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    End of stocking before the holiday, palm oil waits for the market to pick up

    2019-02-11 09:31:31

    Zhongtou Yuanbang

    In the last week before the Spring Festival, the domestic palm oil spot price was gradually stopped, the market transaction was light, and the stocking was over before the holiday. As of January 30, the national average price of 24 degrees palm oil was 4,757 yuan / ton, up 65 yuan / ton from the previous week's 4,692 yuan / ton, the spot spot premiums basically closed. In terms of inventory, the national palm oil port inventory was 640,000 tons, an increase of about 190,000 tons from the 442,000 tons in the same period of last month, compared with 657,000 tons in the same period last year, and the 5-year average inventory was 662,000 tons.

     The picture shows the annual inventory of the national palm oil port inventory

    The picture shows the annual inventory of the national palm oil port inventory

    Domestic palm oil prices rebounded from the bottom of the previous period to the current price level, which is about 10%. The probability that the price of oil will break below the new low in the later period is small. There are two main logics for judging that oil prices are difficult to continue at a new low: First, the growth rate of soybean meal consumption will be lower than the growth rate of oil consumption will bring strong support to the oil market (because the current oilseed crush is mainly driven by demand for protein raw materials, That is, the oilseeds such as pressed soybean meal are mainly for obtaining protein raw materials. The high demand for protein raw materials leads to excess oil squeezed, which suppresses the rise of oil prices. When the growth rate of scorpion consumption is lower than the growth rate of oil consumption, it will bring The growth rate of oil supply will decrease, and the supply pressure of the oil and fat market will be reduced. Therefore, the low growth rate of consumption of oysters will help to support oil prices. Second, this year's weather factors may cause the growth rate of palm oil production to decline, and the overall supply pressure of oil will be reduced.

    Throughout the current market, the above two logics have not changed. As the African piglets become more and more intense, the reduction of soybean meal consumption caused by the decline of pig stocks in the later period cannot be fully compensated by the increase in soybean meal consumption caused by the increase in egg breeding. The decline in the growth rate of domestic peptone consumption in the whole year of 2019 is almost inevitable, and the growth rate of oil consumption continues to be stable. Under the two relatives, the logic that the price of oil in the later period is stronger than the price of antimony still holds. Of course, the specific rhythm needs to be considered in detail.

    Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, many spot trading companies took a holiday in advance, resulting in a gradual decrease in the market price of palm oil and a return to light. According to the experience of previous years, the spot market will fully recover. After the Lantern Festival, the market will gradually pick up in the first week after the Spring Festival.

    (Author: CIC Yuanbang)

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    Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei

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