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    Commodity market observation: February gold has relative income

    2019-02-02 10:36:14

    Monita Macro Research Chen Qiuqi et al

    Recommended reading:Is the gold bull market going to open soon?

    Report summary

    gold: February gold has relative income, the main logic: 1) Under the continuation of global liquidity contraction, US stocks may maintain high volatility and benefit gold prices. 2) The downward pressure on the US economy is still limited, the actual interest rate is weak, and the impact on the value of gold allocation is neutral. 3) The downside of the US dollar index is limited, which is not conducive to a sharp rise in the price of gold. 4) At the transaction level, as of January 30, the SPDR gold ETF holdings reached 823.87 tons, an increase of 36.2 tons from the end of last month. The increase was higher than last month. It can be seen that investors' current investment preference for gold.

    crude:Several potential factors supporting the rise in oil prices in February may come from the logic of supply contraction, including: 1) OPEC+ production cut-off rate data remains at a high level; Libya is expected to continue to decline due to the shutdown of the Sharara oil field. 2) The decrease in the number of US oil rigs has caused the growth of US crude oil production to slow down or stagnate. Considering the market's worries about the slowdown in global economic growth, the trend of rising oil prices also needs macroeconomic real data support.

    copper: The macro economy is still facing huge downward pressure in February, and copper prices are under pressure. 1) The supply side is expected to remain stable, and the impact of disturbances such as strikes may be absent. 2) The demand side is affected by the macro economy. In February, the macro economy at home and abroad still faced huge downward pressure: the PMI index in Japan and the Eurozone fell sharply in January, while the official manufacturing PMI in China in January was 49.5, which was lower than the second consecutive month. 3) LME copper rebounded slightly in recent months and in the long-term, indicating that the market's confidence in future prices has increased, but whether it is sustainable remains to be further verified.

    aluminum: The United States has lifted sanctions. Russia's aluminum superposition and inventory situation is still grim, and electrolytic aluminum prices will be under pressure in the first and second quarters of this year. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase or increase significantly due to the resumption of production by Rusal and the world's fifth largest aluminum company, Hydro; demand is weak due to end-use consumption in real estate and automobiles, and demand for electrolytic aluminum continues to weaken; domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks Still in the high position, the situation of electrolytic aluminum destocking is still grim; in terms of cost, if Rusal is re-produced, the supply of alumina will increase, the price of alumina in China will fall, and the price of aluminum will lack the support of cost. . (Monita Macro Research Chen Qiuyu Wang Xiaoyu)

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