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Wanlian Securities--Automotive industry week view: Auto retail is getting better, the industry is expected to go out of the valley [Industry Research]

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[Summary of research report content]

    Investment suggestion: According to the retail sales data of the Federation, the average daily retail sales of 5,000 weeks in 2019 was 58,000 units, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, and showed a weekly increase trend, which was significantly better than last December. The improvement in retail data indicates that the auto market is about to emerge from the downturn in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking forward to the total sales volume in 2019 is expected to be flat compared with 2018, but the low base effect and industrial structure improvement cannot be ignored. On the one hand, the head enterprises cross the industry downturn. Taking advantage of scale, brand and technology, performance is expected to grow steadily. On the other hand, new forces will join the squid effect and eliminate backward production capacity to focus on new energy. It is expected to continue to drive the development of new energy vehicle consumption trends, while public sector institutions will promote the automotive sector. The quarterly increase in the proportion of positions indicates that it is optimistic about the prospects of the auto sector. With the introduction of the stable consumption policy, the industry is expected to usher in the valuation restoration and the gradual improvement of performance. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the low valuation blue chip and new in the automotive industry. High-growth stocks in the field. For new energy vehicles, the market has fully expected the subsidy policy of 2019 to be oversupplied. The subsidy policy will force the new energy vehicle technology to advance and cost optimization. In the medium and long term, the leading core technologies and cost advantages will remain obvious. It is worthy of attention.

    Market Review: Last week, the CITIC Auto Industry Index rose 1.44%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.93 percentage points. Among the automotive industry sub-sectors, passenger car segment 3.05%, commercial vehicle -0.31%, auto parts 1.06%, car sales and service 0.75%, motorcycles and other 0.62%. Of the 196 stocks, 88 stocks rose, 6 stocks were suspended, and 102 stocks fell. The top gainers were 60.76% of Quanchai Power, 22.95% of Chuanhuan Technology, 22.02% of Shangchai, 21.55% of Dongan Power and 15.63% of Zongshen Power. The top losers were Guangyang Co., Ltd. -8.45%, Shuanglin Co., Ltd. - 8.18 %, InBor - 8.07%, Jin Hongshun - 7.13% and Telga - 6.91%.

    Industry News: Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are expected to officially implement the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles” promotion plan in 2019; Henan Province will release new energy and network development vehicle development three-year action plan (2018-2020) to propose new energy vehicle production capacity by 2020. Up to 300,000 vehicles, the new car of the networked car accounted for 50%; Changan Automobile and Huawei fully deepened cooperation, the two sides will jointly create a new car ecology; FAW Toyota 2019 target 745,000 vehicles, five new cars.

    Company News: Fulin Seiko (300432) 2018 annual results forecast a substantial loss of 2.28 billion yuan, mainly due to bad debts of accounts receivable and sublimation of goodwill technology; China Automotive Research (601965) 2018 annual results report net profit of the mother Growth of 7.1%; Great Wall Motor (300707) 2018 Annual Results Express's net profit at home increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and the sales target for 2019 was set at 1.2 million; Changshu Auto Accessories (300580) 2018 annual results forecast net profit for the year-on-year The increase of 58% is mainly due to non-recurring gains and losses; West Pumps intends to pay 5 yuan for every 10 shares, and the capital reserve will increase 5 shares for every 10 shares.

    Risk warning: New energy subsidies have fallen more than expected, policies to stabilize automobile consumption have fallen short of expectations, automobile production and sales have fallen short of expectations, and Sino-US trade friction has intensified.

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