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Chen Guangming, general manager of Ruiyuan Fund: This time, I have the best chance to slow down.
“The short-term market hype is coming to an end.”
“The medium- and long-term judgment is the turning point of the year, the turning point of the bear to the cow.”
"Now this time is the most chance to slow down the cattle.. With the improvement in fundamentals and the increasing proportion of foreign capital, there is now an increasing chance of slow cattle. ”
The above is the clear judgment given by Chen Guangming, general manager of Ruiyuan Fund, in his latest speech.
Chen Guangming is the former chairman of Dongzheng Asset Management and personally managed Dongfanghong No. 4. From its establishment in 2009 to the end of 2017, the revenue has nearly 9 times. Chen Guangming, who calls himself a "stock picker", rarely speaks about the short-term market, but Chen Guangming is hard to say about the recent hot market.I hope everyone can be alert.. ”
In addition to the judgment of the future market, Chen Guangming also mentionedOn the hot topics such as real estate, brokerages, and science and technology boards, the three phenomena worth noting are also highlighted.The following is a complete presentation of the finishing speech.
Today's moment is more interesting.
First, the capital market has been difficult from the bear market in 2015 to more than three years now. It is not easy. In the last month or even three weeks, everyone is very excited. No matter how much or less they earn some money, this is also a very happy thing.
Second, all things are aimed at the future. People who invest in it are not easy to sleep well at night, especially in China. It feels like missing three weeks is like missing a century, going straight from winter to summer.
Of course, I came to Sap on Friday. My question and PPT were actually written earlier than Friday (laugh), but some brokers helped me with risk warning work. I will simply talk about it.
Earn two types of money in investment
First of all, I want to share with you, invest and make money, especially in places where liquidity is particularly good. The secondary market basically earns two types of money: the former is to earn money from others, and the other is to make money from companies. .
Others said that the third class earns the money of the mother, earns the money of the mother, and finally the whole society bears, so I think it can also be classified as earning money from other people's homes.
The primary market earns more money from other people, and the most important form of people who make corporate money, such as buying index funds, is not moving, and ultimately there is no transaction, put about 10 years, 20 years, it is related to corporate value. If you redeem the redemption every day, it is not counted. In addition, the ultra-long-term value investment is also the money to make a business.
To earn money from other people's homes, the most typical one is intraday trading. It uses some transactions, and the loss of others is his profit. There are also investors who are similar to the daily limit of the death squad. In their eyes, the stocks are all chips. The back of the chips is human. The most important thing is that after the stock price is smashed up, more people will pick it up and sell it.
As far as I know, people who are doing well are still very good at the handicap. When he pulled the daily limit, he could feel how many people will pick up tomorrow. Therefore, people who are particularly good at doing things must be gifted. Of course, there are also some flaws in the system. The weakness of human nature is to exploit the weakness of human nature.
In fact, many people are somewhere in between. In the process of buying low and selling high, it is difficult to tell whether it is making money from a company or making money from others. The degree is not the same, the longer the investors may be, the higher the proportion of money earned by the company, the shorter the short-term, the higher the proportion of money earned by others.
However, from the perspective of earning corporate money, in the long run, only a small number of outstanding companies have created most of the added value.
In fact, it is the same in China, but there is no one in the country to do statistics. There is a statistics overseas, which will be discussed later.
Short-term hype is coming to an end
Time is the most important variable and the touchstone.
If the time is long, it can't be faked. It can't be fake. For those who are speculating as chips, wealth will be transferred after a full handicap.
In this market, the characteristics of wealth transfer are quite obvious. I can't help but say a few things about this. We still hope that this market is characterized by wealth creation as the core feature rather than wealth transfer.
I originally wanted to pour some water on everyone, and later CITIC helped me. Now it is said in the "Xihong Persimmon Riches", which one is going to close down, going bankrupt, you must hurry to buy, or you can't buy it. (laugh)
In fact, as long as you make money and legal compliance, there is nothing wrong with it. But one problem is thatOne of the core functions of the capital market is resource allocation. The pricing deviation is too large, which is not conducive to the allocation of social resources..
To put it bluntly, a group of rotten people took a pile of money in their hands. A group of good, diligent and capable entrepreneurs could not get the money. This capital market is definitely not good, and it will have side effects on society.
Second, the hype is too heavy, the last chicken feathers, and the last injured are small and medium investors.
My opinion is that the short-term market speculation is coming to an end, it does not mean that it will fall immediately, and the popularity will soon be scattered.
general,My speech rarely involves short-term markets.Because the short-term market is not clear, there are too many things, and when you finish, you will hit your face. But the short-term market is really hot, sometimes I don’t think it’s evasive, but alsoI hope everyone can be alert..
Share your thoughts with you:
first of allFund face.
