U.S. re-emerges in Venezuela Can the energy and chemical market be detonated?

1comment 2019-04-15 08:59:42 source:Futures daily Author:Li Guolei Just do it next week! Steady!

  Recently, the United States has been continually exercising sanctions against Venezuela, and the situation in Venezuela has been faltering.On April 5, US Vice President Penns announced sanctions against ships owned or operated by 34 Venezuelan state-owned oil companies (PDVSA). In addition, one from VenezuelacrudeOil tankers to Cuba and two companies associated with the ship were also included in the sanctions list.Last Friday (April 12), US Treasury Secretary Steven Munuchin announced sanctions against three LiberiasShippingThe company, an Italian company and nine oil tankers under these companies, identified them as exporting Venezuela crude oil to Cuba.

  Xiao Bian learned that the United States has imposed several rounds of sanctions on the oil and finance sector in Venezuela this year, and the sanctions have been escalating.according toCITIC FuturesYang Jiaming, a researcher in energy and chemical industry, said that on January 23, Venezuelan President Maduro announced that he would break diplomatic relations with the United States. On January 28, the United States announced the freezing of the Venezuelan National Oil Company (PDVSA).DollarAccount, on March 10, the United States informed India to stop importing Venezuelan crude oil, and the entire power outage in Venezuela in March three times, greatly affecting the shipment of Jose Ferrianal (JoseTermianal, crude oil exports accounted for 73% of Venezuela's total exports).

  As sanctions continue to increase, the international community’s concerns about US military intervention in Venezuela have intensified.Last week, foreign media reported that senior US military personnel admitted for the first time that if US President Trump made a decision, the US military is ready to military intervention in Venezuela.Although the specific details of the military intervention plan have not been announced, it is the first time that the US military has admitted that it is ready for military intervention in Venezuela.

  What is the desire of the United States to exert pressure on Venezuela one after another?What impact will it have on the energy and chemical market?And listen to Xiaobian one by one!

  Venezuela's crude oil output in March hit a 16-year low, but exports unexpectedly stabilized

  Under the pressure of the United States, the situation in Venezuela became more and more turbulent. In March, a large-scale power outage occurred in succession. As a result, Venezuela's crude oil output accelerated in March, hitting a 16-year low.Xiaobian query OPEC monthly report found that second-hand data show that OPEC crude oil output in March was 30.22 million barrels / day, down by 534,000 barrels / day from February, a record low of more than four years, of which the daily output of Venezuelan crude oil plummeted 289,000 Barrels/days, to 732,000 barrels per day, the lowest since 2003, when a major strike across the country hit the Venezuelan oil industry.

  The United States has made another move to Venezuela. The US military has for the first time admitted to preparing to use force. Can the energy and chemical industry be detonated?

  Xiao Bian noted that Venezuela’s contribution to OPEC’s production cuts was second only to “Big Brother” Saudi Arabia in March, but the same behavior was followed by different motives. The purpose of Saudi Arabia’s production cuts was to push up oil prices and achieve fiscal balance. Venezuela is involuntarily reducing production, which is a last resort. At present, its output is less than half of the output specified in the production reduction agreement. Even if there is no production reduction agreement, the downward trend of Venezuela's crude oil production is difficult to reverse.

  In fact, Venezuela has abundant reserves of crude oil, ranking first in the world. Its crude oil output exceeded 3 million barrels per day in the 1990s. It is the second largest oil producer in OPEC, but it has been affected by US sanctions in recent years. The lack of management, superimposed chaos, crude oil production continued to decline, not only surpassed by Iraq, Iran and other countries, the output in March this year is even lower than Algeria and Libya, has fallen to tenth in the OPEC oil producing countries.From the perspective of net export revenue share, the proportion of net export income of Venezuelan crude oil in the total share of OPEC crude oil export revenue has also been decreasing, accounting for less than 5% in 2017.

  The United States has made another move to Venezuela. The US military has for the first time admitted to preparing to use force. Can the energy and chemical industry be detonated?

  The United States has made another move to Venezuela. The US military has for the first time admitted to preparing to use force. Can the energy and chemical industry be detonated?

