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“Ground food” is concentrated in the market.
Futures dailyLu Shuangmei
After the listing of new grain in October 2018, with the overall harvesting period postponed, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, coupled with factors such as downstream deep processing capacity expansion, corn prices continued to climb. Since the winter of last year, the overall temperature in the northeast region has been higher than that in the same period of the previous year. The storage difficulty of “ground grain” has been increasing. Especially after the Spring Festival in 2019, the corn in the producing area has been sold in a concentrated manner. Falling.
At present, how is the progress of grain sales for farmers in the Northeast, and what is the sales and distribution of “land grain”, and how long will the grain sales period last? What is the mentality of farmers, traders and downstream deep processing enterprises? What do market participants think about corn and corn starch? How to solve the price risk? In order to clarify these issues, from the end of February to the beginning of March, the Futures Daily reporter followed the Everbright Futures and Zhuo Chuang Information jointly organized the Northeast China “Ground Food” and starch production research team to go deep into Jilin Changchun, Siping, Songyuan, Yushu and Heilongjiang Suihua. Conduct an investigation.
The storage of “ground grain” is more difficult, and farmers will concentrate on selling grain after the holiday.
During the investigation period, it was at the peak of the listing of Heilongjiang and Jilin “Ground Food”. As the temperature rises, the difficulty of storing the “ground grain” is increasing. The farmers who missed the best time for grain sales in the early stage are eager to sell grain in the context of poor storage conditions.
In the investigation, the Futures Daily reporter learned that in the surplus foods of Siping, Fuyu and Yushu, the proportion of “Ziziliang” and “Ground Food” accounted for about 50% each, and Changling County of Songyuan City and Qianguoerluosu of Songyuan City. The autonomous county is the region with the highest surplus grain during the investigation. The local corn surplus is about 60%, which is also the concentrated area of “ground grain”. The rest of the grain in the west of Heilongjiang is also mainly based on “ground grain”.
A person in charge of a state-owned grain depot in Siping City told the Futures Daily that in December 2017, there were basically no “ground grain” in Jilin and Liaoning, and in December 2018, there were still a lot of surplus in these places.
Liu Yuzhang, head of Songyuan Longsheng Food Purchase and Sale Co., Ltd. told reporters that as of the end of February, there were about 60% of the surplus food in Gan'an County. "At present, farmers do not want to save food any more. The enthusiasm for selling grain is very high. On the one hand, the temperature rises, and the 'land grain' is not easy to keep; on the other hand, it is immediately ploughed, and farmers need to use fertilizers and pesticides." Liu Yuzhang said Due to the reduction of local new season corn production, and the quotation of corn purchases from deep processing enterprises around October-November last year, farmers have higher psychological expectations for corn prices after the new corn is listed. Corn prices began to fall slowly in early December 2018, but farmers were still more optimistic about future price movements and did not sell corn in time. After the Spring Festival in 2019, the weather turned warmer and the purchase price of corn fell rapidly. Most of the local farmers passively accelerated the sale of grain due to lack of storage conditions.
The reporter also found that the peasants' corn sales in the northeastern region are highly motivated, and the grain delivery vehicles in front of most corn deep processing enterprises have become "long". Everbright FuturesAgricultural products(000061) Research Director Wang Na said that there are two main reasons for the release of post-holiday grain pressure: First, the weather in Northeast China is heating up this year, increasing the difficulty of storing “ground grain” and boosting the rhythm of selling grain; With the centralized listing of “Ground Grains”, the price of corn fell, further exacerbating the panic sales of farmers. It is understood that after the Spring Festival in 2019, the purchase price of corn in the northern port fell rapidly. As of March 8, the corn purchase price in Jilin Changchun fell to 1,600 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the beginning of January.
Traders buy bottom-up, increase enthusiasm
As corn prices fall, the enthusiasm of traders to participate in acquisitions increases. Some traders believe that corn is listed on the market after the Spring Festival, and farmers are panicking sales. The absolute price of corn is lower than the price of Chen corn at the beginning of the auction last year. At this time, it can enter the market and dip the cost of corn inventory. A person in charge of a state-owned grain depot in Siping City told reporters that they are waiting for an opportunity to enter the market in the near future, and are preparing to do more than 50,000 tons of collection and storage.
Wang Mingyu, the head of the Mingyu Corn Planting Professional Cooperative in Lanxi County, Suihua City, told reporters that he had been collecting food since October last year and has lost money. He has lost more than 200,000 yuan now. Currently they have 8,000 tons of corn stocks, and now feel the price. It is acceptable that he is prepared to store another 2,000 tons of corn stock.
