US-European trade frictions are burning again: "three zeros" negotiations or opening up "difficult mode"

1comment 2019-04-14 15:23:34 source:International financial newspaper Author:Yuan Yuan Just do it next week! Steady!

With the approaching of the US presidential election in 2020, in order to attract the attention of voters, each candidate has many means.

In order to re-elect, US President Trump continued to implement the "US priority" policy in order to meet the needs of big companies and blue-collar voters in order to serve Boeing in the world.aviationThe field retrieved the "field" and targeted the guns of trade sanctions to the EU...

Recently, Trump said in a hot word on social media, "The World Trade Organization (WTO) found that the EU's subsidies to Airbus have adversely affected the US economy. To this end, the United States will have 11 billion.DollarThe EU exports to the United States to impose tariffs! The EU has been a cheaper American in trade for many years! This situation will soon stop! ”

On the previous day, the Office of the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) said it was preparing a tax list for EU products as a means of retaliation against EU subsidized Airbus. It is reported that the list covers products ranging from wine, helicopters, olive oil, women's swimwear, frozen seafood, hunting knives to a variety of cheese products.

The US move is at a time when its trade relations with the EU are tense, and Trump is using tariffs to negotiate with the EU, Japan and other trading partners.

Faced with the threat from the United States, the Airbus spokesperson immediately said that the United States has pointed its finger at the lack of legal basis for Airbus. He also warned the United States that this will further lead to tensions between the United States and Europe in the aircraft manufacturing industry.

However, the EU also responded that the example cited by the US Trade Representative Office is too "exaggerated" and the EU is preparing to fight back.

The EU has not disclosed which US exports to Europe to pull into the retaliation list, but according to Airbus, the EU will impose larger retaliatory sanctions against the United States.

  15 years of subsidy war

In fact, in order to subsidize this matter, the United States and the European Union have completely fought for 15 years from the initial “retreat”, “litigation”, “ruling” and “not executing” to the present “retaliation”.

The source of the battle between the two sides is a bilateral aircraft subsidy agreement signed by the EU and the United States in 1992. The agreement allows the EU to subsidize 1/3 of R&D spending for Airbus' new civil aircraft, and Boeing is allowed to benefit from US government-backed R&D efforts.

Later, Airbus's shipments grew rapidly and surpassed Boeing in 2003. Subsequently, the United States withdrew from the agreement in October 2004 and filed a lawsuit against the WTO. The EU also did not show weakness to counterattack. After several rounds, both sides have won and lost.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on June 1, 2011, the WTO ruled on the EU illegal subsidy for Airbus: the EU has illegal subsidies, the illegal subsidy funds reached 18 billion US dollars, and requested the EU to ban any additional subsidies to Airbus. . In March 2012, the United States filed a lawsuit against the WTO on the outcome of the ruling, arguing that the EU did not fulfill the ruling.

But at the same time, the United States did not ask for it. In March 2012, the WTO ruled that Boeing’s billions of dollars in subsidies were illegal and asked the United States to stop this measure. A few months later, the EU filed a new complaint with the WTO, accusing the United States of not complying with the order.

In June 2017, the WTO again announced that although the United States has terminated 28 of the 29 illegal subsidies for Boeing, the WTO agrees with the EU that it is illegal for the United States to cut taxes for Boeing. The United States has not taken appropriate measures to remove the adverse effects and has not completely eliminated the subsidies.

In May 2018, the WTO determined that Airbus accepted the EU's $22 billion illegal subsidy on the A350 and A380 passenger planes, which damaged Boeing's interests.

On March 28 this year, the WTO again ruled on the US subsidy for Boeing, saying that the US government failed to comply with the 2012 ruling to stop subsidies. The result of this judgment is also echoing the 2017 judgment.

However, for this ruling, both the United States and Europe have declared that they have won.

The reason why the EU believes that it wins is that the WTO ruling proves the illegal subsidy of Boeing in the United States.

European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said in a statement: "The WTO Appellate Body has ruled this case and confirmed our view that the United States is still subsidizing Boeing in violation of WTO regulations."

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer declared that the ruling was a victory for the United States because the WTO only found one violation.

  It’s hard to beat it.

Although the WTO cannot enforce its ruling, it can agree to the retaliatory measures taken by the complainant. These measures can theoretically force trade operators to submit.

