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Supply tends to be loose, thermal coal price continues to be weak
China Securities Journal
After hitting a new high of 621.8 yuan/ton on March 4, the thermal coal futures oscillated lower. The main 1905 contract fell to 589.2 yuan/ton yesterday, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5%. Analysts said that due to the rapid increase in the previous period, the price of coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has been lowered recently, and the inventory of power plants is still at a high level, dragging down the recent price of thermal coal. However, there are still structural tensions in the coal supply side, which may limit the downside of the price. In the short term, the weak pattern of thermal coal prices is difficult to change.
“Because the previous period has risen too fast, the price of coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has been lowered recently. In addition, the supply side has increased expectations after March 15th, and the enthusiasm of downstream users has declined. It is mainly wait-and-see. Therefore, since last week, thermal coal futures The main 1905 contract obviously weakened and returned to the shock zone again," said Wu Yong, an analyst at Hongye Futures.
In the northern port, due to the excessive increase in coal prices in the previous period, the downstream will not accept strong demand for high-priced coal, and the traders' quotations have slightly moved down. The current Q5500 large-cap coal quotations are mostly concentrated around 640 yuan/ton. Last week, the average port throughput of Qinhuangdao Port was 531,400 tons, and the railway transfer volume was 560,700 tons. As of March 11, the port stock was 5.68 million tons, an increase of 4.22% compared with the previous week; other ports, Caofeidian Port The inventory was 4.332 million tons, and the investment of SDIC Jingtang Port was 1.82 million tons.Tianjin harborThe inventory is 1.36 million tons. The overall inventory of the four ports was 13.192 million tons, an increase of 0.19% on a week-on-week basis.
As for the daily consumption of power plants, as the temperature rose, the demand for electricity for residents began to fall, and the coal consumption of power plants began to weaken. In terms of power plant inventory, there is a certain decline compared to the high level, but it still maintains a high level, which is much higher than the same period of the previous year. As of March 11, the total inventory of the six major power plants was 16.34 million tons. At the same time, the available days of coal are 22.18 days.
The supply side still has structural concerns
However, from a fundamental point of view, Baocheng Futures analyst Wang Xiaotong believes: "At present, the staged top of the thermal coal price has been formed. However, there are still structural tensions in the coal supply, which will limit the quality coal price correction to a certain extent. Space."
Wang Xiaotong said that since the beginning of this year, some ports in China have imposed restrictions on imported coal from Australia, and the clearance time for Australian coal has been extended to about 40 days. At the beginning of March, some ports were notified that during the working day, the Australian coal unloading will be restricted, and “radioactive testing” will be carried out for every 500 tons of coal. The customs clearance time or further extension will affect the quantity of coal imports.
Customs data showed that raw coal imports in February were 17.64 million tons, down 15.6% year-on-year. Affected by this, the power plant will have to change the direction of procurement and increase the procurement demand for domestic trade coal. Due to the strong demand for high-quality coal procurement from power plants and the high quality coal in Australia, the reduction in coal supply in Australia will increase the structural tension in port coal supply. However, from the perspective of the two major high-quality coal producing areas in China, the Yulin area in Shaanxi has been shut down due to large-scale production since January, and the production of raw coal has been greatly reduced. In Shanxi, due to strict safety inspections, the overall supply of high-quality coal is relatively tight. Therefore, the port coal supply still has structural concerns.
Wang Xiaotong said that the spot supply of coal tends to be loose, and the focus of short-term thermal coal prices will continue to move downward. However, the coal supply still has structural concerns, and the current price difference is at a low level. It is expected that the price decline will be less than the current price.
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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