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The fund of the investment strategy of the Year of the Pig
Zhu Ping, Deputy General Manager of GF Fund
The Chinese economy will continue to undergo transformation and upgrading. Although the process of transformation is inevitably tormented, it is expected to establish a new cycle after the resurrection of Nirvana. Specific to investment, 2019 stock selection is relatively easy than 2018, the core is to find high-quality stocks, looking for "flowers of hope."
If the 2018 market has already reached the bottom, then the stock market in 2019 will likely have positive returns, and investing in stocks may be easier than in 2018. The market adjustment of the bear market is usually divided into two phases, the first phase is the valuation adjustment, and the second phase is the profit adjustment. At present, A-shares have fully absorbed the pressure of valuation adjustment and began to reflect the impact of the decline in earnings. For high-quality companies, when the financial statements show a decline in performance, the stock price may not be adjusted. At present, the overall valuation of A shares is close to the bottom area. The relatively cheap and high-quality weak-period stocks are easy to lead the market out of independent rising market.
From the perspective of the macro environment, the Chinese economy will continue to follow the path of transformation in 2019. Although the transformation and upgrading is very painful, it is also a process that Nirvana must relive. I am still full of confidence in China's future development.
The investment in 2019 should grasp two key points. The first is to control a reasonable position, and the second is to arrange a high-quality company that can continue to grow under a weak cycle, and carefully pay attention to the early cycle company. The core of investment is to find high-quality stocks and look for “flowers of hope”.
For the upcoming Science and Technology Board, this will be an important part of the capital market, but the investment logic is different from other industries. Science and Technology investment should go deep into the research of individual stocks along the direction of future science and technology development. If you can screen out the next innovation cycle of “BAT” companies, it will hope to grasp the dividends brought by the growth of dozens or even hundreds of times in the future.
Market or structured opportunity
Wu Xinrong, deputy general manager of E Fund
Looking back on 2018, the market is full of turmoil, there are large fluctuations, and there are more positive changes. After more than a year of hard work, de-leverage has achieved staged results, and the self-controllable industrial upgrading path has become more firm. At the same time, a new round of policy adjustments guided by tax cuts and fee reductions is unveiled. Under the pressure of external pressure, China's policy direction, core variables and development prospects will become clearer in the next stage. The reform and opening up and the release of institutional dividends will bring about an upgrade of economic life and social systems, stimulate the intrinsic potential of the Chinese economy, and open up a new round of economic growth. We are convinced that the long-term growth trend of China's economy will not change.
We believe that there may be structural opportunities in the A19 market in 2019. On the one hand, the valuation of various industries has been at a historical low, and the attractiveness of high-quality stocks is prominent. On the other hand, the bottom of the macroeconomic and fundamentals of various industries still needs further observation, and the overall market opportunities still have to wait. At the same time, with the acceleration of the internationalization of A-shares, the proportion of long-term funds in A-shares and the right to speak will become higher and higher, and the investment ecology of the A-share market will change, and the value investment concept will be more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Investment is a long-distance running, and endurance talents can win in the long run. As a firm value investor, we will continue to do a good job in in-depth research and explore value investment opportunities, continue to focus on and actively adapt to market changes, and strive to create a real return on investment for the holder.
Focus on two types of opportunities
Investment Director of Agricultural Bank of China
In the turbulent market, the choice of structural opportunities has become a key point in investment decisions. In 2019, we focused on two types of opportunities.
The first category is the high-value dividend sector with long-term institutional funds (foreign capital, insurance, pensions, etc.), which will benefit from the institutional dividend in the medium and long term. In the downside of earnings and the downside of interest rates, the value of dividends will continue to be prominent, and we can focus on bond assets with stable cash flow, low valuation, and high dividend yield.
The second category is the growth direction of the high-end manufacturing sector. Capital market reforms such as Science and Technology in 2019 are important highlights, and can be divided into sub-sector opportunities that benefit from macro-policies to strengthen hedging and technological innovation, as well as improved prosperity, such as new energy, new energy vehicles, 5G, artificial intelligence. Information security. However, from 2014 to 2015, the probability of the “frozen theme” of the GEM bull market is difficult to reproduce, and more is to give the growth leader a higher premium based on the fundamentals.
On the whole, the 20-year A-share market index will have a high probability of oscillating, and structural opportunities will be a good opportunity for long-term investors.
