Export up BDI down commodity wind direction labeling "hitting"

1comment 2019-04-15 01:36:23 source:China Securities Journal Just do it next week! Steady!

Faced with the upward export and BDI downwards in the first quarter, analysts pointed out that in the current international trade environment, China's domestic demand stability is an important support for the strong commodity prices, but the weaker global economy still limits the room for commodity rebound. At present, although industrial products are strong but have peaks, agricultural products are weak but can be seen at the end.

As importantMacroeconomicsIndicators, China's import and export data, has attracted the attention of investors. Under the support of China's huge supply and demand volume, fluctuations in import and export data may lead to changes in the next phase of investment winds. This indicator is especially important in the commodity market. butBrokerPeople believe that, relatively speaking, the trend of BDI is more forward-looking and reference value.

Faced with the upward export and BDI downwards in the first quarter, analysts pointed out that in the current international trade environment, China's domestic demand stability is an important support for the strong commodity prices, but the weaker global economy still limits the room for commodity rebound. At the moment,industryAlthough the product is strong, but there is a top,Agricultural products(Quotes000061,Medical stockAlthough it is weak, it can be seen at the end.

  Commodity prices remain resilient

Recently, the General Administration of Customs announced the "reports" of China's import and export trade in the first quarter of 2019. The data shows that the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the first quarter of this year was 7.01 trillion yuan.Renminbi, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3.77 trillion yuan, up 6.7%; imports were 3.24 trillion yuan, up 0.3%; trade surplus was 529.67 billion yuan, up 75.2%.

Commodities, first quartercrudewithnatural gasImports of bulk commodities, iron ore,coal,SoyImports have decreased. Data show that China's first-quarter refined oil imports increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 8.72 million tons; crude oil imports increased by 8.2% to 121 million tons; natural gas imports increased by 17.8% to 24.27 million tons. In addition, China's coal and lignite imports in the first quarter decreased by 1.8% to 74.63 million tons; soybean imports decreased by 14.4% year-on-year to 16.75 million tons; iron ore and concentrate imports decreased by 3.5% to 261 million tons.

"In the first quarter of 2019, China's import and export growth rate fluctuated greatly. On the one hand, the impact of the base effect caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival on the growth rate of imports and exports in March is still on the other hand; on the other hand, the improvement of the external trade environment since March has also promoted exports. A big factor in growth."One German futuresMacro analyst Xiao Lina believes.

Xiao Lina analysis, among the main imported commodities, soybeans, crude oil, steel,copperImports of timber, automobiles and pulp decreased year-on-year. Meanwhile, the prices of soybeans and automobiles decreased significantly, dragging the growth of imports. The import of iron ore, crude oil and steel was lower than the previous month, which failed to boost the growth rate of imports. .

In terms of commodity prices, Wenhua Finance and Statistics show that in the first quarter, domestic commodity prices rose by 3.59%, among them,Iron ore futuresThe price index rose by 25.43%, reflecting the global soybean priceBean II FuturesThe price fell by 6.23%, and the Shanghai copper futures price rose by 1.04%.Rebar futuresThe increase was 8.95%.

According to relevant research data of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, soybeans, iron ore and crude oil are the largest varieties of “China factors” in the international commodity market, and are also the varieties most affected by China's international market. China's imports are in international soybeans, naturalrubber, logs, wool,cottonWaiting for the market to occupy a weight that cannot be underestimated.

According to industry analysts, it can be seen from the above-mentioned major bulk commodity import data that even in the current unfavorable international trade environment, the demand for major commodities in China remains stable, and some commodity demand even increases, and prices appear. rise. This confirms from the sideChina's economyAnd the resilience of commodity prices.

  Everbright Securities(Quotes601788,Medical stockThe macro study believes that in the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream demand can continue to stabilize, even recover, and the rhythm of monetary policy. Large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction will also support domestic demand to a certain extent.

  Export and BDI who can represent demand

It is worth noting that the data in March showed that in this month, China's foreign trade import and export was 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6%, which effectively boosted the overall growth rate of foreign trade in the first quarter. Of this total, exports were 1.34 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 21.3%; imports were 1.12 trillion yuan, down 1.8%.

