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    Central European Fund: Why did the GEM fall by nearly 5 points?

    2019-03-13 22:12:06

    Central European Fund

    Today's GEM and Shenzhen Securities Index have significantly adjusted the overall performance of A-shares. The strong TMT and aquaculture sectors in the previous period have seen large declines. As of the close,The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.83%, the GEM index fell 4.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.53%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%.The top three declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-6.07%), computers (-5.74%), and communications (-5.08%).(wind,2019.3.13, Shenwan first-level industry classification)

    Cause Analysis

    Listed companies reduce their holdings or just catalysts.The popularity of A shares in the first two trading days of this week is still high, and the growth stocks are rising rapidly in the context of the foundation of the science and technology board and the abundant stock market. As the market picks up, listed companies have also accelerated the pace of reduction. More than ten listed companies disclosed their plans to reduce their holdings yesterday. Since the beginning of the year, 407 companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have released 759 reduction plans. We believe that,The reduction of listed companies may only be the catalyst for the decline of today's stock market. The excessive rise of some stocks in the early stage led to the separation of their book value from the fundamentals.

    There are pressures on short-term economic fundamentals and stock market liquidity.The European and American economies are still facing the possibility of exceeding expectations. The UK Brexit Agreement was once again rejected by the British Parliament. The domestically announced February import and export and social welfare data were lower than expected, and there was a net outflow in the past four trading days. The issue of external allocation and leverage has not yet been resolved.

    Central European perspective

    The annual market is worthy of attention, but the bull market is not a one-off.The rise in A-shares since the beginning of the year is the result of fundamental and liquidity resonance. However, as the stock market sentiment increased and a large amount of capital flowed in, some concept stocks outperformed the value stocks with fundamental support, which may not be the policy intention. We believe that,Value investments may be late, but they will not be absent.

    "Stable growth" and "anti-risk" will take the top priority in influencing government work in 2019, so as to successfully complete the "stable progress" goal.The short-term adjustment of the stock market, the financial goal is to serve the real economy, rather than become a hindrance to the development of the real economy, slow cattle may be a more ideal outcome. If the market adjusts, or bring investors a better time to enter the market.

     Fund manager's point of view

     [Latest point of view] The GEM has fallen by nearly 5 points. What is the reason?

    Central European Value Discovery Fund Manager Lan Xiaokang

    It takes some time for the economy to stabilize. In this process, liquidity will remain relatively loose. The stock market may not have much downside risk in the context of overall liquidity easing, especially since the large-cap blue-chip stocks have not increased much since the beginning of the year and have played a role in stabilizing the stock market. Earlier growth stocks rose faster, and short-term fluctuations may increase.In the long run, we prefer blue chip stocks. In the future, the performance of blue chip stocks relative to growth stocks may be better.

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