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    The market value evaporated 51.5 billion US group comments - the bomb in the W financial report is still explosive

    2019-03-14 08:10:58

    Zhitong Financial Network

    "A wave of unrest, a wave of up again", the US group comment - W (03690) was repeatedly "reinvented", the stock price fell is also plain.

    On March 11th, the investors with full enthusiasm bought the stock of the US group (03690), pushing up the stock price by 3.61%, and the stock price rose after the announcement of the results. However, the results show that the US group's adjusted net loss in 2018 has nearly doubled to 8.5 billion yuan. On March 12, the stock opened 3.9% lower and fell more than 10% in intraday trading. Promising investors are directly "live buried".

    However, the reality of "surprise" does not stop there. On March 13, Xinhua News Agency released the Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Bureau recently released a message about the network ordering platform enterprise, and the US group commentary is among them. Affected by this news, the US stocks commented that the stock price continued to fall by 4.87%, and the market value of evaporation on the two days was HK$51.5 billion.

    After the listing, the "first show" is so embarrassing, can investors still have expectations for the US group reviews?

    The acceleration of commercialization has led to a slowdown in the growth of the takeaway business.

    After the listing of the US group, the development strategy of “eat + super platform” was put forward. The business logic behind it was to use high-frequency food and beverage take-out as a flow entry, gradually diverting to the business trip and travel business, and cross-selling to build a closed-loop ecological community. , to create a super platform. A detailed analysis of each business can locate the real situation of the development of the US group reviews.

    In 2018, the number of transactions in the take-away business, the transaction amount, the average transaction amount, and the growth rate of income all declined. This was mainly because the growth rate slowed down after the base number became larger, which was normal. However, if the data for the fourth quarter of 2018 is compared with the whole year, the problem will follow.

    Zhitong Finance has compiled statistics on the take-out business of the US group since 2016-2018 and the fourth quarter of 2018. It can be seen from the table that in the fourth quarter of 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of take-away business transactions, the transaction amount, the average transaction amount, and the income were all lower than the 2018 annual level.

    Among them, the growth rate of transactions was 35.3%, while the annual value was 56.3%, the transaction amount growth rate was 40.6%, which was lower than 65.3% of the whole year, and the average transaction amount was 43.78 yuan, lower than the annual total of 44.24 yuan. The revenue growth rate was 66.15%, which was lower than the 81.37% of the year. Pulling down the full-year level, in addition to the growth rate and gross profit margin, the gross profit margin in 2018 was 13.8%, compared with 13.4% in the fourth quarter.

    It is worth noting that the liquidity rate in the fourth quarter was 13.7%, which was higher than 13.5% for the whole year, but lower than 14% in the third quarter. Therefore, although the liquidity rate in the fourth quarter was higher than the annual level, it was lower than that in the third quarter. The company explained that the competition increased and the macroeconomic reversal led to an increase in subsidies.

    For this explanation, the author does not fully agree. The downturn in the macro economy has had an impact on the external sales business. That is, the average transaction amount has fallen back in the fourth quarter, which is lower than the annual level. This indicates that users are interested in reducing expenses. However, the key point is that in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of the transaction amount is lower than the annual growth rate, and the realization rate is higher than the annual level. This is because the US group commentary has increased the proportion of commissions, and “forced” has improved the realization. rate.

    In fact, the news that the US group raised its commission on merchants has already filled the network. In 2018, the commissions were raised one after another, from 15% to 18%, and then to 19%. This year, some regions directly rose to 22%. When the commission was started in 2016, it was only 5%. With the commercialization of the US group's take-out business, small and medium-sized businesses were “sadly miserable”, and even merchants have withdrawn from the platform to consider self-raising riders.

    The increase in commissions will naturally create a “crowding out effect” for profitable merchants. The addition and reduction of merchants will lead to a decline in the growth rate of active businesses. The data can explain this very well. In the first half of 2018, the number of trading users increased by 30% year-on-year, and the number of active businesses increased by 51.6%.

    However, compared with the whole year, the growth rate of trading users was 29.3%, indicating that trading users grew steadily, while the growth rate of active merchants fell by nearly 20 points to 32.1%. That is, in the second half of 2018, the growth rate of active businesses dropped sharply. , which lowered the growth rate of active businesses throughout the year.

