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    The vegetable oil is difficult to support. The oil is returned to the original shape.

    2019-03-14 09:28:28

    WeChat public number: Melya

    The trend of the three major oils has always been consistent, and there is a sense of synergy between the two.However, since last week, there has been a clear differentiation in the trend of the three.

    Vegetable oil began to rise sharply in March and broke through the upper edge of the range. Soybean oil and palm oil only rose for a few days in the rising atmosphere of vegetable oil, and began to fluctuate.

     With the Canadian rapeseed import problem speculation cooling, the late oil trend is expected to return to the original fundamental logic. As of today's close, vegetable oil led the decline, reversing the recent half-over gains, soybean oil fell back to the low near the previous, palm oil even fell below the previous low.

    With the Canadian rapeseed import problem speculation cooling, the late oil trend is expected to return to the original fundamental logic. As of today's close, vegetable oil led the decline, reversing the recent half-over gains, soybean oil fell back to the low near the previous, palm oil even fell below the previous low.

     The vegetable oil is difficult to support, and the oil is returned to the original shape.

    Vegetable oil

    The increase in this vegetable oil was mainly due to the stimulation of the news. On the evening of February 28th, it was reported that China Customs cancelled the registration of imported rapeseed from Canada's largest grain processor, Richardson International Ltd. The list of approved exporters to China announced on the website of the General Administration of Customs of China on March 1 shows that the notes in Richardson International Ltd.“The rapeseed export registration has been cancelled” and the news has been confirmed and fermentation continues.

    On March 6, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Wei said that China Customs has repeatedly detected dangerous pests in rapeseed imported from Canada. The quarantine of rapeseed exports from one company is particularly serious. China Customs has made a decision to suspend imports in accordance with laws, regulations and international practices, which is completely reasonable, reasonable and legal. On March 7, the customs clearance website of the General Administration of Customs issued a warning notice on strengthening the quarantine of Canadian canola. The circular pointed out that the General Administration of Customs has cancelled the registration of Canada and its related enterprises with serious problems, suspended the import of rapeseed, and required all customs to strengthen the quarantine of imported Canadian canola.

    China's rapeseed market is highly dependent on Canada. According to the statistics of the Grain and Oil Information Center, China imported 4.72 million tons of rapeseed in 2018, 94% of which came from Canada; imported vegetable oil 1.3 million tons, of which 89% came from Canada; and imported rapeseed meal 1.32 million tons, 98% of which came from Canada. Imported rapeseed oil and direct imported vegetable oil total about 3.3 million tons, accounting for more than half of domestic consumption.Therefore, after the above-mentioned prohibition message appeared, it caused the market to worry about the supply gap and promoted the sharp increase in the price of vegetable oil and rapeseed.

     However, after the impulse, I calmly analyzed that the suspension of rapeseed imports was only for one company. Other grain processing enterprises and consignors in Canada were not affected, and the impact was relatively limited. Yesterday, the vegetable oil dropped sharply, which also showed signs of cooling. If the import of rapeseed products is completely stopped, the impact will be more permanent and serious. Although there is only one suspension company, the strict quarantine of imported rapeseed from Canada is comprehensive and continuous. The warning notice has been valid until it is lifted. Whether it will be completely banned is still uncertain. We can continue to pay attention to this matter.

    However, after the impulse, I calmly analyzed that the suspension of rapeseed imports was only for one company. Other grain processing enterprises and consignors in Canada were not affected, and the impact was relatively limited. Yesterday, the vegetable oil dropped sharply, which also showed signs of cooling. If the import of rapeseed products is completely stopped, the impact will be more permanent and serious. Although there is only one suspension company, the strict quarantine of imported rapeseed from Canada is comprehensive and continuous. The warning notice has been valid until it is lifted. Whether it will be completely banned is still uncertain. We can continue to pay attention to this matter.

    In addition, it is understood that Canadian rapeseed, vegetable oil and other products are restricted in imports, and the sharp increase in domestic vegetable oil prices has stimulated traders to find new sources of imports. Market rumors, last week, domestic companies purchased 50,000 tons of EU non-rotating vegetable oil. At present, the EU non-transfer vegetable oil CNF price is 900 US dollars / ton, equivalent to the port tax price of 7260 yuan / ton, higher than the Zheng Shang Institute vegetable oil plate price, but because of the non-transfer vegetable oil has a certain premium, the price is still relatively attractive.

