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    Golden Weekly Review: Don't be bullish in the long run.

    2019-02-10 11:59:19

    Huitong Net 

    Despite the bleak global economic prospects, especially the European Commission's expectation of lowering economic growth, the international political situation is also full of variables, suppressing the willingness to risk, but the US economic data is relatively better than other countries, leading investors to buy some safe-haven properties. The dollar, thereby curbing the rise in the price of gold.

    International spot gold prices fell slightly by 0.10% this week to close at $1316.61 per ounce. The weekly line ended two consecutive days, but the price of gold fell more than 1.2% on Monday. The position of the world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, fell more than 1% this week.

    European stock markets fell sharply, the German DAX index fell more than 2.4%, and gold has no shortage of demand. However, the performance of the US economy is obviously in sharp contrast with the euro zone (1.1321, -0.0018, -0.16%), which is good for the dollar, and the gold price is therefore a dilemma.

    George Gero, managing director of Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management, said: "The yield on US securities and bonds is much higher than in other parts of the world, and global investment is flowing to the United States."

    The overall outlook for gold remains optimistic

    Heraeus Precious Metals said in a customer report: "The market turmoil and increased political conflict may cause investors to continue to pay attention to gold. The gold price is expected to trade within the range of 1225-1450 USD. The overall outlook is further up, but there is no doubt, There will be some callbacks in the price of gold in the process."

    1. The economic situation in Europe has become more and more obvious.

    The European Commission has lowered its forecast for economic growth in the euro zone. The European Commission sees global trade tensions and China's economic slowdown as the main drag on the EU economy. The Brexit negotiations are still difficult, and the European side said it will not renegotiate the Brexit agreement.

    Although the Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged, President Carney said that Brexit uncertainty is creating a fog for the economy, reducing the UK's economic growth rate by 0.5% to 1.2% in 2019, while lowering the 2020 economic forecast by 0.2%. 1.5%.

    2, the Fed softened interest rate stand

    The Fed lowered its interest rate hike expectations. The key factor is the US debt problem, because rising interest rates will translate into a decline in US consumption and investment, which will lead to a slowdown in the economy, while rising interest rates will also increase market default risk. A blow to the US economy.

    The bullish role of Trump's tax reform is gradually fading. In order to promote further economic recovery, further stimulus measures must be taken. Therefore, the Fed's suspension of interest rate hike seems to be an inevitable choice, and the US dollar may be under pressure.

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    Editor in charge: Li Limeng RF13188

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