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    The peripheral market "spring breeze" warms agricultural products futures

    2019-03-14 04:10:30

    China Securities Journal Zhang Lijing

    Since March, the rise in industrial futures has turned weaker, while the trend of agricultural futures has turned stronger. The reason is that the industry believes that the external factors such as the reversal of the pig cycle, the surge in agricultural products in the stock market and the external disk boost have led the current round of agricultural products to stop falling and rebound. In the later period, the fundamental turning point of white sugar is expected to be strong, or there is a clear long position. Quotes.

    Differentiation of agricultural product assets

    Recently, domestic agricultural product assets have strengthened, with stocks performing best, followed by theme funds, agricultural futures have stabilized, and individual varieties have seen a more pronounced rebound.

    Straight flushStatistics show that since the beginning of this year, the A-share farming sector has increased by more than 70%, and the agricultural product processing sector has increased by 41.56% over the same period. In the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.37%. The performance of the agricultural sector clearly outperformed the broader market. Against the background of strong stock market sectors, the agricultural theme funds performed well overall, and the average earnings performance was second only to the Internet financial index.

    In addition, under the above background, agricultural products futures in the commodity market have turned weaker and stronger. Since March, the Wenhua Financial and Agricultural Products Index has risen by 0.82%, reversing the decline in February. In terms of specific varieties, corn and soybean meal showed a downward trend, while cotton, sugar and rapeseed oil futures showed a small rebound.

    Wu Ling, head of Zheshang Futures Agricultural Products Research, told the China Securities Journal that since March, the trend of agricultural futures has turned stronger. From a macro perspective, the pig cycle has been affected by the relevant epidemic, and the recent stock market Stronger, the relevant stocks in the agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry sector rose a lot, while the agricultural products futures were in the bottom position as a whole, and it was easier to have upward momentum under the stimulation of Lido.

    “At the end of February, pork prices in various regions have risen simultaneously. It is expected that the inflection point of the pig cycle is expected to arrive in advance, boosting the CPI into the first half of the inverted V-shaped trend in 2019. Assuming that pork prices continue to rise by 30% at the current level, it is expected that the CPI is expected to touch in the second quarter. 2.7%-2.8% high, but it will not form a constraint on monetary policy." Zhang Yu, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, believes that on the one hand, farmers enter the final capacity retirement period. The ability to breed sows has accelerated and is now close to the low level in 2015. On the other hand, the willingness of farmers to follow up the bar is low, especially in the first half of the year. The first reason is that the related epidemic continues to be plagued and the farmers are not confident enough. It is the gradual warming of the climate, and the increase in mosquitoes and flies adds to the difficulty of epidemic prevention.

    Peripheral power is the dominant factor

    Vegetable oil is undoubtedly a multi-star variety of recent commodities. Analysts pointed out that the company is currently worried about the uncertainty of the policy, the increase in the price of reluctance to sell, the willingness to hedge is not strong, and the price of vegetable oil futures has soared. Wu Ling believes that the rapeseed rape is affected by the policy side, and the long-term supply concerns have caused a rise in the market. However, it is still in the stage of speculation, and the domestic inventory is higher. In the later period, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the substantial impact of the policy side on the import of Canadian cuisine products.

    In terms of cotton and sugar, the recent rise in the price of soft commodities in the outer disk has become an important support for the strengthening of the intraday market. According to statistics, as of yesterday, the outer plate of raw sugar futures has increased by 3.7% this year, in addition to the US cotton futures rose 3.23% over the same period. Analysts believe that the recent rebound in crude oil prices continues to boost raw sugar futures prices, and strong market demand for ethanol has also boosted sugar price increases. From the domestic fundamentals, the February production and sales data has been released, the national sales sugar rate increased year-on-year, and the production and sales data is biased. However, considering the current low season of consumption, the subsequent phased supply pressure still exists. Continue to focus on the progress of the press and sales.

    From the perspective of the cotton market, Zheshang Futures Research believes that ICE cotton futures have recently risen to a three-month high, as investors expect the trading environment to be optimistic, betting on cotton futures, and the weak dollar is also supporting the market. Domestically, cotton enterprises began to replenish their warehouses, and their demand gradually recovered. However, domestic cotton industry and commercial inventories are relatively high, and import pressure is relatively high. The overall fundamental pressure is still large.

    It is worth mentioning that in this round of market, the stock market's agricultural product sector's gains have clearly differentiated. From the perspective of specific varieties,Nanning Sugar IndustryThis year, the cumulative increase of 72.39%, while Zheng sugar futures rose only 8.58%. In this regard, Wu Ling analyzed that sugar is now at the end of the bear market, the market is expected to be strong, but the current demand is weak, the stage supply pressure is still in the short term, the contract is still under pressure in the near future.

    White sugar futures opportunities for much attention

    From the perspective of investment opportunities in the later period, Wu Ling said that he is more optimistic about the market outlook of white sugar. In 2019/2020, the world entered the production reduction cycle. If there is weather matching, the production rate will increase or decrease, and the far-month contract has a strong upward momentum. In addition, the oil-to-oil ratio is also worthy of attention. This year's decline in feed consumption has reduced the demand for mites, which is conducive to domestic oil destocking.

    Zheshang SecuritiesAnalyst Liang Wei believes that in 2019, the sugar price will be inflection point. According to analysis, in 2019, Southeast Asia or the current drought, affecting India, Thailand and other major producing countries in the new season sugar cane growth, while crude oil, soybean prices still affect Brazil's sugar production, and the sugar market after two years bear market, expected to reduce production is strong, expected 2019 The annual decline in sugarcane planting area and production is a high probability event, and the global sugar market supply is loose. ISO expects a supply gap of about 2 million tons in the 2019/2020 crop season. It is expected that the price of sugar will step out of the bottom area at the beginning of the new crop season and enter the ascending channel.

    In cotton, USDA cotton's latest monthly supply and demand report (global) shows that in March, the US Department of Agriculture raised the global stocks, production and ending stocks of 2018/2019 cotton to 81.14 million bales, 117.89 million bales and 76.09 million bales, respectively; Cotton imports, consumption and exports were 42.18 million bales, 123.59 million bales and 42.18 million bales, respectively.

    "We believe that the March forecast is bearish for the spot price of cotton, the price of ICE cotton is increasing, and the export sales of US cotton are not as expected." Yang Ruixia and Wei Jianxu, analysts of Guotou Anxin Futures, said that domestically, according to China Cotton Information Network Data, as of the beginning of March, the national cotton planting area in 4019 was 44.065 million mu, down 2.3% from 2018. However, cotton planting area should remain stable or slightly increased in 2018/2019. On the demand side, in the recent Jiangsu survey, the operating rate of textile enterprises was generally maintained at over 90%, and the yarn products were mostly pure cotton products. The original cotton stocks of the research enterprises were maintained at around one and a half months, and the yarn stocks were all about two months. . The spot price of cotton yarn was generally lowered by 500 yuan/ton-1000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of imported cotton from domestic arrivals rose steadily. In the short-term, domestic cotton prices have strong resistance, and the domestic cotton inventory structure will be further adjusted downward. The intention and area of ​​cotton planting in 2019/2020 will be clear, and the upward trend will require the driving force under the new structure.

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    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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