Under the background of the overall institutional investment trend, the research requirements for selecting industries and selecting stocks will be more stringent, and only some high-quality companies will have excess returns, which raises higher investment requirements for unprofessional individual investors. . Therefore, unlike the previous retail market with strong gameplay, the future market environment, the advantages of outstanding professional institutional investors will be more prominent, and the industry's Matthew effect will be enhanced. We believe that excellent fund managers are still scarce, and researching investment capacity will build higher barriers than retail investors. We recommend that investors give fund managers more trust. In the possible year of the bull and bear turning point in 2019, they can actively deploy the A-share market through regular purchases of products (such as fund investment).
Three dimensions to grasp structural opportunities
Wang Hua, Deputy General Manager of Huashang Fund
In 2019, the overall economic slowdown is relatively clear. On this basis, the elasticity of aggregate demand is insufficient. It is more difficult for listed companies to have significant growth in overall profitability in the future, but the structural characteristics will be clear: advanced manufacturing, modern service industry and Consumption upgrades are worth looking forward to, especially the new infrastructure construction - 5G, industrial Internet, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence; industries with increasing penetration rate and replacement rate, such as electric power new energy and leading companies in sub-sectors, etc. The structural growth; raw material prices are significantly lower, and enterprises take the initiative to go to stocks, which will help some mid-stream enterprises to improve their profits. In addition, risk appetite and risk-free interest rates in 2019 are developing in a direction favorable to the market, which deserves our full attention.
In the 5G concept area that the market is generally concerned about, we need to “see the device and look at the application”. The 5G equipment industry chain belongs to the category of new infrastructure, and the industrial logic is smooth. However, due to the high market attention and the low valuation, and the potential impact of Sino-US trade friction, the valuation space is difficult to open completely. As for the application side, It may be an area with greater opportunities in the later period, especially in the process of improving the overall market risk appetite, but it is necessary to observe the progress of the industry.
The progress of the science and technology board is very eye-catching, and we believe that we need to pay attention to the valuation advantage of the existing high-quality growth stocks. It is undeniable that the science and technology board may have an impact on the market in the short term, but from the perspective of valuation, whether it is the market-to-sales ratio or the price-earnings ratio, the valuation of the board is relatively high. Under this circumstance, companies with better growth and leading technology on the main board will have certain investment opportunities due to large differences in valuation.
Considering that the economic situation for the whole year may be "relatively weak in the first half of the year and expected to stabilize in the second half of the year", the opportunity for blue chip stocks in the first half of the year lies in the valuation restoration brought by the risk-free rate of return; the economy stabilizes in the second half of the year, and the leading enterprises rely on strong R&D capability and high market concentration advantage are still the focus of our focus and investment. The potential of growth stocks deserves attention, especially in the context that the current valuation is basically reasonable, with the risk appetite escalating, the performance of growth stocks will be significantly better than 2018. In 2019, there is a need for balanced blue chips and growth in general, with moderate tilt at different stages.
Low valuation of the equity market
More configuration value
Deputy General Manager of Huaan Fund Weng Qisen
It is expected that the domestic economy will still be in the cyclical down phase in the first half of the year. Due to the retreat of monetization in the third and fourth tier cities, real estate sales data is still under downward pressure in the first quarter. Corresponding domestic macro policies are loose, but the intensity is limited. Monetary policy is still dominated by RRR cuts. Fiscal policy is constrained by local debt, with the issuance of special treasury bonds and regional construction. Tax reduction and fee reduction will be another main line of financial strength, and the substantive strength and effectiveness remain to be seen.
Although the economic downturn dragged down the growth of A-share earnings in 2019, the current equity market valuation has partially included expectations for this year's low growth rate. In addition, after the market was pessimistically adjusted by Sino-US trade friction last year, the stock market Great risk expectations have been released.
At present, whether it is a vertical comparison of major assets, or a horizontal comparison of the world's major equity markets, A-shares have a low valuation of asset allocation attractiveness. Looking at the whole year, domestic risk-free interest rates still have a downside, and domestic policy blowing warm winds will help to increase market risk appetite, and the relative advantage allocation value of equity will be further highlighted.
In addition, supervision has certain demands for stabilizing the capital market, promoting direct financing, and undertaking the responsibility of “high quality development”. The Central Economic Work Conference called for “building a dynamic and resilient capital market”. The launch of the Kechuang board will further raise market expectations. In addition, as MSCI, FTSE and Dow Jones Global Index will further increase the proportion of China's equity market, the participation of long-term funds such as foreign capital and insurance will help stabilize the market within a reasonable range.
