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Minsheng Plus Fund Liu Shiqing: Focus on the matching of fundamentals and valuation
China Securities Journal
Galaxy Securities data shows that the mixed growth of people's livelihood and silver domestic demand, the mixed urbanization of people's livelihood and silver, have achieved good returns since the beginning of this year and the establishment of the fund manager Liu Shiqing rational and calm. In his view, the A-share market has risen sharply this year, and more is a reversal of the sharp drop in the second half of last year. The risk of fluctuations in the market remains. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in corporate fundamentals and to focus on the matching of fundamentals and valuations.
Calmly face market sentiment fluctuations
Since the beginning of 2019, the mainstream indexes of A-shares have risen rapidly, and the market turnover has rebounded rapidly. However, in Liu Shiqing's view, the market in the first two months of this year has soared, and more is the replenishment of the market decline in the second half of 2018. In fact, many companies' fundamentals have not changed much in the short term. The reversal of market sentiment at the beginning of the year amplified the rise and fall of stocks and funds.
When it comes to macroeconomics, Liu Shiqing tends to think that the economic recovery may be faster than expected. On the whole, the spontaneous adjustment of the economy is relatively full, and the imbalance between supply and demand has begun to reverse. "Maybe in the first half of this year, we can see signs of bottoming out in the economy."
On the other hand, the current market has great differences in real estate. Liu Shiqing believes that the real estate industry as a whole is in a relatively stable state, and it is difficult to see the situation of high growth in the past three years. However, some core areas have undergone adjustments over the past period and there is a possibility of recovery this year. Although the pull of the total data of the industry chain may be limited, it is enough to stabilize economic expectations.
As for A shares, he believes that short-term market uncertainty remains. “Single stocks with relatively good performance and relatively reasonable valuations are more likely to hit new highs.” He said that in the future, the overall strategy will be to find a reasonable valuation system and good prospects, or the prosperity is expected to bottom out and the valuation is matched. industry.
Focus on the fundamentals and valuation match
In the fourth quarter of 2018, holding liquor, machinery, brokerage and other industries contributed a lot to the fund's net worth this year. Liu Shiqing said that he has a good grasp of the changes in the relevant industry's prosperity, and he knows more about the competitive barriers of individual stocks and the relative position of the current industry.
Liu Shiqing believes that the liquor industry is also constantly undergoing differentiation and survival of the fittest. There may be no growth in the whole industry as a whole, but it does not prevent excellent companies in the industry from achieving better growth through brand enhancement and channel deepening.
As for the mechanical sector, Liu Shiqing believes that the industry is low in valuation and the economy has continued for many years and is still upward. The valuation of the securities industry is at a historical low, and the prosperity is expected to bottom out.
Overall, Liu Shiqing emphasized that “such a rapid rise is only a replenishment of the irrational decline last year. It is obviously not sustainable. After that, it still depends on the matching of the fundamentals and the valuation system. The market may have large fluctuations at any time during the style conversion process. The key is who can climb out faster after the fall."
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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