  However, Venezuela’s oil exports were unexpectedly stable in March.Foreign media data showed that despite the impact of large-scale power outages, Venezuela's crude oil exports in March were 980,000 barrels per day, only slightly lower than the 990,000 barrels per day in February.During a large-scale power outage, PDVSA was able to offset delays caused by power outages by loading large vessels to Asia. Goods exported to India, China and Singapore accounted for 74% of total exports in March, compared with nearly 70% in February. .Before the sanctions, the United States was the largest buyer of crude oil in Venezuela.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has made it clear that since mid-March, the US crude oil imported from Venezuela has fallen to zero.

  In this regard, Yang Jiaming explained that the output of Venezuela plummeted in March, the actual export is definitely a decline, but some of the exports have become floating positions, and there are a large number of floating warehouses in Singapore, so the decline is not obvious from the export data.

  Although the sanctions have caused a significant decline in the production of crude oil in Venezuela, they have not had a significant impact on their crude oil exports. Recently, the United States has continued to increase the sanctions against Venezuela in order to promote a sharp decline in the export of crude oil in Venezuela, thus cutting off its income source, which is intended to be paid.

  When the asphalt demand starts, the raw materials may be cut off.

  Venezuela's Marai crude oil is the main raw material for the processing of bitumen in domestic refineries. Yang Jiaming said that due to US sanctions, the possibility of discontinuous supply of bituminous raw materials at the start of the peak season of asphalt demand has increased significantly.He pointed out that whenever there is news of US sanctions against Venezuela, the price of asphalt will fluctuate greatly.In view of the two-month time difference between the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Hong Kong, the actual impact of crude oil shipments is concentrated in March, and the high probability of domestic arrival in Hong Kong will be affected in May. Up to now, Marui crude oil arrived in Hong Kong in March with a volume of 550,000 tons. The chain fell by 68%, down 51% year-on-year.

  In Yang Jiaming’s view, the United States urged all countries that traded with Venezuela to stop trading. The debt-servicing obligation prompted China to become the sole exporter of Venezuela’s Marai crude oil, and the probability of domestic arrival increased. Therefore, the domestic arrival of Venezuela’s crude oil in Venezuela increased significantly in April. 1.75 million tons, Venezuela's Marai crude oil arrivals increased, but the limited amount of underwater water is limited, mainly due to the shortage of heavy resources on a global scale.It should be noted that the decline in the supply of crude oil in Venezuela is due to sanctions, but the main reason is Venezuela's own installation problems. Therefore, when the two places arrive in Hong Kong for two months, the above events are concentrated in March, so the domestic arrival in May is more than that. Less is not difficult to understand.

  He believes that on April 12, the United States announced sanctions against Venezuelan crude oil transport vessels, which has limited impact on domestic arrivals. According to shipping data, it can be seen that the domestic crude oil import vessels are mostly PETROCHINA and China Unicom (UNIPEC). ), ChinaOil and a small number of Vitol traders, that is to say, the sanctions ship has limited impact on the domestic arrival of Marai crude oil in Hong Kong. The decrease in domestic arrival is mainly due to the impact of fire and power outages in Venezuela's domestic installations. The United States will impose comprehensive sanctions on Venezuela on April 28, when crude oil exports may be more affected.

  According to him, domestic asphalt production in March increased by 613,100 tons from February, an increase of 33% from the previous month. Such a high production growth rate and slower inventory accumulation prove that the demand is actually very good. Once the output growth rate declines, the demand remains. , then going to inventory is a high probability event.“There will be a turning point in the start of the refinery in March. First, the northeast refinery that contributed to the increase in asphalt in March, the main refinery will be ushered in overhaul. Second, the remaining Marry raw materials in January-February will be exhausted. Processing March-April high-water Marai raw material refinery profits continue to deteriorate, will also limit the start of the refinery.

  Crude oil marketOn the other hand, Yang Jiaming said that the recent outbreak of bullish news, the sharp decline in crude oil production in Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the high probability of Iranian sanctions have already reflected the above events in the current price. The upward breakthrough of crude oil oscillations requires strong support from demand-side data. From March to April, global refinery maintenance was concentrated, and crude oil demand was weak. Last week, US refineries started operating at seasonally low levels. After the refinery started to return to normal, crude oil demand was affected. Support, in addition to the upcoming US car travel peak, the demand for crude oil is expected to bring support.Demand for Saudi crude oil is also relatively strong in May, when exports are reduced, global crude oil is expected to reach a relatively high point in May, and the recent view of strong oil oscillations is strong.

Keyword reading:crude asphalt

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