an average production forecast of 1,230. 10,000 barrels per day; exports of the main crude oil terminal in Venezuela have stagnated, due to the country’s worst power outage in history, causing power outages in most parts of the country for about a week; according to data from two sources, the terminal resumed operations before Wednesday. However, loading has not yet begun; in recent days, electricity has been restored in many parts of the country.

    Foreign exchange

    The US dollar fell sharply on Wednesday, and the US dollar index hit a low of 96.37 since March 4, after the new inflation data increased the possibility that the US will not raise interest rates in the short term. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, the US producer price index (PPI) barely rose in February and set the smallest year-on-year increase in more than a year and a half. This is the latest sign of moderate inflation, supporting the Fed’s wait-and-see attitude toward further interest rate hikes this year. US economic data in February was weaker than expected. Last month, employment increased by only 20,000, down 94% from January. The consumer price index and producer price index released this week were unexpectedly mild to weak.

    Shahab Jalinoos, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Credit Suisse, said that the data is not very cross-cutting, not enough to create a trend of ups and downs, and does not really see the subject of economic differentiation, which can push the foreign exchange market to have a bigger market.

    Sterling rose more than 2% against the US dollar, soaring nearly 300 points, hitting a new high of 1.3381 since June 14 last year. Previously, the British Parliament rejected the possibility of no agreement to leave the European Union under any circumstances. This non-binding vote will increase pressure on British Prime Minister Teresa May to rule out the possibility of a “no agreement” to leave the European Union, paving the way for a postponement of the Brexit vote in the UK. If the UK really seeks to postpone the Brexit, it will require the consent of the other 27 member states of the European Union.

    International financial news

    [British parliament vetoed no agreement to leave the European Union in the voting] The parliament voted 312 votes to 308 votes in favor of the so-called Spelman amendment, rejecting the non-agreement of Brexit in a clearer terms than Prime Minister Theresa May’s own motion.

    [U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week] According to data released by EIA, as of March 8th, the US commercial crude oil inventories except strategic reserves decreased by 3.862 million barrels to 449.1 million barrels, a decrease of 0.9%. Last week, gasoline inventories fell by 4.624 million barrels, and the change recorded a decline for four consecutive weeks. Last week, US domestic crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels to 12 million barrels per day, and US domestic crude oil production hit a new low since the week of December 14, 2018 (13 weeks).

    [British sharply cuts GDP growth forecast for 2019] British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond issued a spring budget report: downgrade the economic growth forecast for 2019 from 1.6% to 1.2%, and maintain the GDP growth rate forecast of 2020 unchanged at 1.4%, up 2021 The annual GDP growth rate is expected to reach 1.6%.

    Domestic macro

    [The front page of the China Securities Journal: Free Trade Zone "Yanling" soaring high-level open upgrade] China's free trade zone construction "wild geese" flying, is leading a high level of open "green clouds straight up." In the process of “creating greater autonomy in reform and innovation in the Pilot Free Trade Zone” and “exploring the construction of a free trade port with Chinese characteristics”, China’s free trade zone and free trade port construction are expected to present a magnificent picture of the hundreds of battles and accumulate “a bold test”. We have a wealth of experience in boldness and self-improvement, and promote high-quality development with a high level of openness.

    Domestic stock market

    [Capital short-term acceleration into the Chinese market] There are many indications that funds are accelerating into the Chinese market since the beginning of 2019. Data show that from January to February 2019, the average monthly net purchases of funds from Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangdong Port increased to RMB 60.54 billion, far exceeding the monthly average of RMB 24.52 billion in 2018. At the same time, as of the end of February 2019, China's foreign exchange reserves were 309.02 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.3 billion US dollars from the end of January, an increase of 0.1%. China's foreign exchange reserves rose for the fourth consecutive month. According to industry insiders, since the November last year, the RMB exchange rate has shown a steady upward trend, which has played a significant role in boosting capital flows into China. (by reference)

    [Securities Daily Front Review: Really hard to implement tax cuts and reductions, enterprises increase vitality stock market to add momentum] Under the background of greater economic downward pressure, tax reduction fees can have an immediate effect, stabilize market expectations and implement the central economy. The major measures taken by the working conference to "encourage the vitality of various market players", the "reduction" of government revenue will be exchanged for the "increasing" of enterprise efficiency and market vitality. The recent rise in the stock market, especially the rise of the ChiNext, has many factors, but the improvement in performance expectations after tax cuts is undoubtedly an important aspect. Recently, some companies have indicated that they have begun to account for the impact of tax reductions on performance. I believe that by the time this year's report is announced, "water and fish farming" will achieve significant results, investors will see the tax reduction and fee reduction in the performance of listed companies.

    Domestic property market

    [Securities Daily Review: Taxation Addition and Subtraction Method to Help Explore Long-Term Real Estate Mechanisms] Whether it is the promotion of the real estate tax legislation process or the reduction of second-hand housing transaction taxes and fees, although they are adjustments to the local taxation, It is also part of the national “tax reduction and fee reduction” game. First of all, the application of the tax increase and subtraction method in the real estate sector is the meaning of the active fiscal policy. Secondly, the use of subtraction is conducive to revitalizing stocks and helping to stabilize market prices. In short, for housing, whether it is just needed or improving demand, it is an important part of the Chinese economy to enter a stage of high-quality development, and people express their yearning for a better life.

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    Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei

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