First, in fact, the position of the organization is still relatively heavy. The public offering has always been a lot of positions, and the private placements have increased rapidly. Basically, the power has been insufficient, or the capacity is insufficient.
Second, Northbound funds have begun to slow down because they are relatively long-term.
Third, as far as I can understand,The new funds are not as much as everyone thinks.Researchers have been staring at the number of new accounts,I will not be announced last week.. Last week, it was announced that it was about 210,000 to 310,000. Last week's data was not expected to be announced.
The previous margin balance was announced, and it was stopped. Now the number of new accounts has also stopped. It is estimated that I don’t want to mislead everyone.How many leeks came in, and everyone raised prices.
I understand from some brokerage channels that the number of accounts opened is definitely rising, but the range is limited. The channels are different, some may be weaker and some stronger, but the whole is not as imagined or expected, I think it is very normal.
The stock market crash in 2015 is still vivid. After three years, so many new forces have been trained? New leeks grow so fast? I doubt it.
At the time of stock trading in 2015, at least people came to the top in 2007 and cultivated for seven years. The rounding up is almost an intergenerational period. Now it is only three years, three years rounding off, and half-generation is not. From this perspective, this may not be appropriate. Excessive expectations.
Followed by technical aspectsNot to mention this, people who generally look at technology are better than me, and now they are a little stressed.
the first,From a short-term perspective, the benefits are basically fulfilled, such as deleveraging into stable leverage, marginal improvement of monetary policy, marginal improvement of Sino-US relations, and the fall of taxation, and some substantive issues have been fulfilled. What else is behind? I still can't see it now.
second,Everyone's expectations for the currency are too high, because the release of water in January is very powerful, so everyone is very lenient about the currency YY (imagination).
I believe that the big easing of money is a false proposition. De-leverage itself is an inherent economic demand. Our debt ratio has risen to the current level, and then it has been released. As a rational government, this is something that should not be done.
Moreover, in January, more than 4 trillion yuan of social financing, more than 3 trillion loans, a large part of which is in the off-balance sheet, some of which are bills, and part of the reason, when the previous loan demand was fierce, basically It is 3322. Now, the real demand for actual loans is not large.
Speaking of these is actually not what I am best at. What I am best at is stock selection. So just make a reminder, don't blame if you are wrong, especially the first part. If you are short-term, if you hinder the making of money, don't blame me, just a word.
As for the macroscopic things, the variables are too big, and it is easy to make mistakes. Why is the current loan demand not the actual demand? In fact, from the demand side, the demand is not very large.
The most demanding is the local government. Now there are only special debts. The second is the large state-owned enterprises such as central enterprises, which are still administratively reducing leverage. These subjects, the bank dare to lend, think that the future is not a big problem, but the demand is held down. The demand for the remaining real estate has also been kept down.
In addition, private enterprises, good enterprises have little demand, and poor corporate banks do not dare to lend. Therefore, the actual demand is relatively weak. In the next few quarters or in the next few months, the data may naturally slow down, and you don't have to expect too much.
The third, now everyone saysThe third quarter must see the bottomOr maybe the third quarter may bottom out, I can only sayto be observed.
Since the currency cannot be put more, the infrastructure will certainly not develop too much. Others may still go down. You said that the third quarter must be bottomed out. I can only say that it may not be. I also hope to see the bottom.
At this time, I hope that everyone will give you a little wake up. (In theory), the policy does not support the hype, and there are precedents for the stock market in 2015. After all, this government is still very concerned about the capital market.
There are a lot of people yy is not a report of CITIC is ordered to bearish. No, I don't know.
If there is no such thing, I will respect them even more. Because brokerage analysts are not only responsible for the company's business interests, but also have responsibility for the market. The spirit of independence is too lacking in our market.
I prefer not to, but to look at it spontaneously. I found that there are countless people in the circle of friends who are beginning to poke them, saying how many people have sold out and withdrawing their orders. I feel that this market absolutely needs such a spirit. I need such people and I hope everyone will support them.
Secondly, I hope that the market will maintain some rationality, not obvious interest orientation, and it is a personal interest orientation. It may be a bit of a loss in the short term. But if it is to be used as a bargaining chip, there is no performance support, isn’t it a Ponzi scheme? ? Who is injured in the end? Can such a market be a good market?
Some people are bearish and are very worthy of encouragement and appreciation. If you just go all the way up, and finally become a chicken feather, it is not very good for everyone.
This year is the year of bear turning
The short-term market is not the focus, and the basic judgment in the medium term is the turning year, the turning point of the bear-to-bovine.
I'mLong-term strategy to see more China's secondary market in the futureThe most important core reason isStatic estimate in the bottom area. Although it has risen by 20%, the overall situation is still in the bottom area, but it is already noisy if it rises by 20%.
