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The dollar is bleak under the Brexit storm. Gold or the king returns again.
On Thursday (March 14), the Asian market in early trading, the spot gold shocked trading around 1310 US dollars, the US dollar index fell overnight, which provides a certain upward momentum for gold. According to the news, the British Parliament rejected the proposal for a non-agreement of Brexit, and the pound rose. There will be an important vote in the UK on this trading day. In terms of data, investors need to pay attention to US import price index data and new home sales data.
With only 16 days left on March 29th officially “departing from the EU”, the lower house of the British Parliament passed a government motion with 321 votes in favor and 278 votes against it, officially clarifying that the parliament opposed the UK’s non-agreement to leave the EU. The British Parliament will vote again on Thursday night to decide whether to seek to extend Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (which is responsible for supervising the Brexit process), thereby extending the date of separation to after March 29.
The US dollar is now under pressure around the 96.50 level. The US economic data released overnight is mixed. In addition, the British pound vetoed the non-agreement of the Brexit proposal, and the surge in the pound has further pressured the US dollar index. The sky chart shows that the US dollar index is currently supported by the 60-day moving average, and the KD Tournament RSI indicator is accelerating, suggesting that the US dollar index's pullback trend may not be over. In the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index fell below the key support of the moving average, and the MA moving average accelerated. The KD indicator traded at the overbought level, and the overall trend in the day tends to be high.
The sky chart shows that due to the weakening of the US dollar index, spot gold is further higher, and the gold price is currently testing the MA moving average with resistance. In addition, the price of gold has also risen below the cloud cloud, and the KD and RSI indicators have also oscillated upwards. These signs all suggest that gold is expected to rise further. However, the cloud chart baseline is currently flattening, and the cloud layer tends to be horizontally aligned. Therefore, the upside of gold may be subject to certain restrictions. It is too early to confirm that the price of gold will continue to rise.
The 4 hours chart shows that gold has oscillated upwards and has now recovered $1,310. The MA moving average is currently accelerating upwards. In addition, the price of gold has risen above the resistance of the clouds, and the upward cloud has begun to appear, suggesting that this wave of callbacks since February 21st The trend is over. The initial resistance above is around $1314. On the downside, investors should first focus on support near $1,302.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The lower house of the British Parliament rejected the "Brexit" agreement for the second time with a vote of 391 votes against 242 votes.
2. The US core producer price index (annual rate) in February was 2.5%, which was less than the 2.6% expected by economists.
3. The US core consumer price index (annual rate) was 2.1% in February, which was less than 2.2% expected by economists.
4. The US retail sales data for December suffered a revision, from -1.2% to -1.6%.
5. Goldman Sachs lowered its US GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2019 from 0.9% to 0.5%. Also downgraded expectations are Barclays Bank (down from 2.5% to 2.0%) and the Atlanta Fed (from 0.5% to 0.2%).
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The British Parliament voted to approve Amendment A, which requires the government to exclude the possibility of no agreement to leave the European Union under any circumstances.
2. The initial value of durable goods orders (monthly rate) in the US in January was 0.4%, better than the economists expected -0.4%.
3. US retail sales data for January was unexpectedly better than expected, recording 0.2%, higher than the expected -0.1%.
4. The US construction expenditure (monthly rate) in January was 1.3%, which was better than the 0.5% expected by economists and better than the previous value of -0.6%.
Editor in charge: Lu Shan RF10057
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