Social welfare data exceeds expectations

1comment 2019-04-15 01:37:34 source:China Securities Journal Author:Wang Zhuying Just do it next week! Steady!

Recently, the market's expected March financial data has been released, and both money supply and demand have improved beyond expectations. After the announcement,Treasury futuresDrastically falling back. The industry believes that market risk appetite will continue to rise, and it will be beneficial to equity assets and bet on assets.Bond MarketNear the oxtail.

  Data exceeds expectations

ChinaCentral bankThe latest financial data released in March shows that the scale of social financing in March increased by 280 billionRenminbiIt is expected to be 185 billion yuan, with a previous value of 703 billion yuan. China's new RMB loans in March reached RMB 1,690 billion, with an expected RMB 1,250 billion and a previous value of RMB 885.80 billion. In March, the M2 money supply ratio was 8.6%, a 13-month high, 8.2% expected, and the previous value was 8.0%. M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 2.0%.

On the whole, the first quarter of the social integration increased by 8.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, compared with the same period last year, the corporate financing environment has been greatly improved. Among them, new RMB loans,Corporate bondFinancing and local government special debts increased the most year-on-year: new RMB loans increased by 1.44 trillion yuan compared with the first quarter of 2018; local government special bonds increased by 462.2 billion yuan year-on-year; corporate bond financing increased by 366.9 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of 2018 .

Based on historical experience in 2005, 2009, 2012 and 2016, wide credit isChina's economyThe leading indicators of stabilization are one to three quarters ahead.Star Stone InvestmentPortfolio investmentManager Yuan Guangping believes that in combination with the recent stabilization of various data such as inflation, consumption, exports, and construction,MacroeconomicsIt is expected to bottom out in the second quarter.

  China Merchants Bank(Quotes600036,Medical stockResearch institutecapital marketLiu Dongliang, director of the institute, said that in the first quarter, the social welfare exceeded expectations significantly. On the one hand, it showed that the previous stimulus policy was effective, on the other hand, it indicated that the total demand has bottomed out. It is expected that the macroeconomic stabilization time is expected to advance to the second quarter. Expectations for the outlook will also continue to improve.

"The official implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction may lead to the profit bottom before the economic bottom: According to past historical experience, the bottom line of the company's profit and the bottom of the economy are basically synchronized, but in the current round of profit down cycle, the expected decrease The tax reduction policy is mainly concentrated in the second quarter, which may make the profit bottom appear before the economic bottom." Yuan Guangping believes.

  Debt maintenance

Last Friday, after the release of data such as exports and social welfare, Treasury futures fell sharply. At the close of trading last Friday, the 10-year bond contract T1906 fell 0.21% to close at 96.645 yuan. The 5-year Treasury futures main contract TF1906 fell 0.05% throughout the day, closing at 98.855 yuan.

Liu Dongliang said that in this context, monetary policy will focus on the economy and it is unlikely that more vigorous relaxation measures will be introduced. However, in the case of phased liquidity, the possibility of RRR reduction cannot be ruled out. The policy focus will focus on the structure and duration of the social investment, how to allocate more credit resources to small and micro enterprises, private and medium- and long-term financing, will continue to be the force of policy.

  Haitong Securities(Quotes600837,Medical stock)Jiang ChaoThe team believes that the March CPI,PPI rose year on year, since AprilporkVegetable prices remain high, oil prices, coal prices, and steel prices are rising. It is expected that inflation will continue to rise in April, the currency will be difficult to loosen again, and interest rates will be hindered;Treasury yieldThe spread between the yields of Chinese government bonds and the yield of Chinese government bonds has fallen to zero. Although the US has suspended interest rate hikes, it is still too early to cut interest rates, which means that there is limited room for further short-term domestic shortfall. From the long-term perspective, the current Sino-US spread is around 70 BP, and the spread center has been at 110 BP in the past decade, which means that the spread is likely to continue to be greatly reduced. On the whole, there will be more negative factors in the future.Bond marketAdjustments are still in progress.

Liu Dongliang expects that market risk appetite will continue to rise, and it is beneficial to equity assets and bear the interest in securing assets. The bond market is close to the oxtail, and the upward risk of yield is greater than the downside risk.Stock marketIn the short term, it is still expected to be promoted, but whether the market can go further in the second quarter, it still needs to be verified by corporate profits.

Keyword reading:Treasury futures

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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