At present, it is in the stage of economic downturn, and the industry is configured with the policy force, the weak cycle of the upswing, and the reverse cycle as the main configuration direction. Optimistic about foreign capital inflows will further select high-value leading stocks and emerging growth stocks arising from the upgrading of China's structure.
Change becomes the main theme
Founding Partner of Hongdao Investment Sun Jiandong
The change will be the main theme of this year's market, mainly the accumulation of long-term growth in both internal and external aspects. From the interaction between China and the US-led international system, the trade dividend will have a reversal point since 2001, which has led to the pressure of macro-balance of payments to close the space for domestic investment and general fiscal expansion. The debt capacity of local governments and residents is also approaching saturation point. De-leverage is essentially a disorderly and invisible liability that constrains local governments. We can see the pressure of household consumption from the increase in the debt ratio of residents. In short, 20 years of real estate to create credit, through debt-driven economic growth model has come to an end.
For a long time in the future, we can see the two biggest changes:
First, the macroeconomic growth rate will have a long and sustained decline process, and generalized deflation will become the new normal. When the pressure of economic growth slows down, the strength of the central government will break through the historical experience of the past ten years. In January and even the first quarter, the central government used administrative and market-oriented methods to break through the liquidity trap and promote credit and credit. It is not to re-take the old road, but to superimpose the gradual easing of Sino-US trade frictions, and provide a reform and disruption for the latter. "Window of time."
Second, after the situation of traditional debt investment changes, direct financing and capital markets will become the engine of economic upgrading and transformation. Under the new normal of deflation, when the upgrade and transformation are promoted, the model of indirect financing and interest collection cannot match the high-risk and high-yield hard technology industry and emerging industries. Building a strong and efficient capital market is not only a wealth growth and (Hong Kong stocks) 00001) The problem of economic stability has become a problem that is related to national competitiveness and national security. Naturally, the deregulation, the innovation of mechanism and business, and the establishment of global competitiveness have become the meaning of the title. In the next few years, investors will gradually realize that the capital market is “complete and true”. Correspondingly, the securities industry is also occupying the main line in the main theme of change, and the reform of the securities industry will also have strategic significance at the national level.
Opportunity is greater than challenge
Founder of Shanghai Guofu Investment Chen Haifeng
This year will be a year in which challenges and opportunities coexist, and opportunities will outweigh challenges.
From a macro perspective, in 2018, affected by various factors, we may have experienced the most tragic stage of the current round of economic clearing. In 2019, this clearing process will continue, but it may gradually come to an end. Moreover, benefiting from a series of macro and micro policy optimization, internal and external environmental improvement, etc., the adverse impact of the economic downturn on micro-enterprise earnings is expected to weaken.
From a policy perspective, the overall market is more favorable. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank is actively using various innovative tools to help open the final path of funds from virtual to real, reduce corporate financing thresholds and financing costs. Moreover, under the background of the Fed’s rate hikes and expectations, the central bank’s monetary policy space is expected to open further. In terms of fiscal policy, the steady growth measures of the bottom economy are expected to increase. In addition to the tax reduction and fee reduction measures that have been introduced last year, the state has always stressed that there are more measures for tax reduction and fee reduction. In addition, in the context of macroeconomic transformation, the high-level has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the capital market, and the positioning of the capital market has been greatly improved.
From the perspective of valuation, A-shares have shown certain valuation advantages over major domestic and foreign assets, especially for domestic and foreign institutional investors such as social security, insurance, and QFII. If we further consider that the policy level is actively promoting the entry of long-term domestic investors into the market and expanding the opening of A-shares, institutional investors are expected to bring considerable incremental funds to the A-share market in 2019.
In terms of market sentiment, in 2018, investor risk appetite has fallen sharply, and long-term expectations for macroeconomics have become very pessimistic. We believe that this expectation may be too pessimistic and there is a large room for repair. And even if this expectation is reasonable, the market has responded to this expectation by a sharp fall.
