Mei Lan will reach an agreement with the Labor Party in the next few weeks. Will the pound rise to a good chance?

1comment 2019-04-15 08:52:38 source:Huitong Net The second beauty energy comes!

Monday (April 15) during the Asian session,GBPAgainst the US dollar, the price fluctuated slightly. Currently trading around 1.3085, the direct risk surrounding the British retreat has subsided after the Brexit date has been postponed, and the US dollar has suffered widespread selling, but the sharp decline in volatility indicates that investors are reluctant to make big bets. .

The EU agreed to postpone the Brexit time for up to six months until October 31, removing the short-term threat of the UK's non-agreement to leave the European Union, but I am afraid it will also put the UK into political uncertainty for several months.Commodity futureAccording to data from the Trading Commission, by the week of April 9, the pound against the dollar was cut to 6516 short positions, the lowest level of short positions since 2018; relatively speaking, the chance of the pound long has increased.

Hammond believes that it is very likely that the Labor Party will reach an agreement on the European Union agreement in the next few weeks.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said that the British government and major opposition parties agree on the basic principles of Brexit, and it is possible to make a breakthrough in the next few weeks.

Hammond said that although the parliament is in the intersessional period, negotiations with the Labour Party to seek a new Brexit consensus will continue next week, and the government has not set a red line for the negotiations. There are differences in priorities and methods, but the two sides agree on the “fundamental”.“We are very likely to reach an agreement on the future direction in the coming weeks.”

Hammond’s comments on the occasion, the United KingdomGovernment officialsThe talks with the Labor Party were resumed in order to reach an agreement on the Brexit approach. The United Kingdom originally scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, but had to ask the EU to postpone it twice. The latest plan reached at the EU summit in Brussels this week is that the UK will withdraw from the EU on October 31.

Hammond also said that political uncertainty has damaged the reputation of the UK. "We have to take some measures to restore our reputation and calm down."

Teresa May will not resign before she realizes Brexit

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said on Friday thatTeresa May will continue to serve as the British Prime Minister to complete the Brexit, even if it means she will continue to hold the position by the end of October.

Teresa May has promised that once the Brexit agreement is passed in Parliament, she will step down as prime minister so that the new leader can take responsibility for the next phase of the Brexit negotiations, with a focus on future partnerships with the EU. Many of the ruling Conservatives want to force her out as soon as possible, but Hammond hints that they will be disappointed.

International in WashingtonMonetary FundDuring the organization meeting, Hammond is accepting Bloomberg TV? Francine Lacqua said in an interview, "As far as I know, she did not have any intention to leave until the agreement was completed." “She is a person with a strong sense of mission. She believes she has an obligation to realize the Brexit for the British people. She wants to fulfill this obligation.”

Britain's Brexit extension, the pound is expected to remain in place in the short term

Although the immediate threat of non-agreement of Brexit in the UK has been lifted, the sterling analyst is still trying to find reasons for optimism.

As the UK and the European Union agreed to extend the European deadline to October 31, the pound was stronger, but its gains were far below what the strategists had predicted. The outlook for the pound is still being weighed down by the longer-term economic losses after the Brexit and the increase in domestic political risk.

Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at the Dutch cooperative bank, saidEven with the signing of the agreement, my optimism about the rebound of the pound has weakened. This is the prospect of the British economy, but the process of Brexit has also brought chaos to British politics..

  Huitong NetRemind that a survey of strategists last month found that they expected the Brexit delay to raise the pound to $1.33. But the Dutch cooperative bank and Mizuho Bank strategist said that the currency will not rise from the current level in the next six months.

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(Pound Sterling against the US dollar daily chart)

  Huitong.com reminds us that this week we will also welcome UK employment data, CPI data,PPI data and retail sales data, investors also need to pay attention; also need to pay attentionDollar indexThe trend.

Mitsubishi UFJFinancial AnalystLee Hardman said that the slight increase in the pound last Friday (April 12) was mainly due to the weakening of the dollar across the board. After the data showed that China's exports rebounded last month, investors turned to riskier assets. The pound is still in the near trading range. After a strong 2019, if there is no new clue to the Brexit results, the pound is unlikely to rise sharply.

Lee Hardman predicts thatThe pound will consolidate and may continue to see the pound volatility within the range.

At 8:15 Beijing time, the pound against the US dollar is now at 1.3084/86.

Keyword reading:GBP

Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei
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