Second, China's growth will still be there. It is estimated to be lower than 6%, but low-speed growth does not mean that there is no bull market. The growth of the United States has never exceeded 10%, but people have risen for ten years.
Third, the profit of the industrial chain is unbalanced. For example, finance and real estate account for 40% of the total, and with more than 50% of real estate, there is a possibility of adjustment.
Fourth, it has already been fulfilled, and there is room for tax cuts and reductions.
Fifth, foreign capital continues to buy,The continued purchase of foreign capital is very important and has caused very significant changes to the market ecology.. Regarding the phenomenon of foreign investment, I don’t think it can be described too much.
In the next few years, the trend of market ecological evolution will continue. Everyone here should attach great importance to the process of continuous foreign investment.
Finally, the economic transformation is increasingly dependent on the capital market. Because 2025, the policy can not support enterprises by subsidies, and hopes to support technological innovation through the capital market. This is correct. I hope the capital market is better. This is also true.
This time, I have the best chance to slow down the cow.
Now the US stocks are really expensive, and the better Coca-Cola has not grown, so it is still 20 or 30 times higher than the valuation. From this perspective, why do foreigners continue to buy Maotai, Maotai at least has growth, the price-earnings ratio is not higher than them, cash flow is not worse than you.
In this way, our Chinese market is still ok. If 3000 points is the top, then there is no need to be optimistic, and we should not look at it for a long time. But the current structure and the phenomena that are manifested are completely different.
In the medium and long term, this time is the best chance to slow down. If we exclude the recent speculation, from the perspective of the fundamentals and the current high proportion of foreign capital, there is a growing chance of slow cattle. It used to be slow, and now there is a chance to slow down.
When the economic situation was good in the past, most of the companies in all industries were very good. Now it is definitely not a good estimate for the first three years. The first three may be okay, the boss is definitely better. But the boss feels sad because the growth rate has come down, but it is still much better than others.
The other tail companies are all clear, and now the listed companies that are already at the end are also clear. From a fundamental perspective, only a few companies are in the process of centralization.
In addition, from the perspective of investor structure, those good companies have been bought a lot by foreigners, and now foreigners do not follow the hype, especially in Hong Kong, the same A, H shares,Chinese people's insuranceA-shares have risen so much, Hong Kong stocks are only one-fifth of yours.CITIC Construction InvestmentNot only 1/5.
Even if it is followed, CITIC Jiantou Hong Kong stocks rose from more than three to more than eight, but on Friday, A shares did not limit, Hong Kong has directly fell to 10%, running faster than you, this is typical feature.
I think at this stage, in theory, from the perspective of fundamentals and capital structure, there is a greater chance of slowing down the cattle than before. But whether it will slow down the cows or whether it has a relationship with the policy, the key is how the leaders deal with some things.
Brokers can't make money like banks
Slightly talk about the issue of financial supply side reform.
First of all, what everyone is talking about is efficiency and efficiency. But I think efficiency is one thing, and one aspect is cost.
The current financial assets have already accounted for such a high proportion, the cost is still so high, and the burden on the entity is very heavy. This is reflected in the relatively high profits of the financial industry, especially banks.
The profit of the brokers is not acceptable. The brokerages now have a trading volume of 1 trillion yuan. The commission of the third day, in addition to the commission of the transaction, the other numbers are drawn. In addition to the head, the investment bank basically does not make money.
Asset management In addition to earning money in the head, ten people basically do not make money, can profits support high market value? The margin financing and securities lending has already lost a lot. Now it has not been turned over, but it has not been accrued for bad debts. Even if it is solved, the earned money is 6%. Is the stock up 100% related to you? If you fall more than 50%, you will lose money.
Banks make a lot of money, which is five or six times the price-earnings ratio, brokers will never earn so much. The market value comparison is now 1/3. According to this speculation, it will be 1/2 immediately, but the profit estimate is 20 times worse.
I fully understand that this is called a long-term drought and nectar. It is a technical rebound. After the fall, the hot money is definitely to buy those companies that have no organization. There is no selling pressure, and you can get the chips under the game and earn money from others. We have been doing it for many years and still don't understand this truth? I am only talking about this from a fundamental point of view.
But in the future, foreigners are buying the best companies, and even slowly, the best companies will buy them. Anyway, buying a good company, a cheaper company in the world, and sometimes even getting into the world, because the global stocks such as US stocks are quite expensive, you can't buy such a company in the US, you have to buy your company, you can buy it. It will be more expensive than imagined.
The pressure behind the real estate market is very large
The long-term hidden dangers of fundamentals are also mentioned a lot, demographic dividends, financial cycles, and external pressures.
China is pragmatic, its performance is too bad, and there will be adjustments. Real estate industry chain, I think the next stage should be the issue of substantive demand. To put it bluntly, after the house price is so expensive, you can't afford it.