    After the decline in the growth rate of merchants, the number of transactions in the fourth quarter and the growth rate of transaction amounts were far below the annual level. The acceleration of commercialization has led to a slowdown in the growth of business scale. This is the biggest problem for the US group's take-out business, and it has the taste of “killing chickens and taking eggs”.

    Bright eye-catching "hematopoietic business"

    As the blood group business of the US group, the store, hotel and tourism business maintained a good growth momentum. In 2018, the transaction amount of the business was 176.8 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year. The revenue increased by 46% year-on-year to 15.8 billion yuan. The realized rate increased from 6.9 percent in 2017 to 9%, and the gross profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 89. %.

    Different from the take-away business, the data of the business in the fourth quarter is rising for the whole year. Among them, the transaction amount growth rate is 0.1 percentage points higher than the whole year, and the income growth rate is 2.05 percentage points higher than the whole year. The realization rate is 1.28 percentage points higher than the whole year. However, due to the macroeconomic downturn, the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 86.8%, which was lower than the annual level.

    The steady growth in the store, hotel and travel business was mainly attributable to the company's high-frequency take-out service to acquire users, and the cross-selling of such low-frequency businesses made the revenue of online marketing services significantly increase. In 2017, the proportion of online marketing services revenue to store, hotel and travel business was 33.64%, but by 2018, the ratio quickly increased to 42.3%, and the liquidity rate increased by 2.1 percentage points.

    However, it is worth noting that the steady growth of the store, hotel and tourism business is based on the large-scale customer diversion marketing of catering and take-out. Currently, the commercialization of the US group in the take-out business has not hurt the users, but The "injury" of the merchant is more obvious. In the long run, if the business "self-reliance portal" increases, it will cause diversion, so that the only blood-making business of the US group is damaged.

    “Tennan” new business segment

    The development of new business is mixed. In 2018, thanks to the development of the restaurant management system (RMS) and supply chain solutions, the acquisition of Mobike bicycles and the network car service launched in Nanjing and Shanghai, the transaction value of new business increased by 100% to 560. 100 million yuan.

    At the same time as the transaction amount increased, the liquidity rate of new business gradually increased, from 7.3% in 2017 to 20%. The increase in the liquidity rate drove the new business income to increase by 450.3% to 11.2 billion yuan.

    However, due to the increase in the cost of the driver of the network, the depreciation of the assets of the acquisition of Moby, the cost of goods sold in the supply chain solution and the cost of non-catering outsourcing, the cost of sales has soared from 1.1 billion in 2017 to 155 in 2018. Billions of dollars have caused the gross profit margin to change from 46% in 2017 to -37.9%.

    In the fourth quarter, the transaction amount growth rate was lower than the whole year, mainly affected by the macroeconomic downturn, but the realization rate was 32.08%, and the income growth rate was 461.7%, both of which were better than the annual level. The interest rate increased by 14.6 percentage points.

    It can be found that in the three business segments, the new business is the highest rate of realization, because the "plate" of the new business is not big enough. The transaction volume of ordering food delivery was as high as 282.8 billion yuan, and the transaction volume to the store, hotel and tourism business was 176.8 billion yuan, while the new business was only 56 billion yuan.

    The new business revenue source is more dependent on the restaurant management system (RMS) and supply chain solutions, the network car needs more investment, and the Mobike bicycle needs a clearer profit model. If the high-frequency travel to the low-frequency business is used for marketing, and the profit model is not clear, the marginal cost is difficult to drop significantly in the case of overlapping user groups.

    On the whole, the take-out business as the entrance to the traffic is the basic disk of the US group review, but due to the acceleration of the commercialization of the take-away business, the growth rate of the number of active businesses has declined, and the growth rate of the take-away business has slowed down at the same time. The acceleration of commercialization has limited the growth of scale. For the e-commerce platform, it is like a peach core stuck in the neck.

    The store and the wine business have mature business models and high gross profit. The online marketing service continues to expand, which can provide blood transfusion subsidies for other businesses. The short-term is the most certain, but whether it can enter the local life service after Ali It is to be seen to hold the position.

    And new business such as travel is still in the incubation period, although there are high-frequency properties, but the short-term drag on the company's performance is still indispensable. In the long run, after the business line increases, the probability of user overlap will also increase, and the marketing effect of the diversion will be decremented.

    Even though it is already a "small giant" with a market value of more than 280 billion, it is still a tortuous road in front of the US group.

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    Editor in charge: Zhou Zhuang RF12883

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