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Hong Kong dollar interest rate continues to weaken
China Securities Journal Ni Wei
From December 18 last year to February 8 this year, the Hong Kong dollar interest rate has maintained a downward trend. The representative 3-month interest rate has fallen from 2.44179% on December 18 last year to the current 1.78821%, returning to 2018. Level at the beginning of May. Market analysts said that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate continued to fall, mainly due to the re-entry of funds into the market, the reversal of mainland capital investment sentiment, the shift in US interest rate hikes, and the apparent return of funds. The market expects that Hong Kong stocks may be supported in the near future as the pressure on funds in the Hong Kong market eases.
Hong Kong dollar interest rate continues to decline
In 2018, affected by the Fed’s repeated interest rate hikes, funds flowed out of the Hong Kong market. At the same time, the gradual expansion of the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread led to high carry trades. The pressure on the Hong Kong market was gradually increasing. The Hong Kong market reflected the overall situation of the Hong Kong dollar. Maintaining the upward trend of the shock, and the interest rates of all periods around December 18 last year reached a high of nearly 10 years.
However, since late December last year, the Hong Kong dollar interbank interest rate began to turn downwards and continued to fall. The representative three-month interest rate fell from 2.44179% in the last decade of December 18 last year to February 8 this year. 1.78821%, the lowest since May 2018; at the same time, other periods of Hong Kong dollar interest rate also have a downward trend, one-month interest rate fell from the high point of 2.39821% on December 19 last year to 1.01607 on February 8 this year. %, the lowest since November last year; the 2-month interest rate has fallen from 3.37393% on December 19 last year to 1.33286% on February 8 this year, the lowest since April last year.
Market analysts said that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate trend turned downwards, indicating that the pressure on the Hong Kong market has eased. This is mainly due to three factors: First, due to the year-end factors at the end of last year, the market funds have been tightened in stages, and the settlement funds are now returning to the market to increase liquidity. Second, the main index of the Hong Kong stock market has rebounded since 2019, 1 The monthly increase of more than 8%, so the mainland South China funds showed signs of recovery. Although there are still some uncertain factors that cause a strong wait-and-see mood for Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, some funds have begun to actively distribute the blue chip stocks in the Hong Kong stock market. Third, and most importantly, the Fed’s interest rate hike attitude has become obvious. The change, the market's expectations for interest rate hikes sharply cooled, and overseas funds re-accelerated back to emerging markets. The Hong Kong stock market also ushered in a sharp return of foreign capital, which led to a significant relief in funding pressure.
Liquidity pressure relief
Liquidity mitigation is often closely related to stock market performance. According to the data of Wind, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has risen by 8.13% since 2019, and its performance has been quite strong. The turnover has also rebounded significantly. The daily turnover has risen from the recent low of over 60 billion Hong Kong dollars to over 100 billion. Hong Kong dollar.
In terms of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, the net inflow of Hong Kong stocks in the first four weeks of this year was RMB -1.374 billion, -225.25 million, 1.224 billion yuan and 562 million yuan respectively. The net inflow of Hong Kong stocks through Shenzhen Stock Exchange was RMB -102 million. , 0.42 billion yuan, 1.972 billion yuan and 373 million yuan. Judging from the net inflow of a week in a week, the trend of capital recovery from the third week is very obvious. From the perspective of the net inflow of individual stocks, there have been some changes in the style of funds. From the short-term hotspots in the weak period last year to the current layout of blue-weights.Tencent Holdings(Hong Kong stock 00700),Ping An(Hong Kong stocks 02318),China Life Insurance(Hong Kong stocks 02628),Geely Automobile(Hong Kong stocks 00175),ICBC(Hong Kong stocks 01398),AIA Insurance(Hong Kong stocks 01299) and other weight blue chips have re-emerged as the focus of capital allocation.
In terms of overseas funds, according to statistics from the global capital flow detection agency EPFR, global cross-market and inter-asset funds continue to flow out of the European and American markets and continue to flow into emerging markets. In the last two weeks, the net inflows of Hong Kong local market funds were $130 million and $64.6 million, respectively.
Market analysts said that the pressure on funds in the Hong Kong market has eased, or helped Hong Kong stocks fluctuate upward. Recently, a number of major banks raised the target points of the HSI for the whole year of 2019. Morgan Stanley raised the target number of the HSI in 2019, from 28,500 to 29,850, and said that Hong Kong stocks are “shadowing” and the current market valuation can support the market. Goldman Sachs and HSBC are optimistic about the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the recent report. Goldman Sachs said that the negative factors of the Hong Kong stock market have fully reflected that it can enter the rebound market. HSBC expects the earnings growth of the HSI and HSCEI stocks to increase by 11% in 2019. And 14%, and raise the target points to 30,000 points and 12000 points. Huang Baining, head of Citibank's investment strategy and global wealth planning department, said that although Hong Kong stocks will still face more challenges in the first quarter, corporate earnings growth is expected to be not bad, and Hong Kong stock valuation has fallen back to an attractive level, so investment You can pay attention to whether there are factors that drive the market to rise.
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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