In view of this, on April 8, the US Trade Representative Office issued a list of 11 billion US dollars of EU goods, and used the "Article 301" mechanism of the US Trade Law to threaten to add goods to the list on the grounds of unfair trade. Tariffs until the EU cancels subsidies related to enterprises.

The US Trade Representative Office has specially named it. Airbus has been ruled by the WTO and has received illegal subsidies from the European Union, "which has caused persistent adverse effects on the United States."

According to the WTO's "Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes" (DSU), the United States must obtain the authorization of the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) before it can impose tariffs on EU products. However, if the EU opposes the scope of US retaliation, it may file an arbitration request with the WTO.

Therefore, the US side stated that tariffs will only be implemented after WTO approval.

At the same time, Wright Heze said that when the EU cancels harmful subsidies, the US will also lift additional tariffs.

Analysts believe that the Trump administration intends to force the EU to negotiate with a tariff threat to gain the initiative and ask the other party to make a profit.

However, it is not easy to make the EU soft. According to the latest news, the EU will adopt a larger retaliatory measure against the United States.

Earlier, many analysts believed that the US-European battle on civil aviation subsidies would not be enough, and it would not develop to the point of using trade sanctions. However, as the global trade situation continues to be tense, the momentum of mutual tit-for-tat and mutual retaliation is becoming more and more prominent. .

It is worth noting that the U.S.’s tax increase for the EU is at a delicate time for US-European trade relations.

Last year, in Trump, Canada, Mexico and the European Union added steelaluminumAfter the tariff, the EU against 2.8 billionEURU.S. imports (about $3.2 billion) have retaliatory tariffs.

The US products included in the EU tax increase list include orange juice, bourbon whisky, blue jeans, motorcycles and variousSteelproduct. Most of these products are specialties of the Republican Party’s hometown in the US Congress. The move is clear and aims to beat the Republican Party’s "life gate" in the midterm elections.

In July last year, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker expressed his willingness to negotiate on tariff reduction. Subsequently, the United States and Europe entered a fragile "outset period." But Trump still threatens to impose tariffs on the EU auto industry.

On April 12th, the British "Financial Times" reported that the EU agreed to vote on whether to authorize the European Commission to negotiate with the United States on Monday (April 15) without discussion, which will also be dedicated to the launch. CancellationindustryThe agreement on product tariffs paved the way.

The EU is now in the final stages of negotiations with the US government on the “three zeros” (zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies) licensing terms for industrial products. Bloomberg commented that the threat of taxation issued by the Trump administration may make the US-European negotiations more difficult.

  American trade chess game

From the perspective of the entire trade environment, the US tax increase plan for the EU is only one step in its trade "big game." Currently, the United States is still engaged in trade negotiations with countries such as Japan, Canada, and India.

It is reported that the United States and Japan plan to hold the first round of trade dialogue in Washington from April 15th to 16th. Trump has previously shown dissatisfaction with Japan's trade surplus with the US$69 billion, and two-thirds of it comes from auto exports.

It is reported that the Minister of Economic Recycling of Japan, Mao Mumin, is the key figure in this negotiation. He does not intend to surrender unconditionally to the United States, emphasizing that any plan must be mutually beneficial.

Today, Canada and Mexico are still on the US steel and aluminum tax list, and the three legislatures are also preparing to approve the new US-Mega trade agreement.

However, on March 26, the Wall Street Journal quoted the Canadian Foreign Minister as saying that the government may postpone the approval of the new North American Free Trade Agreement, the US-Mega Trade Agreement (USMCA), until the US government is willing to cancel imports from Canada. The "tolls" imposed by steel and aluminum. The Canadian Foreign Minister said that the United States charged a high amount of "tolls" that many Canadians did not agree to ratify the agreement.

Also in March, Trump decided to end the GSP tariff concessions for Indian exports to the United States, which was originally designed to assist developing countries in their economic development. In response, the Indian side said it would impose tariffs on US apples and other products.

Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator and currently working for the Asia Society, said that we are still in the same “customs world” as last year, which is full of risks and uncertainties, although Trump uses tariffs to force the EU, Japan and other trades. The partners started negotiations, but one day, it is difficult to guarantee that this means will not be counterproductive.

Keyword reading:Three zero Frozen seafood WendyCutler US and European trade Combustion

Editor in charge: Shen Xuejiao RF13056
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