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Xingzheng Strategy Wang Delun: Continue to be optimistic about the long-term opportunities of the big innovation sector (100 shares)

Click volume:Number of reply: 0Report 财友3f1737do Published on 2019-03-13 16:26:35

  Investment points

  "Big Innovation 100" combination: a large innovation sector worthy of long-term attention to further configuration direction

  Up to now, the “Big Innovation 50” combination has performed well.On February 14th, we selected the combination of “Big Innovation 50” and built the “Big Innovation 50” index based on this. From January 1st to February 25th, the “Big Innovation 50” index performed very well.The cumulative increase of the range reached 36.85%, which is better than the Shanghai Composite Index (18.74%), the GEM Index (22.86%), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (23.88%), and the CSI 500 (21.02%).. If it is calculated from the release date of the index on February 14th to 25th, the “Big Innovation 50” index yield will be 12.47% in 8 trading days, which is also a good excess return compared with the 8.83% yield of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period.Whether it is in the general trend of the Wangchun market, or in the configuration of the big innovation, the strategy of Xingzhen continues to make judgments and precision.

  What other targets are also worthy of long-term attention?In order to further expand the representativeness of the “big innovation combination”, more fully tap the industry leader and the potential leader that is expected to stand out in the future.Based on the “Big Innovation 50”, we have built the “Big Innovation 100”, which is also a selection that deserves long-term attention.

  From a strategic perspective, continue to be optimistic about the long-term opportunities of the big innovation sector

Domestic capital prices continued to fall, and corporate credit spreads continued to improve.SimultaneouslyThe China Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that “the deleveraging has reached the expected target”.Foreign Sino-US trade negotiations have undergone positive changes.

The foundation of Kechuang board is expected to provide important support for the development of innovative enterprises, and the follow-up capital market is expected to play a greater role in supporting innovation transformation.

The pledge of equity pledges, the easing of refinancing policies, the deduction of research and development expenses, and the potential VAT reduction in the future are expected to further improve the fundamentals of innovative companies and stimulate innovation.

  Large innovation industry chain focuses on industry

The network foundation of the big innovation industry chain: The 5G era is coming to promote the development of communication and terminal industries. Communication field concern4G/5G wireless side, optical transmission side communication master device, optical device, especially optical module, upstream device, downstream optical communication deviceWait. Electronic field attentionPCB,Antenna, RF front-end device,panelAnd other industries.

Key applications of the big innovation industry chain: the domestic market has broad prospects for development.Cloud computing, localization, financial technologyIt is expected to usher in greater demand.

The core hardware of the big innovation industry chain: high-end manufacturing development drives the supporting investment first, pay attentionNew energy vehicles, wind power photovoltaics, industrial controls, semiconductor equipment, lithium battery equipment, automation and industrial robots.

The technology orientation of the big innovation industry chain: it is expected to usher in a three-year performance turning pointMilitary industryThe road is twisted but the future is brightInnovative medicine.

  risk warning:Sino-US trade friction exceeded expectations, US capital market volatility exceeded expectations, economic decline exceeded expectations, and policy effects were inconsistent with expectations.

  Report body

  What is the performance of the “Big Innovation 50” combination?

  Up to now, the “Big Innovation 50” combination has performed well.On February 14th, after combining the 2019 annual strategy of the relevant industry and the latest recent views, we selected a combination of “Big Innovation 50” to track the market performance of the “Big Innovation” segment. At the same time, we built the “Big Innovation 50” index based on this. This index is based on January 1, 2019, with a base point of 100 points. The market value is used to calculate the index, and the component weights are calculated according to the graded method. From January 1st to February 25th, the “Big Innovation 50” index performed very well.The cumulative increase in the range was 36.85%, which was better than the Shanghai Composite Index (18.74%), the GEM Index (22.86%), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (23.88%), and the CSI 500 (21.02%). The excess returns were very obvious.If it is calculated from the release date of the index on February 14th to 25th, the “Big Innovation 50” index yield will be 12.47% in 8 trading days, which is also a good excess return compared with the 8.83% yield of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period.

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  From a strategic perspective, continue to be optimistic about the long-term opportunities of the big innovation sector

  From 2017, the Xingzheng Strategy Team began to look forward to the relevant opportunities in the big innovation sector in a forward-looking and targeted manner.In the 2018 annual strategy "Great Innovation Times" released in November 2017, we proposed thatChina is at the starting point of a new round of innovation cycle, and various conditions are basically in place.This round of innovation is mainly characterized by technological innovations led by large companies, and is catalyzed by factors such as big country strategy, infrastructure, innovative talents, leading trends, first-level pilots, and policy orientation.At several important points since 2017, the Xingzheng Strategy Team continued to recommend the direction of “big innovation” and repeatedly sorted out related investment opportunities.In the second quarter of 2018, the strategy of "big innovation and core assets of ballroom dancing", we mentioned that the support of the capital market for large innovations is rapidly increasing under the policy warming, and the main direction of major innovation is more clear. In the investment strategy of “Innovation Spring” in the second half of 2018, we believe that the cycle of innovation growth stocks can be seen in 2-3 years. Under the big vision, 2018 is just a “spring” of great innovation. Spring needs to be actively planted to enjoy the future. The midsummer and autumn harvest, but the spring is also warm and cold, not yet in the season of blooming, we need to attach great importance to the fundamentals and grasp the changes in the trend. In the 2019 strategy "Reconstruction and Innovation Age", we once again emphasize that the current era is both a big era of reconstruction and a big era of innovation. 2019 is a year of inheritance, market volatility is less than 2018, and opportunities are more than 2018. We grasp the opportunities brought about by China's restructuring and global restructuring to enhance risk appetite. From a global perspective in the medium and long term, the current China equity market will be a rare period of strategic allocation opportunities. Between these important points, we have repeatedly reviewed the specific investment directions through special studies and conference calls.