In terms of stocks, the price of stocks is high enough to be in this position.Common peopleI really can't afford it. Therefore, the market is at its peak. In this sense, the pressure behind it will be very large.
India and Vietnam are not so easy to catch up with China.
Previously, it was a reminder of the risks. The fundamentals of the economy were not so optimistic, but in the long run, valuations have basically reflected such expectations.
At present, the market does not have the economic foundation to become a big bull market immediately, and there is no such policy basis, but in the long run, it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic in this position.
Structural opportunities exist especially. Because although the demographic dividend is not good, the quality dividend of the population or the engineer bonus is still there.
We have more than 7 million college students and even nearly 100 million graduate students. Such a huge group of people are making innovations, have huge markets, and are unified markets, and the effects are very large.
Although India's market looks big, it is not uniform, and although the population is large, the real effective population is very low. At the time of Women's Day, only 20% of women participated in India, we have more than 60%, and there are too many in India. People are not involved in labor. We have studied it and India is also very difficult.
ASEAN and Vietnam are slightly better, but Vietnam also has problems:
First, the scale is small.
Second, there is not much infrastructure, and the issue of private property rights is also more troublesome.
Third, there are insufficient reserves, and there are still problems with the upgrading of talents.
Vietnam's own market is relatively small. If it is not because of the possibility of the United States forcibly separating the market, the labor cost in Vietnam is now more than 2,000, and China is more than 4,000. The difference is not much affected.
Vietnam has many other disadvantages. In addition, we are still upgrading. The so-called artificial intelligence is an efficiency improvement. It may replace those low-end labor forces. In this sense, India and Vietnam do not necessarily have More opportunities to catch up with us.
Entrepreneurs responded that 10% or even 20% of wages in Vietnam are growing every year. We have almost the same salary as ours in a few years, and their productivity is much lower than ours. Now the tax may be lower than ours.
Many of our innovations are now at the forefront of the world. We can't say that they have already reached it, but they are basically doing the same. It is possible that they will achieve L4. In the future, we may be able to achieve L3, which is getting closer and closer.
For example, autopilot, I have just talked with the CEO of **Auto Group two days ago. Their investment is also very big, and most importantly, China has a huge market, the same level of technology, basically we are sure It will be made in China, which is a national security issue.
Now, the management elements are also beginning to change. Relatively speaking, many people used to rely on resources, rely on resources, and rely on capital. Now we must make strategies, do mechanisms, and train talents. This kind of enterprise can take a long-term perspective, and we also I saw a group of excellent companies doing this.
Determinants of long-term returns:Return on capital
The current low valuations basically reflect the far-reaching effects of the macro economy.
The future is a structural opportunity, the differentiation of different companies is intensifying, research and investment are more specialized, and it is necessary to choose Alpha (excess return) among different enterprises.
I have always defined myself as a “artisan in stock selection”. Why is stock selection particularly important?
From 1980 to 2007, the longest bull market in the modern history of the United States has probably increased nine times.
But there are about 5,000 of them (because there are more than 6,000, there may be more than one), 1/5 of the companies are seriously losing money, and 1/5 of the companies have losses, and 75% of the companies add up. The return is approximately equal to zero. The market value growth rate is 0, not the market value is zero.
In other words, this time has increased nine times, but 75% of the companies add up and did not rise. Only the remaining 25% of the companies have obtained all the new market capitalization, and about 80% of the new market capitalization was created by 10% of the companies.
Therefore, after you have been pulling for a long time, you will know that the company you chose has decided your victory or defeat, instead of the fact that this wave of market can still rise by 10%. If the stock falls, you can still copy the bottom.
The big bull market is coming, I don't know.
The core of value investing is to buy good goods cheaply. In the simplest terms, it is to find the best business, buy at a reasonable or even underestimated price, let the profit run, and let the compound interest grow, unless the business is worse or estimated. The value is too expensive.
What is a good business? It is a deep moat, continuous growth, excellent management, and the ultimate determinant of long-term stock returns is the return on capital of the company.
In the long run, the return on a stock is hard to exceed the return on its own business.
If a business returns 6% in 40 years, you take this stock for 40 years, and the return rate is basically 6%. Whether it is 0.5 times PB or 1 times PB buy, it is basically equal to 6%, even if it was bought at a very cheap price.
On the contrary, if the company's return on capital in the past 20 years is 18%, that is, using very expensive prices to buy, and holding 20 to 30 years, your return rate is basically 18%, which is also a good foreign investment. The company's core reasons.
I want to remind everyone, don't feel that a good company is very expensive, and has not fallen. Time is a friend of a good company, an enemy of mediocrity! The driving force for long-term gains is profit growth, not valuation changes.
Editor in charge: Robot RF13015
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