    At present, although the domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased, the vegetable oil import volume has remained at a high level, and the coastal vegetable oil stocks have increased slightly. The amount of arrival in March is expected to be 420,000 tons. As of March 1, the total inventory of vegetable oil in the coastal areas was about 540,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous month. The stock of vegetable oil in East China was about 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month. The stock of vegetable oil in the southeast coastal areas was 100,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month. Simultaneously,After the increase of vegetable oil, the expansion of the price difference of soybean oil will not be conducive to the demand for vegetable oil.

    Soybean oil, palm oil

    Soybean oil and palm oil have not continued to rise strongly due to their own fundamental problems. At present, it is still in the off-season of oil demand, traders pick up goods slowly, and soybean oil stocks continue to rise.

    Data show that on March 11th, the stock of soybean oil in major oil plants nationwide was 1.37 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 50,000 tons on a month-on-month basis, an increase of 260,000 tons from the average of 1.11 million tons in the same period of the previous three years. The amount of imported soybeans will increase in March, and the amount of soybean crush will increase.Soyoil stocks are expected to rise slowly in the later period.

     Image from National Grain and Oil Information Center

    Image from National Grain and Oil Information Center

    Palm oil was hit by an unexpected rise in MPOB's reported inventory, and prices fell under pressure. The report showed that the output of crude palm oil in February was 1.54 million tons, down 11.1% from the previous month and up 15.02% from the same period of last year; the export volume was 1.32 million tons, down 21.38% from the previous month and up 6.28% from the same period of last year; the inventory was 3.05 million tons, up 1.34% from the previous month. It increased by 22.89% year-on-year. The output of this report is lower than expected.However, the export performance was not as expected, resulting in a high inventory level and the overall report was empty.

    Although the export decline in February has seasonal expectations, the magnitude is large to make the market unexpected. According to data released by shipping survey company ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1-10, 2019 were 435,000 tons, up 10.7% from 393,000 tons in the same period in February. Another shipping survey company, SGS Malaysia, said Malaysia's palm oil exports were 412,000 tons from March 1-10, up 5.0% from the 392,000 tons in the same period in February. However, the export has not improved as the market wants to make palm oil prices fall.

     Image from National Grain and Oil Information Center

    Image from National Grain and Oil Information Center

    After the long-term downturn in oils and fats, investors generally have expectations for rising oils and have been waiting for the opportunity to pick up the oil. Some investors have turned this vegetable oil up and saw the market start signal.However, in view of the fact that the current lipid fundamentals are generally loose, and the volume of vegetable oil is relatively small among the three major oils, it is difficult to drive the entire oil market by this policy alone.

    Three major oil supply and demand balance projections

    The latest estimate of the oil supply and demand balance sheet in March shows that the gap does not consider the inventory of the previous year. In 2018/19, the new supply of soybean oil in China was 16.25 million tons, a decrease of 960,000 tons from the previous year, of which soybean oil production was 15.65 million tons. Soybean oil imports were 600,000 tons. It is estimated that the total annual demand for soybean oil will be 16.45 million tons.The annual domestic soybean oil supply and demand gap is 200,000 tons, and the previous year's estimated balance is 150,000 tons.

    It is estimated that the new supply of rapeseed oil in China will be 7.39 million tons in 2018/19, of which the output of rapeseed oil is 6.19 million tons and the import volume is 1.2 million tons. The annual domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is expected to be 8.62 million tons.The gap between supply and demand of rapeseed oil for the year was 1.23 million tons, and the estimated shortage of 1.51 million tons in the previous year.

    It is estimated that the new supply of palm oil in China in 2018/19 will be 6.2 million tons, or 6.2 million tons. It is estimated that the annual domestic consumption of palm oil is 6.23 million tons.The annual palm oil supply and demand gap is 30,000 tons, and the previous year is expected to have a surplus of 20,000 tons.

    In summary, the supply of oil in the market is still tight, and the road to increase is still worthy of investors' expectations. Among them, the overall vegetable oil gap is large, which may be the strongest among the three oils. The supply and demand of soybean oil and palm oil are relatively tight, and palm oil is expected to still be delayed.

    Hot searchVegetable oil Soybean oil Palm oil

    Editor in charge: Dou Xiaowei

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