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Gold trading reminder: safe-haven rebound, gold short-term look 1310
On Tuesday (May 14), spot gold edged higher and once closed a high point to $1303.41, but then fell back and fell below the $1,300 mark, which is now at $1,299.47, a drop of 0.03%.
Global stock markets fell sharply on Monday, and gold quickly rose and stood at the $1,300 mark. Fermented gold materials due to recent risk aversion will still be supported. In addition to paying attention to the economic data of the global market, the market should also pay attention to the possibility that the United States may tax European cars and parts on May 18, which may aggravate market worries and push gold further. In addition, the market's probability of a rate cut by the Fed has risen to around 80%, and the US bond yield curve has once again been upside down, which may cause the dollar to continue to fall and boost the price of gold.
The US bond yield curve is upside down and the interest rate cut is expected to heat up. Gold once broke through the 1300 mark.
On Monday (May 14th), gold rose sharply, breaking through several key resistance levels and once stood at the key pressure of $1,300. The trend of gold upside in a short period of time has obviously increased.
Sean Lusk, head of business hedges at Walsh Trading, said funds are returning to the gold market due to uncertainty around the world. In addition to concerns about the trade situation, geopolitical issues exist in parts of the world, and the United States has political uncertainty. To a certain extent, they have promoted the buying demand of gold.
Lusk also stressed that the financial market is not expected to raise interest rates again, and the economic losses caused by trade disputes can only be offset by interest rate cuts.
At present, the yield of US Treasury bonds is still in the process of continuous decline. At the same time, since the US session on Monday, the three-month US Treasury bill and the 10-year US Treasury yield have been reversed again, suggesting that the market's worries about the US economic slowdown have further rebounded. .
The Fed Watch tool shows that the current market has reached 80% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2020, which may lead to further weakening of the US dollar, thus boosting the US dollar.
International trade worries cause blood loss in global stock markets
The three major US stock indexes fell sharply. The Dow once plunged 700 points, the biggest drop since the beginning of January. The Nasdaq fell more than 3%, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 2.8%.
Affected by the US stock market crash, the Australian stock market index index opened down 1.10% on Tuesday, at 6297.60 points; the Shanghai index fell sharply below 2900 points, of which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.06% on Tuesday, down 30.88 points to 2872.83 points, Shenzheng Chengcheng It closed at 1.15% on Tuesday and fell 104.39 points to 8899.97 points.
Alec Young, managing director of global market research at FTSE Russell, said that recent international trade tensions are having a negative impact on the stock market, and investors are increasingly worried that the second half of the profit rebound may disappear.
Hikins, chief market economist at Capital Economics, said that the reversal of the yield curve on Monday was a "bad sign". Based on this, the agency believes that the Standard & Poor's 500 index will close at 2,300 points by the end of 2019, about 18% lower than the current level.
The panic index, which tracks market risk sentiment, rose sharply again on Monday, reversing the sharp decline in the first two trading days, suggesting that the market's safe-haven demand has again rebounded sharply.
Hantec Markets analyst Richard Perry said that the market will enter a safe haven in the next few weeks, and the positive sentiment accumulated in the market early this year will be challenged, and gold will benefit. The downward trend of gold for 11 weeks is expected to be broken, but it is difficult to determine whether the bulls can win the battle. Perry said that after the key resistance level of $1,291 per ounce was broken, the 1300 integer barrier became critical.
Concerned about whether the United States will move the EU
With the recent progress in international trade, the market will pay close attention to whether the US president will tax European cars and parts on May 18.
In February 2019, the President of the United States received a "232 clause" investigation report that said that the import of European cars and auto parts poses a threat to US national security, so the United States has the right to consider whether to tax this. Before the official results are announced, the US president will have a 90-day consideration period, with a deadline of May 18.
The European Parliament is about to hold elections on May 23-26, and the market generally expects populism to have a place in the European Parliament elections, which may be the most challenging moment for the European Parliament to date. Therefore, encountering the US president’s attack on this node may aggravate the turmoil in the European market. This may further promote the market's risk aversion and thus support gold.
Gold net long positions have increased sharply due to risk aversion, but need to be wary of the yen and bitcoin
With the worries of the global economic slowdown and concerns about international trade, the trend of institutional investors has also begun to change.
As of May 7, the fund manager held a net long position of 9,547 gold futures contracts, which was almost flat for the previous week, when the net long position was only 76 lots. However, there are also some short coverings, as traders buy to offset short positions and reduce short positions by 1,655.
However, it is worth noting that although the market's risk aversion has supported the gold price, as the safe-haven funds may flow into other safe-haven varieties, this may limit the increase of gold, so the market still needs to pay attention to the flow of funds.
From the recent trend, the trend of gold is still weaker than the yen and bitcoin.
In particular, bitcoin, in the past 24 hours, bitcoin once rose more than 12%, reaching $8,130, refreshing the price high since July last year, in terms of weekly, bitcoin rose more than 38%.
Although the gold ETFs data on May 14th showed that the gold position of the gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust as of May 13 was 736.46 tons, an increase of 3.23 tons from the previous trading day. However, compared with the previous trading day's decrease of 6.71 tons, it still appears to be insufficient, so it still needs to be cautious before gold breaks through the key pressure.
As gold broke through 1292, 1296 (near the 100-day moving average) and 1300 on Monday, the trend of short-term uptrend has been significantly enhanced.
As the market risk aversion has rebounded sharply in the near term, it is expected that gold will remain above the upward trend line. This means that the gold has further upside potential for the completion of the previous falling wedge shape.
A short time above the attention of 23.6% points is located at $1311, which is also an intensive transaction area in the previous period. Prior to this, $1,305 will also generate some resistance.
Below, the 100-day moving average support is $1,296. Since the 60-day moving average and the 100-day moving average form a dead end, if it breaks the 100-day moving average, it will form a short-term pressure. It is expected that gold will retest below $1,292.
Future market outlook
1 14:00 Germany April CPI annual rate final value ★;
2 15:15 US FOMC Permanent Vote Committee, New York Fed President Williams speaks ★★;
3 16:00 UK employment data for April ★;
4 17:00 Eurozone May ZEW Economic Prosperity Index ★★;
5 20:30 US April import price index monthly rate ★ ★;
Editor in charge: Lu Shan RF10057
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