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SDIC Anxin Futures: Cotton Risk and Income Coexist
Future People's Hearts Yang Ruixia Wei Jianxu
At present, Zheng cotton fell more than 10% in two trading days, and the latest prices of ICE US cotton and Zheng cotton hit a new low in the year. In our cotton weekly report, in the report of April 16 and April 23, 2019, the ICE US cotton single position is clearly given.Two take profitSuggestions for operation. In the report of May 7, 2019, given to ICE US cotton and Zheng cottonBearish down the operating rating.
Compound CF1909 contract.Since April 1st, the CF1909 contract price has risen from the position of 15,500 yuan / ton, and rose to around 16,200 yuan / ton around April 15 and 16, and then the market showed a unilateral shock and weakened and accelerated. Combine the following policy announcements to do relevant background analysis:
1,April 12, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that this timeCotton importsNumber of sliding tax quotas800,000 tonsAll of them are non-state-run trade, in line with the expectations at the beginning of the year;
2,April 23, 2019, National Food and Material Reserve Bureau, Ministry of Finance Announcement, part of the central government in 2019Reserve cotton for rotation. Reserve cotton rotation arrangement: from May 5, 2019 to September 30, 2019, total arrangementAbout 1 million tons. Reserve cotton is to be determined;
3,June 18, 2018The United States imposes tariffs on China’s 200 billion US dollars of goods.The third batch is added 10%, announced on September 17 to confirm the addition, effective September 2410% tariffWhich involvesTextile and Apparel;
4,12 noon, May 10, 2019, tariffs on the third batch of 200 billion US dollars of goodsIncrease from 10% to 25%.
Before the announcement of the national cotton storage, Zheng cotton's main contract price rose to around 16,200 yuan / ton, most of the spot resources in Xinjiang have lock-up space, according to the Zheng cotton period basis basis trading strategy to implement the position, the late locked resources sales progress Better than uncovered cotton. In mid-April, the relevant state ministries and commissions announced the issuance of 2019 annual import cotton quotas. The rebound and rising market temporarily ended. The policy of issuing additional cotton quotas ahead of the national reserve cotton selling policy exceeded the original market expectations. At this time, the reserve cotton selling was not announced. A few days later, the state department announced that some central reserve cotton will be rotated, and the reserve policy will once again be on the market stage. For detailed comments, please refer to[National Investment Announcement] Analysis of the 2018-19 National Cotton Policy(Please click the bottom left corner of the article to read the original text)"report.
Scenario deduction assumptions.In order to prevent the reserve cotton resource assets from depreciating greatly due to the sharp drop in market prices during the sell-off stage of reserve cotton, it is possible to use the basis trade to complete the sale of the position to avoid the risk of falling prices, that is, to sell the cotton non-standard warehouse receipts. At the same time, after the completion of the policy of reserve cotton rotation, the round-up policy initiated at the time of the selection, the market provides low-cost and profitable funds for the purchase of the national reserve cotton, and minimizes the cost of national reserve cotton rotation. It is understood that domestic Xinjiang Xinjiang Xinjiang machine cotton sales are good, there are not many resources available for sale, but Xinjiang South Xinjiang sells more cotton and cost-effective. The price of ICE US cotton has been greatly affected by many parties, and the net long position of CFTC cotton futures options has fallen. The Sino-US trade consultation process has affected the global cotton spot price. If the domestic market considers purchasing imported cotton resources to supplement the national reserve exposure, the market price after the decline can complete the rotation of the cost-effective reserve cotton resources, which is difficult to sell in the storage of cotton resources. Cotton can be sold out of the market in the fall of market prices.
As of May 14, the largest number of Zheng cotton warehouse receiptsHas exceeded 990,000 tons. The domestic downstream textile market continues to be affected by the US$300 billion in commodity tariff increases. The global cotton supply and demand structure is relatively stable, and individual cotton production and consumption countries are affected by other factors and prices fluctuate drastically. At present, we initially believe thatThe basis of the domestic Zheng cotton period will converge, and the possibility of continuous expansion of the domestic and foreign cotton spreads is small.
Editor in charge: Robot RF13015
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