Exports increased sharply in March, which is a speculation as to whether overseas demand has already improved. However, the freight rate trend, which is more reference value than the trade data, does not give a consistent signal. According to statistics from Wenhua Finance, the BDI index in the first quarter fell by 45.79%.

The CICC Fixed Income Research Group believes that the trend of freight rates is more forward-looking and reference value than trade data. The rapid downside BDI index at the beginning of the year means that global trade is facing shrinking and external demand is weak, and China began to increase its purchases in the US in April (such asporkChina’s pork imports from the United States reached a record high last week, and will continue to squeeze China’s surplus.

“After the abnormal growth of exports in March, exports will return to the main line of decline in external demand. The weak external demand will be the main line leading the trade pattern this year. This time, the global demand decline is closely related to China, and we want to see the recovery. We must see China's leading recovery.” The agency analyzed, in addition, the Spring Festival misplacement will also lead to an increase in imports and exports in March, the most comparable is currently in March 2016, the 2016 Spring Festival on February 8, 2015 Spring Festival in On February 19, this year is very similar to the situation. It can be seen that the import and export jumped in March 2016, but the import and export volume dropped significantly in April, so it can be expected that the import and export will fall sharply in April, especially the export growth rate.

The research team also pointed out that from the downward slope of the quarterly import and export growth rate, the rate of decline in import growth since the third quarter of 2018 is significantly faster than that of exports, and looking back to 2016-2018, domesticSupply side reformDeclining production supply, but strong demand, resulting in faster imports than exports, China's surplus compression, pulling the global economy; this year, in turn, supply-side reforms relaxed production, demand is weak, inventory continues to accumulate, and later into the destocking cycle, For trade, destocking means that exports are increasing, imports are decreasing, China's surplus is expanding, and it is driven by the global economy.

This is consistent with the more resilient logic of commodity demand in the context of China's demand this year, that is, China's demand is strong to support global demand – commodities are strong and volatile. On the other hand, if China's demand weakens, it will inevitably overlap with the expectation of weaker global demand, thus bringing about a significant suppression of commodity prices.

  Restricted product rebound, agricultural products have more opportunities

From the global macro analysis,Melya FuturesRelated research suggests that China's GDP is in the bottom of the volatility cycle, and Europe and the United States are in the top region. As time goes by, the economic trends in Europe and the United States are even less optimistic. China has played a "stabilizer" role in global economic growth; but combined with the current economic performance in Europe and the United States, it is clear that China is "difficult to support."

"Over the first five roundsFederal Reserve rate hikeAfter the end, US inflation will show a strong downward trend. With the sharp slowdown in the Fed’s rate hike this year, US inflation has deteriorated significantly in the later period.EURUnder the negative interest rate policy, the district can only barely maintain its financial heat, and it may become a source of global economic risks in the later period. "The agency analyzed.

Xiao Lina said that under the economic downturn in Europe and Japan, the high growth rate of exports is still unsustainable. And inDomestic economyAfter the supply and demand stabilized, the improvement of domestic demand was the main support of the economy in the second quarter. In March, the medium and long-term loan growth of enterprises, together with the tax reduction policy to improve corporate profits, continued to drive investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. The economic data was fully improved in March, and the short-term rise in industrial prices continued to support. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the economic downturn of the major external economies, the decline of the domestic aggregate demand hub, the slowdown in the growth of high-tech products, and the weak rebound in trade improvement, which limits the rebound in commodity prices. "With the improvement of economic data for one month alone, it is difficult to determine that the mid- and long-term economic turning point is already in place. It is necessary to follow the data and market tests and maintain a cautiously optimistic view on financial assets."

Wenhua Finance and Statistics show that in the first quarter, the industrial product futures index rose by 5.54%.Agricultural product futuresThe index fell slightly by 0.19%; but since the second quarter, both have risen more than 2%. According to the analysis of the future of Melya Futures, it seems that it is a good choice to choose some valuable varieties in the agricultural products to bargain.

Keyword reading:commodity Agricultural products BDI

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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