A-share market is expected to usher in recovery
Xingju Investment Director Wang Xiaoming
The current Chinese economy urgently needs a structural reform, and the goal should be clear – to stabilize the long-term growth of consumption and investment. In this process, it is necessary to give full play to the role of market mechanism in rewarding and punishing the public, fully stimulate the willingness of all sectors of society to invest and consume, and correspondingly reduce taxes and fees, and increase the distribution of residents' income in the economy. Domestic demand has stabilized and the long-term growth of the Chinese economy has opened up. In terms of external demand, more or less depends on the success of internal reforms. Chinese enterprises will enter a new stage of globalization. At this stage, technical competition will become the main battlefield for Chinese and American companies. Chinese companies will enter the global competition stage of comprehensive efficiency, and technology, efficiency, brand and consumer experience will become the main battlefield for enterprise competition.
When we realize that it is difficult to continue the past growth path through simple extension and expansion, structural reforms have become more and more critical, and we must fully estimate the complexity of the stock market rebound in 2019 after the 2018 crisis. It is not advisable to expect too much optimism in the short term.
In the past few years, the Chinese stock market has been ups and downs. If there is anything worth learning from, I believe that it is necessary to return to the fundamentals of the company and focus on the leading companies in the preferred industry. We believe that in the process of economic downturn, leading companies have stronger anti-risk ability, and it is easier for leading companies in the reform and transformation to find the future direction. In the direction of choice, in line with the changes of the times, we believe that consumption, technology and finance will still lead the mainstream of China's economic activities.
We expect that with 2019 as the starting point, China's A-share market is expected to usher in a recovery and may become the starting point for an active market for a longer period of time.
Track mining industry leader
Hong Shang Asset CEO Shang Jian
At the most pessimistic moment, the instinct of the majority is to escape the risk. Some people say that 2018 is the toughest year for the securities market to remember, but at the moment of more than 2,500 points, it will not be more desperate than the 998 points in 2005. After going through the big bull market in 2005~2008, back Looking for 998 points, successful investors will be grateful. As Buffett said, all crises will become a thing of the past. The bear market will not remain a bear market. Every crisis is a good opportunity for greed to overcome fear and lead to excess returns.
We expect the market to stabilize and rebound under low expectations in 2019. Although the economy is still in the process of bottoming out, we are optimistic about the two key factors of this year's economy and market: Sino-US trade friction will find a compromise on a tight balance, and the government's steady growth policy will effectively control the economy and The downside of the market. The unexpected reform measures are worth looking forward to, and will likely bring surprises to the market. The economy is expected to confirm the bottom in the second half of this year, and the market will respond first.
The current economic recession provides a good opportunity for the rise of the future, and after the enterprises with poor competitiveness are eliminated, the status of the industry leader will be more stable, and the future profit margin will be expanded. In 2019, we will continue to focus on tracking and tapping the leading industries in the industry. In the competitive landscape, we will identify the industry's key layout, and focus on the corporate governance structure and financial stability. After the economic clearing and the baptism of the market, we believe that the market opportunity in 2019 will outweigh the risks.
Two factors need to be taken seriously
General Manager of Yuance Investment Zhang Yichi
Of the many factors that influence the rhythm or structure of the market, two factors need to be taken seriously:
First, the impact of foreign capital inflows on the A-share market is still deepening. In 2018, Lugangtong's inflow of A shares was close to 300 billion yuan. Driven by factors such as the continued expansion of the financial open policy and the continued increase in the proportion of MSCI's A-shares, the size of foreign-invested A-shares will increase significantly in 2019.
As a relatively certain incremental fund in the market, the inflow rate of foreign capital may affect the operating rhythm of the A-share market, and the stock selection will also become an important structural feature of the market. From the historical data, the top stocks in the north of the capital flow basically represent the pillar industries and leading companies of the Chinese economy, which in fact provides a thinking tool for A-share investors in stock selection.
Second, the market rethinks factors such as technology, growth, and productivity. The landing of the science and technology board is another important factor worthy of attention in 2019. The problem of population structure has become increasingly prominent, and the number of new births has been reduced. The time window of the next 10 years is a rare transition period that relies on technology to improve productivity.
In the past 40 years, the Chinese economy has relied on the promotion of “elevators” such as exports, real estate, and heavy chemical industries. Now, when it comes to the need to start “new elevators”, if the continuous inflow of foreign companies is mainly in the “old elevators”. Winners, then, investors also need to find successful companies in the “new elevator”.
After experiencing the cost of 2018, 2019 needs to be aware of the above-mentioned changes in market conditions and structural factors, such as “before” and “post-opening”, and it is surprisingly important in investment. In the face of a longer-term capital market, investors need to face up to the expectation of return on assets to return to common sense and rationality.
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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