  This year, we have accurately grasped this round of "Wangchun Quotes".Recalling the opening of 2019, the market is still shrouded in pessimism, and our Industrial Securities strategy team has been looking at the market all the way, never stopped, never hesitated. On January 1st, "Layout Wangchun Quotes" took the lead in looking at the market, suggesting the layout of "Wangchun Quotes", and configuring "Four King Kong (big brokerage / big innovation / big house enterprise / big infrastructure)" + strategic focus on home appliances, cars The plate, the view is fully verified and deductive. After that, through the "Wangchun market" prosperous on January 6, "the policy warmth boosted the "Wangchun market"" on the 13th, the "Wangchun market as scheduled" on the 20th, and the "Wangchun" on the 27th The market is booming, until the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 2,600 points, continuously pointing out the continuity of the market. On February 10th, the opening of the Lunar New Year was released, "Wangchun market is expected to exceed market expectations", February 17th released "Wangchun market continues to be prosperous", and on February 24th, "Wangchun market is as hot as fire", Shanghai Composite Index 2700 points, 2800 points, 2900 points on the station.

  From a strategic point of view, a variety of factors are expected to bring about continuous improvement in market risk appetite, which is good for the big innovation sector. First of all, the domestic and international environment has improved significantly.In the domestic sector, the corporate liquidity environment has been significantly improved. Since the policy of last year emphasized that it is necessary to focus on solving the problem of corporate financing, domestic capital prices and credit spreads have improved. In terms of capital prices, the yield on 10-year government bonds fell back to around 3%. The three-month SHIBOR fell to a low point since 2011, and corporate bond yields also fell. In terms of credit spreads, the difference between the yields of AAA 3-year corporate bonds and A-grade 3-year corporate bonds continued to expand in the first half of last year, but there was a steady state in the second half of the year, indicating that the liquidity environment of companies with different ratings improved. .Recently, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that “the de-leverage has reached the expected target”. In the future, corporate liquidity will be expected to maintain a more moderate situation.On the foreign side, Sino-US trade negotiations were extended for two days. At the same time, Trump said that the tariff rate that was originally scheduled to be upgraded on March 1 will be postponed, driving the improvement of global risk appetite. The "panic index" VIX index has fallen by 50% from its peak in December 2018. The improvement of the domestic and international environment will greatly benefit the large innovation sector represented by technological innovation.

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  Secondly, the foundation of Science and Technology Board is expected to further provide important support for the development of innovative enterprises.On November 5, 2018, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the first International Import Expo in China, proposing that "the board will be established on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the pilot registration system will support the Shanghai International Financial Center and Technology. The construction of the Innovation Center will continuously improve the basic system of the capital market." It took only 3 months. On January 30 this year, the draft of the relevant documents was formally put into effect, and the framework system of the Science and Technology Board was formally formed. In the future, as the economy shifts from “investment-driven” to “innovation-driven”, the major innovation-related sectors are expected to receive more policy support.

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  In addition, the equity pledges that have been issued last year are bail-outs.Refinancing policies continue to be relaxed, R&D expenses are deducted, and VAT reduction is expected to further improve the fundamentals of innovative companies.The pledge of equity pledges has gradually eased. Effectively prevent the spread of liquidity risks. The refinancing policy has been relaxed, which not only can supplement new liquidity sources when the company's liquidity is tight, but also help enterprises reduce financing costs and leverage ratios and prevent large-scale liquidity risks. The deduction of research and development expenses and the potential VAT reduction in the future are expected to greatly release the innovation vitality of enterprises.

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  Also worthy of long-term attention to the "Great Innovation 100" combination

  What other big innovations are also worthy of long-term attention?With the recent increase in market risk appetite, the leading stocks in the big innovation sector performed well. In the context of more market participation than before, more quality targets are also expected to benefit from this round of market. Since the previous "big innovation 50" combination has a limit of 50 on the total number of targets, many sub-division leaders can only select some representative targets to be placed. But this does not mean that there are no other leading or potential leaders in this segment. In order to further expand the representativeness of the “big innovation combination”, more fully tap the industry leader and the potential leader that is expected to stand out in the future.On the basis of “Big Innovation 50”, we have compiled and selected other major innovations that are recommended by various industries, and constructed the “Big Innovation 100”, which is also a long-term concern.The “Big Innovation 100” portfolio includes all the targets of the “Big Innovation 50” portfolio, and adds equally competitive segments or targets to fully represent the relevant investment opportunities in the future big innovation sector.

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  [Hydney strategy - industry comparison] "big innovation 100" standard combination

  risk warning

  Sino-US trade friction exceeded expectations, US capital market volatility exceeded expectations, economic decline exceeded expectations, and policy effects were inconsistent with expectations.

 

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