Thermal coal prices are expected to remain high

1comment 2019-04-15 01:40:12 source:China Securities Journal Author:Ma Shuang Just do it next week! Steady!

Since April,Thermal coal futuresThere has been a steady rise, the main 1905 contract hit a maximum of 627.6 yuan / ton, and then contracted the increase, the latest closed at 621 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 4.62%. The industry believes that under the condition that the safety supervision and environmental protection high-pressure superimposed coal transportation channel is blocked, the thermal coal price is expected to maintain the medium-high operation.

“The recent increase in coal prices mainly includes the following reasons: First, the overall demand level is high, and the power plant inventory focus shifts downwards. The next stage of power plants may start to replenish the warehouse in advance to drive up the market coal price; second,coalThe main transport channel entered the maintenance period, affecting an average daily reduction of 150,000 tons, the supply in the coastal areas contracted, and the market bullish sentiment further heated up. Third, the main contract and forward contracts of thermal coal futures all showed a small shock. It has a certain impact on the spot price. "Cinda Securities coal industry analyst Zuo Qianming, Wang Zhimin, Zhou Jie said that the currentMacroeconomicsThe pessimistic expectation has been repaired. The sales volume, electricity consumption, freight volume and other indicators of the excavator have shown a good trend. The latest M2 and export data in March also exceeded expectations. In the low season of coal demand, the power plant is expected to be replenished in advance. Prices have risen further.

According to data provided by Cinda Securities, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal area last week was 668,000 tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.4%, an increase of 0.8 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; April 12 The daily coal consumption of the six major power plants was 693,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 2.3%, an increase of 17,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%, the available days was 22.2 days, a decrease of 0.6 days on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 1.4. day. The latest phase of the key power plants consumes 3.67 million tons of coal per day, down 40,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.1%; an increase of 15.0 million tons, an increase of 4.3%.

In terms of inventory, last week's important domestic ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Guotou Jingtang Port) increased slightly. The average inventory level in the week was 12.36 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.5%; Last Saturday, the average coal inventory of large power plants was 15.429 million tons, down 146,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.9%, an increase of 1.447 million tons, an increase of 10.3%. As of April 12, the inventory of the six major power plants fell below 15.4 million tons, the lowest since the end of January; the latest national key power plant inventory was 69.33 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.9%, an increase of 652.0 Ten thousand tons, an increase of 10.4%. As of April 11, the port throughput of Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 63,000 tons to 475,000 tons.

The above analysts said that overall, in the off-season demand for thermal coal exceeded expectations, power plant inventory fell or will enter the replenishment stage, the supply side safety supervision under the high pressure under the superimposed coal transportation channel maintenance is blocked, the price is expected to maintain a medium high position .

Keyword reading:Thermal coal

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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