The Changling County Permanent Grain Depot has a drying tower and also conducts a part of the corn trade. According to the relevant person in charge of the grain depot, they rented two state-owned grain depots, plus one own trade point, and three points to collect food at the same time. The storage capacity is 110,000 tons, and the grain is 27,000 tons before the Spring Festival. The current grain collection is 1,500 tons/day. "At present, our operation idea is that farmers sell grain at a low price and establish 50,000-70,000 tons of stocks, waiting for the price to rebound later. The low price of grain can lower the average price of our purchase. Below the cost price, we will not Sales, we believe that the national policy should protect the price of corn, and may increase the starting price in the later period."
In addition, the reporter learned that the current inventory of corn in the hands of traders is 60% lower than the average of the same period last year. There is still much room for the acquisition of the market. A trader with many years of experience in the Songyuan area said that during the rapid rise of corn prices in the autumn of 2018, farmers were reluctant to sell, and companies bought prices, but the number of acquisitions was limited. Before the Spring Festival, the price of corn fell, and some enterprises bought a small amount. After the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders entering the market increased, and the corn purchase gradually increased.
Yushu Jinxia Food Storage Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yushu Jinxia) is a private grain warehouse with a storage capacity of about 80,000 tons. According to the relevant person in charge of the company, the corn trade is not good in the past two years. Made more than 30,000 tons of trade, the trade volume was significantly reduced compared to previous years. Years ago, the company basically had no grain, and it was the inventory made after the year. The current inventory is about 7,000 tons - 10,000 tons, accounting for about 1/10 of the storage capacity. "I can't see the market outlook. The current acquisition is actually blind. But with reference to the reserve price of last year's auction, I think the current price can be collected. If the country clearly does not expand corn imports, we will consider further strengthening the acquisition."
Deep processing enterprises have sufficient inventory to control the pace of acquisition
The Futures Daily reporter visited five corn deep processing enterprises in western Jilin and western Heilongjiang. In addition to one of the companies that opened the acquisition of corn, the other four deep processing enterprises are controlling the purchase volume.
The reporter learned that corn deep processing enterprises control acquisition mainly for two reasons: First, sufficient corn reserves. The reporter found that most of the corn deep processing enterprises are filled with corn tidal grains, and the inventory of deep processing enterprises is generally at a high level. Individual enterprises will also rent scattered storage points around them because of their limited storage capacity. Second, after the Spring Festival, the weather warmed up, and the pressure on the company's own drying tidal grain increased. Considering that it may continue to heat up afterwards, if there is too much risk of mold damage in the recent acquisition of too much tidal grain, many companies control the rhythm acquisition.
Songyuan Jiaji Biochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Cargill Biochemical Co., Ltd.) mainly produces starch sugar. The starch production is about 140,000 tons/year, the annual corn processing capacity is 800,000 tons, and the storage capacity is about 300,000 tons. At present, the company's corn stocks are 260,000-270,000 tons, of which 60,000 tons of tidal foods are in urgent need of drying, while the enterprises' stocks in the same period last year were only over 100,000 tons. Cargill biochemical corn buyer Qi Yuanbo told reporters that the company queued more than 100 vehicles for food sales every day, but due to inventory pressure, it only received 45-46 car food per day, equivalent to 2,000 tons of corn, which was supplied daily and is now stocked to In May and June, the next batch of corn auctions can be linked.
The inventory of corn deep processing enterprises in Heilongjiang is also high. In the survey, the reporter learned that at present, most of Heilongjiang deep processing enterprises are in stock for 70-80 days, and state-owned deep processing enterprises are basically full of construction, while private deep processing enterprises are operating at around 70%. For example, the three factories under the Heilongjiang Xiangyu Group currently use more than 6,500 tons of corn per day, and the overall inventory of the three factories can be used after May.
The overall sales progress is slow, short-term corn and starch are difficult to say optimistic
Although the enthusiasm of farmers and traders in the northeastern region increased after the holiday, due to the weak downstream demand and the high inventory of corn deep processing enterprises, the current corn sales in Northeast China are still slow. According to data released by the National Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, as of March 5, 2019, the main producing areas had acquired a total of 77.04 million tons of corn, a decrease of 4.6 million tons. According to the statistics of the Granary Network, as of March 3, 2019, the sales progress of corn farmers in the three provinces of Northeast China was 72%, which was 8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The sales progress of corn in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia was 74%, 65%, 80% and 73%, respectively, which was 9%, 10%, 10% and 6% slower than the same period of last year.
