Weakness in the stainless steel market

1comment 2019-04-15 01:38:32 source:China Securities Journal Author:Ma Shuang The second beauty energy comes!

Since the beginning of March, the nickel has fluctuated at a high level in the past month, and the Shanghai nickel main contract has also fluctuated widely in the range of 99,000-104,000 yuan/ton. Analysts said that the release of high-nickel-iron production capacity at home and abroad, high social stocks of stainless steel, and lack of terminal procurement all have a negative impact on the trend of nickel prices. In addition, the weak stainless steel market will drag down the steel price, steel mills profit margins may be forced to gradually release the raw material prices and other factors, so it is expected that the nickel price may go out of the trend in the second quarter.

  The price of the future has fallen back

After several unsuccessful attempts, in the second half of last week, the nickel price fell under pressure. The main force of Shanghai nickel fell from 104,000 yuan/ton to 101,000 yuan/ton, and the nickel price also fell to 13,000.Dollar/ ton a line.

  Guotou Anxin FuturesNon-ferrous group analysts Che Hongyun and Xin Weihua said that the release of high-nickel iron production capacity at home and abroad is still the main pressure in the market. At the same time, high social stocks in stainless steel and weak terminal procurement are also negative for raw nickel demand. At the same time, the domestic and international refined nickel is in the process of destocking. The domestic stainless steel production is stable, and the demand for raw nickel is still at a high level. These factors also make it difficult to open the nickel price correction space smoothly.

“After entering April, the domestic nickel spot import losses have narrowed significantly. After the opening of the nickel spot import window, the import of nickel in Russia increased significantly. The stainless steel market has not seen any improvement since entering the market, and the steel mill is currently putting pressure on it.Raw materialStrong willingness. "Che Hongyun, Xin Weihua said.

  Ruida FuturesAnalysts said that Shanghai nickel fell sharply last Friday due to weaker downstream stainless steel prices. At the same time, according to the market, due to the recent opening of the window, the spot market supply is slightly loose.

  The second quarter tends to go down

From a fundamental point of view, from the nickel-iron end, domestic nickel-iron production in March continued to expand to 25% to 47,767 metal tons, the highest value in the past three years, and the total output of nickel-iron in January-March was about 13.25. Ten thousand tons, an increase of more than 11.45%. The domestic high-nickel iron plant has a good profit margin, and there is still a new capacity plan to be released later. In May, the remaining 3 sets of submerged arc furnaces in Xinhai Technology are expected to reach full production, and domestic high-nickel iron production is expected to increase steadily. In terms of imports, China's imports of ferronickel from Indonesia in January-February were also in a high position, with a year-on-year increase of more than 113.8%, reaching 296,000 tons of physical tons. In the first quarter, Qingshan took the lead in launching nearly 20,000 tons of metal capacity in Indonesia. After entering the second quarter, Qingshan, Delong and Jinchuan are expected to have nearly 100,000 metal tons of ferronickel capacity. Indonesia's annual ferronic iron output increase or reach 150,000 tons of metal. At present, the Ministry of Commerce has restricted the flow of Indonesian stainless steel into the domestic market, and the expansion of stainless steel capacity in the later period may be limited. In the latter part of Indonesia, it is more likely that it will continue to export ferronickel to the country. From the perspective of both ferronickel production and imports, the increase will continue to be reflected in the second quarter, which will also become an important factor limiting the rebound in nickel prices.

From the perspective of stainless steel, after the end of March, the overall consumption of the terminal market showed signs of fatigue. After the Spring Festival, social stocks rose significantly, mainly due to the transfer of steel mill stocks to the society. The increase was mainly reflected in the 300 series and the 200 series. As of mid-March, social inventories continued to show growth and hit a new high in the past two years. The inventory of Foshan in Wuxi reached 460,000 tons, an increase of nearly 30,000 tons. After entering April, the market is generally more pessimistic. The output of steel mills remains high, social stocks remain at a high level, and steel mills have accumulated a considerable portion of their stocks, and sales pressures remain. At present, steel mills have begun to switch to raw materials such as scrap stainless steel. Maintaining a wait-and-see attitude on the price of nickel-iron, nickel and nickel will put pressure on domestic nickel-iron and electrolytic nickel prices. Therefore, the hot recovery of the stainless steel market and the destocking process are still the main focus of the market.

“Overall, the current refined nickel stocks in the two cities are still falling, and the output of steel mills is still stable in April, and the corresponding high-nickel iron is also at a high level. The short-term high price of nickel continues to fluctuate and runs more. The release of ferronickel production is accelerating, and the weak stainless steel market will drag down the steel price. After the steel mill's profit margin turns negative, the raw material price will gradually release. The nickel price is expected to fall out of the trend in the second quarter. Arrange empty orders." Che Hongyun, Xin Weihua said.

Ruida Futures analysts said that the short-term nickel price trend is still weak, with support for the main contract around 100,000 yuan / ton. Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai Nickel 1906 contract can consider short-selling around 102,000 yuan / ton.

Keyword reading:nickel

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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