Gold is expected to regain the upward momentum? Gold trend analysis operation strategy

1comment 2019-04-15 11:38:50 source:Global Forex Author:Jin Yangshu Just do it next week! Steady!


  News side:

This week, the market will once again usher in multiple risk factors. In addition, China will announce first quarter GDP and monthlyindustryProduction, Europe and the United States release manufacturing PMI and industrial production data,Federal ReservePublished the economic situation Beige Book, released by OECDChina's economyOutside the investigation report. The focus will be on "terror data" US retail sales in March, which is expected to increase by 0.8% from the previous month, or will continue to boostDollarRebound. A number of other Fed officials will deliver a speech. In addition to the tight trade/situation between Europe and the United States, the United States and Japan will also open the first round of trade/negotiation next week. Overall, if the recent global economic data shows further improvement, it may continue to exert, so the fundamentals say,Gold priceThere is still a certain amount of downside.

As the US economic data released last week were better than expected, alleviating the market's concerns about the US economic recession, the expectation of interest rate cuts seems to be further weakened. In addition, Fed officials unanimously believe that the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and it is appropriate to maintain "patience" for further interest rate hikes. It also reserves space for further interest rate hikes. Once the Fed releases interest rate signals, it does not rule out the US president again. Stand up and attack the Fed for a rate cut, while Burns also supports the president’s call for a rate cut. They believe that the Fed’s policy is not conducive to the US economic expansion. In addition, after Teresa and the EU reached a postponement of the Brexit consensus, they encountered a reluctance in the party to resign. In the strict sense, she has passed a vote of no confidence in the party, and it is impossible to hold it again within 12 months. A vote, if she encounters a dramatic opposition, it is not impossible.

This week, the market announced a number of fundamental events, and the troubled British Brexit negotiations farce finally made some progress in the EU summit. The EU agreed that the Brexit deadline will be extended until the end of October, when British Prime Minister Teresa May hinted that a compromise could be reached on the customs union or that the road to Brexit would be more moderate. Although the market still believes that there is a big variable in Brexit, and the phase of Meilong faces great uncertainty, the UK and the EU have gained more time to buffer, and the market risk aversion has cooled down. Shaken. Announced this weekEuropean Central BankThere is nothing surprising about the overall interest rate decision. The Bank of Europe continues to maintain the dovish tone. Draghi stressed that the global economy continues to face headwinds, and geopolitical factors, protectionism and other factors put pressure on the economic outlook.

  Gold marketTrend analysis:

International gold showed a trend of two days of ice on Friday. Opening at 1291.52, the highest hit 1310.62, the lowest 1289.40, closed at 1290.52, and finally closed below the opening price. The market's risk aversion eased, as well as strong US economic data, the pressure on gold from the week's high retracement, will spit out all previous declines. In addition, this weekGlobal stock marketContinue to maintain the upward trend, especiallyEuropean stock marketAfter the US stock market was extended in the UK, the market was even stronger. In addition, the IMF released the World Economic Outlook report this week. The report shows that the global economy has been sluggish in the first half of the year, but the global economy will resume growth in the second half of the year.Gold marketThe pressure on the field, the safe-haven characteristics of gold dissipated, and a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market, giving the gold price a heavy blow.

Analysis of the daily chart, the daily gold rose from Monday to Wednesday, and the high pressure on the high of 1,309 US dollars fell sharply on Thursday, a smoldering three yang, retreat all the rising space, Friday low shock correction. Below the daily gold, attention is paid to the low support of $1,280, and the break of $1,280 will open up further downside. The bottom is expected to look around $1,235. The opening price of gold today is crucial. Now that gold is above the 1290 support position, if it can rely on the 1290 to rebound stably on Monday, the gold in the market will go up the pattern until it breaks through 1320 or even higher, but once it is broken, then it will Continue to explore! Short-term trend analysis, short-term gold on Friday, the overall pressure of 1295 US dollars under the shock correction, closing 1290 US dollars, although did not continue Thursday's sharp decline, but the trend is weak. The price of gold was revised at a low level on Friday, and the probability of a break on Monday fell! On the whole, today's operational ideas refer to the point that the personal advice of the fans is to rebound from the sky, and the callback is mostly supplemented. The top focus is on the 1298-1300 first-line resistance, and the lower focus is on the 1285-1283 first-line support.

  crudeMarket trend analysis:

From the technical structure point of view, yesterday's crude oil fall is also a technical need, technical demand has been backlogged for too long, the daily line structure has already deviated from the top, and the trend line 65 strong pressure, is also the main reason for the decline in the market. At present, the demand for technical repairs is expected to continue, and the next may be further retraced to the 6th line of the 10th line, and the decline will break the 10-day line, and the possibility of expanding the decline will be even greater. In the basic aspect, as long as there is no bullish news to stimulate the market, the technical adjustment effect will be exerted. On the whole, today's operational ideas point to the fans' personal suggestion to rebound from the sky, the callback is mostly supplemented, the upper pressure on the short-term focus on 64.5-64.8 first-line resistance, below the 62.2-62.5 first-line support.

Keyword reading:Gold bulls First-line resistance Operational strategy Gold trend Gold market

Editor in charge: Lu Shan RF10057
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