In the survey, many market participants surveyed believe that corn prices will continue to run at low levels in March. The person in charge of a state-owned grain bank in Siping City said that due to poor feed demand, the procurement of feed enterprises declined, and both the market buyers and sellers maintained a wait-and-see attitude. According to the current situation of surplus grain, the pressure of concentrated sales of “ground grain” in April will be Gradually ease.
Zhang Xiaopeng, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang Information Corn Starch Industry, said that with the enthusiasm of the trade link entering the market, the downside of corn prices will narrow. It is expected that corn prices will fluctuate at a low level in March, and policy information and guidance should be concerned in April.
Affected by corn, the price trend of downstream corn starch is also optimistic. Zhang Xiaopeng said that the corn starch market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere due to the emotional transmission of corn prices. “At present, the procurement strategy of corn starch downstream terminals and traders has changed, and more on-demand procurement, the change of raw materials has become the focus of the market. In the current high inventory, high startup and low consumption, the market pessimism is more serious. After corn prices stabilize, corn starch will go out of an independent market, because the demand for corn starch has not been affected by factors such as African swine fever and Sino-US trade friction, and the supply of corn starch is relatively stable.
Avoiding price fluctuations, all entities in the industry chain actively seek safe haven channels
From the continuous increase of corn prices in the autumn of last year to the continuous decline after the winter, farmers, traders and deep processing enterprises in the production area have once again deeply felt the importance of risk management and actively sought appropriate tools to avoid the risk of price fluctuations.
Liu Yuzhang himself is also a peasant. He has planted more than 100 squats. He has heard about futures, “insurance + futures” when he is doing trade. When he knows that there are futures industry practitioners in the research team, he can’t wait to ask “insurance + futures”. Things. “I heard futures from a feed company boss in the south. The feed company boss told me that companies can use futures tools to manage the risk of price volatility. For example, corn traders have stocks in their hands and worry that corn prices will fall in advance. In the futures market, corn futures are sold for hedging. When the price of corn falls, the profit in the futures market can offset the losses in the spot market.” Liu Yuzhang said that he was very interested in futures.
“Later, a classmate of Sinochem Group introduced me to 'insurance + futures', which can guarantee the price of food and also protect the income of farmers. I feel that this thing is very good. We have seen the food for so many years and have seen the price increase. The pain of falling, I have the opportunity to give my home, as well as the land insurance of other farmers in our cooperatives, I sincerely hope that this model will be widely used in our village." Liu Yuzhang said excitedly.
Heilongjiang Jinxiang Biochemical also has long-term cooperative planting cooperatives, and it is highly hoped that “insurance + futures” will benefit the farmers around them. At present, due to the limited size of “insurance + futures”, farmers who cooperate with the company have no opportunity to participate. In order to encourage the surrounding people to grow corn, the enterprise is currently adopting the method of purchasing the farmer's reserve price, and guaranteeing the reserve price according to the planting cost of the farmer. If the market price is lower than the reserve price, the enterprise will purchase the reserve price if the market price Above the guaranteed price, the market price is acquired.
The person in charge told the reporter that under the current model, the price risk of farmers is essentially transferred to the enterprise. As the company lacks risk management professionals, the scale of future cooperation will face bottlenecks. Through the "insurance + futures" model, we will effectively solve the problems of protecting farmers' income and protecting farmers' enthusiasm for planting, and better achieve multi-win.
Heilongjiang Jinxiang Biochemical expressed concern about the development of future deep processing enterprises. He believes that deep processing enterprises may reshuffle in 2020. After waiting for the country to go to stock, the supply and demand of corn can not be balanced. In the future, deep processing enterprises want to survive, not only have the capital and storage capacity, but also the risk management. To this end, Heilongjiang Jinxiang Biochemistry began to learn and try to use futures tools to hedge. According to the person in charge, this year the company is trying to use the strategy of selling corn starch futures to lock in the processing profit and avoid the loss of corn starch price in the future. "In the future, after the auction of corn for the temporary storage, the supply of corn in the market may be tight. Enterprises will consider establishing a 'virtual inventory' in the futures market, that is, a certain amount of reserve stocks will be built on the futures market, by buying a certain amount in the futures market. The forward contract replaces the actual purchase and inventory in some spot markets, which not only saves the inventory cost, but also avoids the risk of rising raw material prices. It can be said that the future use of futures tools for risk management is a general trend and the core competitiveness of the company's survival and development. ."He says.
Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei
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